As Seattle continues to breathe life into its historic districts, an unsettling truth lurks beneath the charm.
The city’s unreinforced brick buildings present a disaster waiting to happen, particularly with a significant earthquake looming on the horizon.
It has been almost 25 years since the Nisqually earthquake struck Seattle, leaving lasting memories for those who lived through it.
Leslie Morishita recalls the chaotic moments immediately following the quake.
“We got out of there and did not dare go back inside. And we were all saying ‘Are you okay? Are you okay?” she reminisces.
During the Nisqually quake, no lives were lost, but the damage tallied over $2 billion, providing a stark warning about the potential havoc of a much more powerful earthquake.
Statistically, the Pacific Northwest is overdue for a significant seismic event.
With a staggering 85% chance of experiencing a damaging earthquake in the next 50 years, Washington’s residents face considerable risk.
Megan Anderson, the state’s leading seismologist, emphasizes the urgency, stating that various types of earthquakes could strike the region.
The Cascadia Subduction Zone, notorious for producing ‘The Big One,’ could trigger a potentially devastating quake and tsunami.
Intra-slab earthquakes, like the Nisqually quake, occur much deeper in the earth, while the Seattle Fault presents an immediate threat, capable of causing severe local damage.
According to Anderson, a shallow magnitudes 7.2 quake on the Seattle Fault could result in more destruction than ‘The Big One.’
Understanding the risks, Seattle’s officials and engineers have been working diligently on strategies to fortify buildings against these eventualities.
The city’s historic buildings draw tourists and provide affordable housing, making their preservation essential.
However, it is estimated that a substantial investment of over $1 billion will be required to retrofit those aging brick structures to withstand future earthquakes.
Many building owners may find this financial burden overwhelming, prompting them to consider abandonment or demolition instead of costly retrofitting.
The question then arises: Is preserving old Seattle worth the investment?
Washington has an alarming 85% likelihood of facing a damaging earthquake in the foreseeable future, raising further concerns about the future of these historical landmarks.
Risk assessments suggest Seattle’s unreinforced brick buildings, which number over 1,100, are fundamentally at risk during seismic activity.
These fragile structures, often comprising only stacks of bricks and stones secured by mortar, are vulnerable to collapse under tension from an earthquake.
During major quakes, these buildings could experience catastrophic failures, leaving occupants in peril.
To mitigate this risk, Amanda Herzfeld, who manages a city program advocating for safety upgrades, believes in urging owners to retrofit their buildings.
Her inspiration arose when pondering the devastating impacts of Hurricane Katrina, which awakened her to the potential consequences of a similar event in Seattle.
Her bold encounter with her geology professor galvanized her resolve to pursue solutions to ensure the city’s elderly infrastructure is not left vulnerable.
In recent years, efforts have been taken to assess unreinforced masonry buildings across Seattle, culminating in a comprehensive database completed in 2023.
Through reviewing city streets and construction archives, city experts identified a substantial number of unreinforced buildings that remain at risk.
Being listed among Seattle’s unreinforced structures opens building owners to liability, as they cannot claim ignorance toward their buildings’ precarious condition — a fact that can subsequently devalue their properties.
Currently, only a handful of these buildings have undergone retrofitting or demonstrated sufficient modifications to meet safety requirements established by the city.
Members of the Seattle City Council, recognizing the potential risks, are advocating for a mandatory retrofit framework to ensure residents’ safety while offering financial assistance for building owners struggling with the costs.
Last year, a resolution passed unanimously, expressing the need, but the progress has stalled, influenced by pandemic-related budget constraints.
To illustrate the financial implications, a typical seismic retrofit project for a 20,000 square-foot brick building could easily amount to $3 million, deterring many owners from proceeding with the necessary improvements.
For many property owners, this massive expenditure can feel prohibitive, leading to a worry that some may opt to abandon their buildings altogether or sell to new owners with different intentions.
Jan Johnson, who operates the Panama Hotel situated in the historic Chinatown International District, voiced her apprehensions regarding abandonment and the potential displacement of long-time residents in the neighborhoods enriched with historical significance.
Johnson likened the current situation to what emerged when mandatory fire sprinkler systems were enforced; many could not afford the upgrades, leading to closures and ghost towns.
Experts warn that imposing mandatory upgrades could drive property owners away, resulting in increased rent or the destruction of these historic buildings altogether.
A particularly poignant example is the West Kong Yick building, housing low-rent apartments vital to the community and serving as a connection to a community built by Chinese immigrants.
As Morishita noted, it serves primarily elderly Chinese individuals with limited incomes, relying on the extremely low rents the building provides.
With significant portions of the building currently left vacant due to safety concerns, the need for seismic upgrades becomes critical to ensure these residents can continue to call it home.
Morishita’s nonprofit prepares to restore and purchase the West Kong Yick building, aiming to preserve it for the community’s elders while keeping rents affordable.
Recognizing the unique challenges that private owners face, UW’s Rick Mohler emphasized that the onus falls largely upon building owners to decide whether to retain their properties within affordable reach for residents.
He explained that nearly all owners will need to comply with necessary seismic upgrades, but the financial burden is likely to lead to increased rents as owners try to recoup costs.
Although mandatory seismic retrofitting efforts have been made in other states with some success, Washington’s efforts are still evolving, and funding seems uncertain.
In response to the financial burden, the city is proposing a shift in philosophy by lowering the standards for seismic reinforcement.
Owners would only need to ensure that their buildings can withstand the earthquake long enough for occupants to safely exit, accepting that the building may sustain significant damage post-quake.
This alternative pathway aims to promote more widespread adoption of retrofitting while keeping costs reduced, with Herzfeld asserting, “It’s better to do something than nothing.”
Aside from legislative changes, the city is exploring innovative funding solutions to ease the financial burden on property owners.
One potential mechanism on the table is the Transfer of Development Rights (TDRs), which would allow building owners to sell unused airspace to developers seeking to construct taller buildings elsewhere.
This infusion of capital could enable building owners to fund seismic upgrades while retaining their historical properties, offering a potentially win-win situation for all parties involved.
However, to realize TDR’s potential benefits, Mohler stressed that the process must be simplified and made more accessible.
Ultimately, while Washington’s newer buildings largely comply with modern safety codes, the preservation of historical structures faces multifaceted challenges.
Supporters of historic preservation argue not only for the structural safety of these older buildings but also for the rich community ties and emotional connections they represent.
As Seattle navigates this tricky balance of preserving its heritage while ensuring safety, the city is confronted with rigorous decision-making amidst a looming seismic threat.
image source from：kuow
