In a notable shift in the American beer market, Michelob Ultra, a light variant of the historic Michelob brand, has officially reclaimed its position as the best-selling beer in the United States, surpassing Modelo Especial, the popular Mexican beer.
This development prompted Michelob Ultra to attribute its success to the branding of a “superior” product and an emphasis on promoting an “active and social” lifestyle, aligning itself closely with the NBA, a league it sponsors.
Contrastingly, Modelo has suggested that its declining sales are linked to the fear among immigrants regarding public outings, a concern stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump’s deportation policies.
Market analysis from Circana indicates that while Michelob Ultra has overtaken Modelo Especial in sales volume across bars, restaurants, and retail outlets, Modelo still leads in revenue generation. The higher cost of Modelo, which is approximately $7 more per case than Michelob Ultra, explains this discrepancy, revealing a scenario where Michelob Ultra experiences greater unit sales, but Modelo commands higher income per sale.
This data reflects that the decrease in Modelo’s sales is not due to issues with taste or marketing strategies. William Newlands, the CEO of Constellation Brands, which distributes Modelo, has highlighted that the real challenge lies with the prevalent concerns among Modelo’s consumer base, with nearly half of its clientele being Hispanic individuals wary of venturing out due to fears of encountering Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
Newlands expressed these worries as early as April, stating, “A lot of consumers in the Hispanic community are concerned right now. Social gatherings, an area where the Hispanic consumer often consumes beer, are declining today as part of these overarching concerns that they have.”
According to Newlands, significant social events such as barbecues, birthday celebrations, and neighborhood soccer games, which would typically see consumption of Modelo, have substantially diminished. This decline contributed to a reported 1% drop in Constellation’s beer sales for the last quarter.
Further supporting this decline, market studies reveal a pattern of reduced spending among Latino consumers, noting an 11.3% drop in purchases at supermarkets in the first quarter of 2025 when compared to the prior year. Also, spending in pharmacies fell by 7.5%, while visits to convenience stores decreased by 9.7%.
Historically, Modelo had established a strong presence in the United States by connecting with the Latino community, positioning itself as a premium imported beer symbolizing a cultural identity. This success followed an upward trend over the past decade, aligned with the increasing purchasing power of Hispanic consumers who favored brands that resonate with their identity.
In June 2023, Modelo marked a significant milestone by surpassing Bud Light for the first time, thereby claiming the title of the country’s best-selling beer. Now, however, Modelo, which has become a symbol of Mexican pride, faces unintended repercussions due to the current administration’s policies.
It’s worth noting that several other companies, including Burlington, Foot Locker, Colgate-Palmolive, and Monster, have similarly reported declines in sales attributed to reduced demand among Hispanic consumers. John Faucher, vice president of Colgate-Palmolive, acknowledged the notable impact, confirming lower traffic from Hispanic customers in March.
On the other hand, Michelob Ultra has cemented its position by effectively targeting a different demographic, primarily young professionals who largely do not share the immigration-related concerns faced by many in the Hispanic community.
This demographic distinction is further emphasized by Michelob’s messaging, showcasing an active and social lifestyle that starkly contrasts with the anxiety prevalent in immigrant neighborhoods today.
Since June 2023, Michelob Ultra saw its sales skyrocket, surpassing Bud Light to become the second best-selling beer in the U.S., just trailing behind Modelo during that period. As of now, it has maintained its top position for over 50 weeks.
Kyle Norrington, chief commercial officer at Anheuser-Busch, the parent company of Michelob, credited the brand’s relentless strategy: “invest, learn and execute as the Official Beer Sponsor of America’s most prominent sports and active-lifestyle moments.”
Looking ahead, Constellation has projected an anticipated decline in net beer sales of between 2% and 4% for the upcoming year, as the market adjusts to shifting consumer behaviors amid significant social concerns.
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