A joint peace declaration signed by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the White House on August 8 paves the way for enhanced stability, peace, and prosperity in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
The engagement by the United States in the lead-up to the declaration has been significant, and ongoing U.S. involvement will be crucial for the successful ratification and execution of the agreement.
This declaration carries substantial geopolitical weight as it sends important signals to Russia, Iran, and other regional stakeholders. The U.S. now finds itself positioned to play a pivotal role in the South Caucasus by fostering economic development, facilitating the proposed transit corridor, and countering malign influences in the area.
Importantly, Turkey could act as a buffer against any detrimental interference in the region. This recent breakthrough reflects a shift in policy that many U.S. ambassadors to Azerbaijan advocated for—transforming the perception of the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict from mere management to resolution.
However, it is essential to note that this joint declaration does not constitute a final peace agreement. The ongoing conflict, which escalated into warfare in the dying days of the Soviet Union, cannot be resolved by this declaration alone. The first paragraph of the Washington document highlights that President Donald Trump and the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan “witnessed the initialing of . . . the agreement on establishment of peace and inter-state relations” between the two nations, underscoring the necessity for further actions to accomplish the signing and eventual ratification of this peace agreement.
The declaration is filled with constructive provisions that, if implemented effectively, could lead to a lasting peace in the region.
Part of this plan includes enabling road, rail, and potentially oil and gas pipeline connections across Armenia’s Syunik region, creating a link between mainland Azerbaijan and its Nakhichevan exclave. The declaration asserts the importance of opening communication between the two countries on the foundations of respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.
It continues: “These efforts must include unimpeded connectivity between the main part of the Republic of Azerbaijan and its Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic through the territory of the Republic of Armenia with reciprocal benefits for international and intra-state connectivity for the Republic of Armenia.”
Furthermore, the declaration indicates that Armenia will collaborate with the U.S. and mutually determined third parties to establish a framework for the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) connectivity project within Armenia.
Both nations reaffirm their commitment to pursue these objectives in good faith and promptly.
For this declaration to bring about the desired peacebuilding outcomes, it is critical for Washington to remain committed and visibly engaged.
The declaration envisages U.S. private-sector involvement in constructing and maintaining new roadways across Armenia’s twenty-seven-mile stretch of Syunik province, as well as a modern rail link and potentially new oil and natural gas pipelines. The intention is to establish connections not just between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but also to link Turkey with Europe and further extend to Central Asia, and possibly South Asia.
Yet mere aspirations and verbal affirmations will not suffice. The White House needs to empower officials from various departments such as the State Department, the Commerce Department, and the Trade Development Agency to work collaboratively with authorities, businesses, and U.S. firms in Armenia and Azerbaijan.
This concerted engagement is vital for actualizing the envisioned transport communications and for realizing the associated peace, security, and prosperity benefits.
Additionally, the State Department and other governmental agencies should engage with Turkey, Georgia, and Central Asian states to maximize the new transport links’ commercial and geopolitical potential, particularly as a counterbalance to China’s ambitions in the region.
The successes achieved in constructing energy pipelines in the South Caucasus after the Soviet Union’s collapse can serve as a guiding model for this new chapter for the region.
Moreover, the U.S. should support Armenians and Azerbaijanis in taking essential steps toward achieving a genuine, lasting peace. This support should encompass efforts to foster connections between the two populations and promote mutual understanding after decades of hostility. The U.S. government has a history of launching initiatives worldwide that have effectively challenged biases, encouraged greater understanding among former adversaries, and laid the groundwork for enduring peace.
The need for such initiatives is pressing, especially since many experts who once contributed to these efforts have been released from service recently, resulting in a significant loss of institutional knowledge within the State Department, the U.S. Agency for International Development, and related organizations. There remains an opportunity to recall and deploy some of these experts to realize the objectives outlined by the White House in the region.
In addition, various non-governmental organizations, universities, and think tanks with proven expertise in peacebuilding could further bolster these efforts.
The meetings and declaration from August 8 represent crucial steps toward a lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, as commendable as these initiatives are, history will evaluate their success based on subsequent developments.
Substantial additional effort is required to achieve enduring peace, stability, and prosperity in the region, and sustained active engagement from the U.S. will be critical to turn this vision into reality.
image source from：atlanticcouncil
