The U.S.-mediated summit held on August 8 in Washington, featuring the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, has been deemed a historic event by President Donald Trump. This meeting is noteworthy not only for advancing the peace process between the two nations but also for fundamentally altering the security architecture in the South Caucasus.
In the aftermath of the summit, the region confronted a new reality that significantly departs from previous tensions. The most substantial outcome of the discussions was the peace agreement signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This agreement includes provisions to formally sign the peace treaty following alterations to Armenia’s state constitution to eliminate territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Additionally, both countries have sought the dissolution of the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and have committed to opening the Zangezur corridor.
These developments, which were once considered difficult to attain, represent remarkable progress in the peace negotiations that have been ongoing since the end of the Second Karabakh War five years ago. Despite prior efforts, previous negotiations yielded limited results, primarily due to disagreements over contentious issues such as the Zangezur corridor and necessary constitutional amendments in Armenia.
President Trump remarked on the broader failures of past administrations in mediating the conflict, stating, “many tried, none succeeded.” This lack of success can be attributed not only to Armenia’s stance but also to the flawed mediation strategies employed by external parties. In particular, the Biden administration’s decision to impose sanctions on Azerbaijan following the collapse of the separatist regime in Karabakh undermined its credibility as a mediator. Furthermore, the pro-Armenian stance taken by French President Emmanuel Macron during EU-mediated talks led to the decline of what had previously been a productive format.
As the geopolitical landscape shifted, Russia, once the dominant power in the South Caucasus, found its influence diminishing in the wake of its involvement in Ukraine. The former hegemon’s waning power has led to a reduction in its role in the peace negotiations, creating an opportunity for new actors to emerge.
A pivotal achievement from the Washington summit is the agreement regarding the Zangezur corridor, initially proposed in the 2020 trilateral agreement between Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. This corridor was meant to operate under Russian control, providing Moscow with significant geopolitical leverage in the region. However, following the summit, the corridor will now function under U.S. oversight and is officially named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP).
This transition marks a significant geopolitical setback for Russia, signifying its diminished role in the South Caucasus after decades of influence. Although Russia still maintains a degree of control over two breakaway regions in Georgia, its influence in Armenia and Azerbaijan has been severely curtailed.
A Russian official, Konstantin Zatulin, articulated that the Washington agreement signifies a shift away from Russian dominance in the region, potentially leading to the withdrawal of Russian military presence from Armenia. This sentiment was echoed by a Russian political analyst, who characterized the deal surrounding the Zangezur corridor as a “stab in the back” of Russia, suggesting the establishment of a U.S. military foothold in Armenia.
The outcome of the summit aligns with the larger context of the Second Karabakh War, which concluded with Azerbaijan reclaiming territories previously occupied by Armenia. While Azerbaijan may maintain a multivector foreign policy aiming to nurture positive relationships with neighboring states, the strategic dynamics in the region have undeniably shifted toward greater U.S. involvement.
Moving forward, the necessity for Russia to reevaluate its engagement strategy in the South Caucasus becomes increasingly evident. It is crucial for Moscow to approach the region’s nations as equal partners rather than attempting to assert dominance.
The Washington summit has thus opened a new chapter in Armenia and Azerbaijan’s relations, while simultaneously reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus, bringing to the fore new realities and challenges that lie ahead for the region.
image source from：commonspace
