The hostility between the United States and Venezuela has escalated to unprecedented levels during President Donald Trump’s presidential cycles.
For over six years, the complex Venezuelan political conflict and its international ramifications have been analyzed and scrutinized, yet recent confrontations have heightened tensions significantly.
The deployment of U.S. warships in the Caribbean and the deadly attack on a drug-trafficking boat, purportedly linked to Venezuela, raises alarms as all eleven crew members were killed.
Gone are the days of cryptic hints like former White House national security adviser John Bolton’s infamous note stating “5,000 troops to Colombia,” which surfaced during a January 2019 press conference.
This has unleashed a military presence characterized by eight warships, 4,000 U.S. military personnel, and a nuclear submarine positioned along Venezuela’s northern coast.
The recent intercept of a vessel serves as a crucial moment, reflecting the deteriorating relations between the two nations and emphasizing U.S. foreign policy’s capacity to exert its influence.
By the conclusion of President Trump’s first term, relations between the U.S. and Venezuela began to fray further, underscored by the closure of the United States Embassy in Caracas and the withdrawal of diplomatic personnel.
This shift marked the commencement of stringent sanctions aimed specifically at crippling Venezuela’s oil economy by penalizing third parties engaged in crude oil transactions with the country.
The U.S. narrative focused on exerting pressure on Nicolás Maduro, who had been reelected amidst accusations of electoral fraud, asserting that “all options are on the table.”
This vague yet menacing assertion enabled President Trump to challenge Chavismo amid the ongoing geopolitical stalemate, framing it as a scenario where Maduro might cling to power at all costs.
Over the past six years, Venezuela has consistently accused Washington of orchestrating conspiracies to instigate a regime change.
During 2019 and 2020, the Maduro administration dismantled initiatives that escalated diplomatic tensions, leading to a persistent climate of alertness.
This environment has facilitated a repressive crackdown against dissent, resulting in imprisonments, forced exiles, and the suppression of protests, while simultaneously reinforcing the anti-imperialist narrative central to Chavismo.
Among the most notable of these failed attempts at intervention was Operation Gedeón, involving Venezuelan dissident soldiers from Colombia and private U.S. security forces, including ex-Green Berets, aiming to infiltrate Venezuela to dethrone Maduro.
Despite denials of U.S. and Colombian involvement, Venezuela accused them, further solidifying the belief in an international conspiracy against the Maduro regime.
The Biden administration signified a shift in approaches, with sanctions evolving into oil licenses, and Chavismo indicating a willingness to negotiate with the opposition, albeit resulting in unfulfilled promises.
However, these changes in diplomatic dynamics deteriorated following the 2024 presidential elections, where Maduro retained power amidst allegations of election fraud.
President Trump’s second term has seen a more overt approach, with escalating pressures evident.
In just seven months, mechanisms for exerting pressure have rapidly transformed, highlighted by a meeting with special envoy Richard Grennell, leading to agreements around the exchange of American prisoners for Venezuelans deported from the United States.
Additionally, the suspension of Chevron’s operational license has further complicated matters, positioning Maduro as a key figure in U.S. allegations of drug trafficking.
Washington has labeled him the leader of the alleged ‘Cartel of the Suns,’ a supposed organization run by Venezuelan military forces facilitating drug shipments to the U.S.
Maduro has also been connected to Tren de Aragua, a criminal gang identified as a source of various societal issues in the United States, with the reward for his capture recently escalating from $25 million to $50 million.
This places him squarely among the principal targets of the U.S. anti-drug agenda in the Caribbean, a characterization rejected by Chavismo and embraced by the unified opposition under María Corina Machado.
Maritime tensions have primarily revolved around the interception of foreign oil tankers within disputed maritime boundaries east of Venezuela, particularly with the emergence of Guyana as an oil player.
In the territorial dispute over Essequibo and the delineation of the Atlantic coastline, the United States has indirectly supported Guyana in asserting its claims.
Venezuela has actively defended its stance through diplomatic channels and its naval presence.
Following the fatal incident involving the drug-running vessel, confirmed by the United States, Venezuela has responded cautiously to President Trump’s threats.
Initially, Caracas dismissed the attacks, suggesting that video evidence of a boat explosion was fabricated using artificial intelligence.
However, in recent weeks, Chavismo has issued urgent calls to the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Community (CELAC) and the United Nations, demanding the removal of all U.S. military assets from the Caribbean, which they label as the most significant regional threat witnessed in a century.
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