In early 2025, President Donald Trump made headlines by announcing the United States’ second withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement. This decision sparked concerns that it would undermine global efforts to combat climate change and diminish the United States’ influence on the world stage. A pressing question emerged: who would assume leadership in the resulting power vacuum?
The U.S. initially joined the Paris Agreement in 2015, following a significant joint commitment by President Barack Obama and China’s Xi Jinping. Under this agreement, the U.S. pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 26% to 28% below 2005 levels by 2025, alongside a promise of financial assistance to help developing nations deal with climate-related issues and transition to renewable energy sources.
While some lauded the U.S. engagement, others viewed the initial commitment as insufficient. To date, the U.S. has achieved a 17.2% reduction in emissions compared to 2005 levels, falling short of its original goal, partially due to political and operational challenges encountered along the way.
After just two years of progress, Trump formally announced in 2017 that the U.S. would exit the agreement, citing potential job losses, economic burdens, and perceived unfairness towards countries like China, which was not set to begin reducing emissions for several years. This decision faced sharp criticism from scientists, politicians, and business leaders, who labeled it as “shortsighted” and “reckless.” Many feared that the commitment from nearly all countries could be jeopardized.
Surprisingly, the Paris Agreement persevered through this initial setback. In response, various U.S. businesses, including tech giants like Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Tesla, continued to commit to the goals laid out in the agreement. Additionally, Hawaii became the first U.S. state to align with the treaty’s mandates, while a coalition of cities and states formed the United States Climate Alliance to persist in curbing climate change.
Internationally, leaders from Italy, Germany, and France pushed back against Trump’s claims regarding the renegotiation of the Paris Agreement. Other nations, including Japan, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, reaffirmed their commitment to the climate pact. When President Joe Biden took office in 2020, he reinstated U.S. participation in the agreement.
Now, with Trump’s retraction of U.S. participation and the anticipated rollback of climate policies, a new wave of global leaders is stepping forward. On July 24, 2025, China and the European Union released a joint statement, reinforcing their determination to enhance climate targets and achieve them. Although not directly named, the statement alluded to the United States, emphasizing that major economies must bolster their efforts to address climate change amidst a “fluid and turbulent international situation.”
The strength of the Paris Agreement lies, in part, in its non-binding legal framework, which allows countries flexibility in their commitments. Consequently, the departure of a single participant does not trigger immediate sanctions or render the actions of remaining nations inconsequential. The agreement successfully survived the first U.S. withdrawal, and engagements suggest it will continue to endure despite the latest change.
Observations from international climate meetings show an encouraging trend among countries opting to move forward independently. Emerging as a significant contender in climate negotiations is the Like-Minded Group of Developing Countries—a collective of low- and middle-income nations that includes China, India, Bolivia, and Venezuela. These countries are advocating for developed nations to fulfill their commitments to reduce emissions and provide financial support to developing countries.
China appears poised to fill the absence of American leadership following the U.S. exit. In 2017, China’s disappointment over the initial U.S. withdrawal prompted it to uphold its climate commitments, pledging to contribute $3.1 billion in climate finance to developing nations—outdoing the U.S. commitment of $3 billion at that time.
This time, China is leveraging its environmental leadership to bolster its economic and political influence, supporting growth and partnerships in developing nations through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative. China’s investments in renewable energy have surged, featuring significant projects in solar energy in Egypt and wind energy development in Ethiopia.
Despite being the world’s leading coal consumer, China continues to heavily invest in renewables. By 2024, it accounted for half of the global renewable energy capacity development. Although it missed a climate pledge submission deadline, China aspires to peak emissions before 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2060 while heavily investing in the advantages of renewable energy.
Conversely, the U.S. government is scaling back support for wind and solar energy projects. Recently, China expanded its carbon trading market, targeting emissions reductions in sectors such as cement, steel, and aluminum where it can exert substantial influence.
The United Kingdom is not lagging behind either; it has enhanced its climate commitments and is focused on becoming a global clean energy leader. In 2025, the U.K. pledged an ambitious 77% reduction in emissions by 2035 when compared to 1990 levels. The new commitment is detailed and sector-specific, with concrete plans for cutting emissions in power, transportation, construction, and agriculture, and it includes robust funding to assist developing nations in sustainable growth.
On the corporate front, while many American firms have moderated their public climate commitments to avoid conflicts with the current administration, numerous companies are persisting with their green initiatives. A report from USA Today and Statista’s “America’s Climate Leader List” highlighted that approximately 500 large companies have successfully reduced their carbon intensity—science behind carbon emissions relative to revenue—by 3% compared to the previous year.
The growing list has expanded from about 400 companies in 2023, illustrating a tangible commitment to sustainability despite a reduction in federal support and regulations.
Looking ahead to the 2025 climate talks, the future of the Paris Agreement remains secure. Its unique structure, allowing countries to set their own goals without overly relying on the U.S., indicates that the agreement will endure beyond the current political landscape.
The essential inquiry is whether both developed and developing countries will successfully balance the dual imperatives of economic progress and ecological sustainability while leading the charge on climate action. The United Nations climate conference (COP30) in Brazil this year will be crucial in determining how nations plan to advance and who will emerge as the preeminent leader in global climate efforts.
image source from：dornsife
