Preparations for the 2030 U.S. census are reportedly in progress, with President Donald Trump announcing plans to launch a ‘new’ census that would exclude millions of people living in the country without legal status.
This proposed change marks an unprecedented departure from how the country has completed population tallies since the inaugural U.S. census in 1790.
In a statement shared via social media, President Trump stated that he has directed his administration to begin this census work immediately.
However, the impact of such a census raises numerous constitutional and legal questions, as the 14th Amendment mandates the inclusion of the ‘whole number of persons in each state’ when determining apportionment for Congress and presidential elections.
The details surrounding President Trump’s proposal remain sparse, leaving many questions about its implementation. For example, it remains uncertain whether he refers to the regularly scheduled 2030 census or a different tally altogether.
Trump’s post indicated that he has tasked the Commerce Department, which oversees the Census Bureau, to leverage ‘the results and information gained from the Presidential Election of 2024’ for the new census.
The rationale behind utilizing election results for the census is unclear.
The press office for the White House has not provided any comments in response to inquiries about the proposal.
The Commerce Department has stated that the Census Bureau will begin adopting modern technology tools to enhance understanding and analysis of census data.
These changes are intended to reflect the number of legal residents in the United States.
However, the Constitution does not grant the president authority over the census.
Article 1 of the Constitution grants Congress, not the President, the power to conduct the ‘actual enumeration’ of the population in a manner prescribed by law.
According to Title 13 of the U.S. Code, Congress has established a decennial census schedule that the Commerce Department must follow.
Simultaneously, the commerce secretary possesses the latitude to conduct a mid-decade census, like one in 2025, but the resulting data cannot influence the redistribution of congressional seats or Electoral College votes.
Data collection methods used in the mid-decade census must be communicated to Congress ahead of time.
While there is a constitutionally mandated census every ten years for congressional seat redistribution, it remains uncertain if a different annual headcount could be executed and utilized for reapportioning House seats and Electoral College votes.
Trump’s recent push aligns with a bill introduced by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican from Georgia, which aims to not only exclude noncitizens from apportionment counts but also calls for an entirely new census and redistricting prior to the 2026 midterm elections.
In response to the bill, Trump expressed optimism, stating, ‘It’s going to get in. It’s going to pass, and we’re going to be very happy.’
Various other Republican lawmakers have reintroduced bills this year seeking to exclude individuals without legal status from the 2030 census apportionment, a controversial proposition that has drawn sharp scrutiny.
President Trump’s remarks also came amid an overt push for Republicans in various states to engage in gerrymandering to secure additional U.S. House seats.
John Bisognano, the president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, condemned Trump’s actions, asserting, ‘It is no coincidence that President Trump wants to manipulate the census data at the same time he is pressuring Republican states to gerrymander even more.’
Bisognano described the effort as part of a broader campaign to undermine the U.S. Constitution and ensure predetermined electoral outcomes to consolidate power and evade accountability.
In the wake of Trump’s announcement, the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), which previously challenged his past efforts to modify the 2020 census, indicated that they may prepare for another legal confrontation.
Sophia Lin Lakin, director of the ACLU’s Voting Rights Project, emphasized that any attempt to exclude U.S. residents without legal status from the census would conflict with the Constitution, federal law, and established legal precedent.
Lakin added, ‘We won’t hesitate to go back to court to protect representation for all communities.’
Legal experts suggest that if Trump is indeed referring to the 2030 census, there may be opportunities for his successor or Congress to eliminate questions related to immigration status before the census material is finalized in 2029.
The Bureau is in the process of preparing for the upcoming census, having recently published the initial version of its operational plan while starting recruitment for temporary workers for the 2026 Census Test.
This major field test, which is crucial for 2030 planning, is set to take place in multiple regions across the South and West.
Concerns regarding the integrity of the data and its implications for public policy have been reignited following Trump’s recent moves, especially after the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner.
Meeta Anand, senior director of census and data equity at the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, voiced apprehension over the potential manipulation of data.
Anand stated, ‘To me, that represents an attempt to undermine and sow doubt on existing data and to raise the specter of manipulating data going forward.’
Experts warn that historical census efforts have firmly established the practice of including all individuals residing in the United States in population counts.
The push for changes in how the census operates has stirred comparisons to Trump’s efforts during his first term, where the Supreme Court ultimately prevented a question regarding U.S. citizenship status from being included on 2020 census forms.
However, the court did not rule on whether the president has the authority to exclude individuals without legal status from the apportionment counts.
President Joe Biden signed an executive order in 2021 reaffirming the practice of counting all persons residing in the states.
This move reinstated a policy that Trump had revoked immediately upon taking office for his second term.
While exploring questions regarding immigration status in the census remains untested, research from the Census Bureau indicates that adding such queries could lead to unreliable self-reported data, especially in households with Latino or Asian American residents.
Population totals generated from the census have far-reaching implications, influencing the distribution of federal funding for public services across communities nationwide.
Furthermore, bureau researchers have warned that including questions about citizenship status could significantly increase costs and harm the quality of other demographic statistics compiled by the census.
Attempts to produce detailed locality-specific citizenship data, if undertaken, could yield ‘substantially less accurate’ results than information derived from current government records.
In previous rulings, the Supreme Court identified concerns with the Trump administration’s justification for a citizenship question, deeming it potentially contrived.
Consequently, Trump issued a 2019 executive order outlining alternative reasons for collecting citizenship data that surpassed existing estimates.
These justifications included influencing immigration policy, eligibility rules for public benefits, and generating counts of undocumented individuals in the U.S.
In a 2020 memorandum, Trump solidified his ambition to use the census data to allow for the potential exclusion of undocumented immigrants from congressional apportionment.
Historically, census records have not included questions about the citizenship status of every individual living in the United States, marking a significant shift from over two centuries of precedent.
Ultimately, President Trump’s recent comments signal a continuing effort to challenge traditional census practices and raise questions about the future of representation in American democracy.
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