The upcoming summit between the European Union and China, scheduled for Thursday, is set against a backdrop of complexity and uncertainty.
This meeting comes at a significant moment, especially in light of President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, which has dramatically altered the geopolitical landscape.
Old alliances are being strained, many tensions are heightened, and global trade is facing considerable upheaval as a result of the shifting dynamics.
Traditionally at odds, Brussels and Beijing have recently begun to explore the possibility of resetting their ties in response to the uncertainties introduced by Trump’s administration.
The summit’s timing is noteworthy, coinciding with the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the EU and China, fueling speculation about a potential thaw in relations.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has commented on this occasion, suggesting that it presents an opportunity to manage differences and pave the way for a brighter future in China-EU relations.
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, and António Costa, the president of the European Council, have echoed this desire to deepen cooperation between the two sides.
However, recent developments have shifted the tone negatively.
China’s decision to restrain exports of rare earths has caused alarm throughout European industries, prompting a rebuke from von der Leyen.
She specifically noted at the G7 summit in June that China’s control over these essential materials extends beyond mere trade considerations and into the realm of using them as a strategic weapon against competitors.
In response to her remarks, Beijing labeled von der Leyen’s speech as both “baseless” and “biased,” though it extended an olive branch by advocating for a mutually beneficial partnership.
Despite the olive branch, the relationship has incurred significant damage, leaving expectations for the upcoming meeting low.
Some officials within Brussels even view the scheduling of this one-day summit in Beijing as a minor accomplishment in itself, particularly given that the meeting was originally supposed to occur on EU territory as part of a rotational hosting arrangement.
A senior official mentioned that the primary goal for the EU is a substantive, open, and direct dialogue on all aspects of their bilateral relationship.
Another official characterized the summit as an exceptional opportunity to express the EU’s concerns with the hopes of achieving short-term results.
Expectation is that China will first acknowledge these concerns, and second, take actionable steps to address them, or else the EU will have no choice but to protect its own interests.
Numerous points of contention strain EU-China relations, particularly since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Out of many issues, two stand out prominently: China’s close partnership with Moscow and the imbalances in trade due to overcapacity in Chinese industries.
European nations have expressed growing unease over seeing a permanent member of the UN Security Council support an aggressor nation in contravention of the principles outlined in the UN Charter.
Brussels has consistently labeled China as a crucial enabler of Russia’s military efforts, claiming it supplies 80% of the components necessary for the Kremlin’s weapon production.
As a result, several Chinese entities were targeted by the EU for their role in helping circumvent economic sanctions imposed on Russia.
The most recent incident involved the blacklisting of two Chinese banks, which incited a strong reaction from Beijing.
A spokesperson from the Chinese Foreign Ministry urged the EU to cease actions harming the legitimate interests of Chinese companies, stating that China would safeguard its rights and interests vigorously.
During their meeting with Xi, von der Leyen and Costa plan to discuss the situation in Ukraine, although the likelihood of their messages being received positively remains uncertain.
Notably, Xi’s lack of willingness to disengage from Russia is evident, highlighted by his participation in the Victory Day parade in Moscow earlier this year as an honored guest.
Von der Leyen remarked earlier this month that continued Chinese support for Russia is a critical factor that will influence the trajectory of EU-China relations.
In trade matters, the stakes remain high alongside similarly low expectations.
The growing trade deficit with China, which surpassed €300 billion last year, leaves the EU increasingly on edge, particularly with projections suggesting it may expand in 2025 amid sluggish consumer demand in China and the impact of Trump’s high tariffs.
In reaction to these circumstances, the European Commission has established a dedicated task force to monitor possible diversions of Chinese products from the US to the EU market.
Additionally, the EU is keeping a keen eye on Beijing’s extensive use of subsidies, which are suspected of artificially lowering prices, thereby harming European competitors.
A senior official acknowledged that the current situation is unsustainable, calling for a necessary rebalancing of economic interactions between the two sides.
Tensions escalated in October when the EU imposed substantial tariffs on electric vehicles manufactured in China, aiming to counter the effects of state subsidies.
Beijing responded by launching probes into EU products like brandy, pork, and dairy, which Brussels condemned as being unfair and unjustified.
Another chronic issue for the EU has been the regulatory hurdles imposed by China which favor domestic companies, leading to rising discontent within Europe.
This dispute has already resulted in the Commission excluding Chinese providers of medical devices from European public tenders, with China reciprocating with a similar ban.
Initially, the July summit was anticipated to serve as a platform to achieve a mutual understanding and possibly announce tentative resolutions to these ongoing disputes.
However, the increasingly hostile environment suggests that many of these issues are likely to remain unresolved, as neither party appears willing to compromise significantly.
The most achievable outcome that von der Leyen and Costa may hope for is a joint declaration on climate action as the UN climate conference approaches later this year.
Alicja Bachulska from the European Council on Foreign Relations warned that substantial concessions in other areas are unlikely.
She noted that China seems to be quite confident, evaluating the EU as too internally divided to exert any meaningful pressure or influence on Beijing, thereby closing any perceived opportunity for a significant reset in relations, despite pressing actions from the United States.
image source from：euronews
