Thursday

10-16-2025 Vol 2115

The Race Toward Artificial General Intelligence: Is Hype Clouding Reality?

In August 2023, just prior to the anticipated release of GPT-5, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman shared a striking image of the Death Star on social media. This action symbolized Altman’s conviction that his company’s latest AI model could indeed alter the course of human history.

In a previous interview from July, Altman expressed his enthusiasm: “We have discovered, invented, whatever you want to call it, something extraordinary that is going to reshape the course of human history.” He even likened OpenAI’s research efforts to the historic Manhattan Project, indicating a monumental breakthrough in artificial intelligence.

Many in the tech sector, including Altman and other esteemed figures such as Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and computer science legends Yoshua Bengio and Stuart Russell, have dedicated years to both realizing and fearing the creation of superintelligent systems. Recently, these experts have issued warnings, urging government officials about the pressing need for action on artificial general intelligence (AGI), predicting that the nation which develops AGI first will secure significant geopolitical advantages.

In a notable meeting just days before President Donald Trump’s second inauguration, Altman advised him that AGI would likely be achieved during his term, and that the U.S. should prepare for its ramifications.

The statements from these technology leaders have influenced political discourse significantly. In the past two years, both Democratic and Republican politicians have increasingly addressed AGI in their discussions and have begun to consider policies that may either harness its potential or mitigate its risks.

AI systems are already central to a multitude of emerging technologies, including robotics, biotechnology, and quantum computing. AGI could unlock even greater scientific progress, possibly affording the U.S. a robust economic boost and an unparalleled military edge in the process.

However, while AI stands as a formidable invention, the excitement surrounding AGI may be overstated. Experts highlight the current limitations of existing systems, suggesting that the arrival of superintelligence may not be as imminent as some declare. Prominent figures like Andrew Ng have also questioned the feasibility of ever creating an artificial general intelligence.

Currently, many advances in AI are evolutionary rather than revolutionary, underscoring the importance of a measured approach. As the race between nations heats up, the United States must consider this competition as a marathon rather than a sprint, especially in light of AI’s central role in the struggle against China.

China has its own burgeoning tech companies, such as DeepSeek, and established giants like Huawei, making strides in AI that may even outpace some American counterparts. Notably, China appears to be ahead in implementing and integrating robotics into its societal framework.

To effectively engage in this international AI race, the U.S. should prioritize steady progress and sustainable investment in practical AI applications. A shift in focus is necessary; rather than chasing speculative AGI, American policymakers should consolidate efforts on the realistic adoption of existing AI capabilities.

In this environment of heightened AGI dialogue, representatives from Washington have been vocal regarding their feelings about the urgency of AI regulation and advancement. During a September 2024 hearing on AI oversight, Senator Richard Blumenthal boldly proclaimed that AGI is “here and now,” while South Dakota Senator Mike Rounds introduced legislation for an AGI steering committee within the Pentagon.

Moreover, a recent bipartisan report from the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission underscored the need for a Manhattan Project-level initiative around AGI to ensure American supremacy in this domain.

These conversations reflect a growing belief that AGI development could pose existential threats, as articulated by individuals like Representative Jill Tokuda, who stated concerns over “artificial superintelligence” impacting human safety.

Beyond speeches and hearings, the commitment to AGI is evident in the policy actions taken by former Biden administration officials, exploring the regulation of AI with the looming presence of AGI in mind.

While the Trump administration’s AI Action Plan does not explicitly mention AGI, it emphasizes the need for frontier AI development and infrastructure, aligning with the desires of leading AI companies who advocate for rapid advancements in the field.

Proponents of speedily pursuing AGI often argue that an advanced system might possess the capability to self-improve exponentially, outpacing human intellect and addressing societal challenges that have long eluded solutions. The entity that achieves AGI first is predicted to reap not only economic rewards and military advancements but might monopolize AI benefits, thereby stifling competition.

Yet there are valid reasons to approach this narrative with skepticism. One major hurdle to achieving AGI is the lack of consensus among AI researchers regarding its definition and required capabilities, creating ambiguity around the notion of a final

image source from:foreignaffairs

Charlotte Hayes