The United States is intensifying its military presence along South America’s northern coast, which the Trump administration claims is aimed at combating “narco-terrorists.” However, many analysts are skeptical, arguing that the real intent appears to be regime change in Venezuela.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, in response to what he perceives to be an imminent threat, has taken protective measures. Following a significant emergency decree in September and formidable rhetoric about a “republic in arms,” Maduro has mobilized militias and reservists throughout the country.
The Venezuelan leader has directed armed forces, police, and militias to establish 284 battlefronts as part of a national defense strategy that enhances troop levels along sensitive borders. Near Colombia, a significant massing of 25,000 soldiers indicates preparation for potential infiltration.
Additionally, the National Bolivarian Militia, consisting of approximately 4.5 million civilian volunteers and reservists, has reportedly been activated as part of this mobilization. This force has been receiving training in weapon handling and tactics, effectively integrating local “people’s defense” committees into Venezuela’s defense architecture.
The military posture comes amid a buildup by the United States in the Caribbean, which highlights a clear military advantage for Washington, boasting a far more capable and sophisticated military force than Venezuela. Nevertheless, as a Latin American politics expert suggests, such military might may not suffice to oust Maduro or to encourage the opposition within the country. In fact, any direct U.S. military action might inadvertently bolster Maduro’s standing.
Maduro’s regime does not stand alone; it enjoys considerable backing from powerful international allies. Reports indicate the Venezuelan leader has access to around 5,000 Russian Igla-S man-portable anti-aircraft missiles, positioned strategically across the nation.
A recent landing of a Russian Il-76 cargo plane in Caracas, linked to a sanctioned military logistics carrier, further indicates Russia’s capacity to provide military support and resources at will.
Iran’s involvement in Venezuela, particularly in its drone program, also underscores the regime’s support structure, with technology seeded and developed through partnerships with Iranian technicians.
Cuba has embedded intelligence and military advisers in Venezuela’s armed forces for over a decade, a significant force multiplier enabling Maduro to maintain control and suppress dissent.
While these allies may provide resources and strategic support, experts assert that they are unlikely to shield Maduro from a concerted American campaign.
Internally, the Venezuelan opposition is fragmented and weakened, struggling to rally following a disputed 2024 election that many believe was marred by fraud and subsequent repression. The Democratic Unitary Platform remains divided between factions prioritizing pressure and participation.
Although the opposition received a morale boost when María Corina Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize on October 10, the significance of this event remains uncertain, failing to shift dynamics significantly.
The likelihood of the opposition successfully overthrowing Maduro without significant catalysts, such as fractures within security services or widespread civil mobilization, appears slim. Maduro’s regime benefits from a robust domestic security apparatus and control over the judiciary and electoral processes.
The prospect for any immediate shift in governance also faces challenges as Maduro has publicly stated his unwillingness to accept defeat in any electoral contest.
Venezuela’s population, particularly in South Florida, where a substantial Venezuelan exile community resides, views the U.S. military buildup as a potential turning point, but they navigate a complex landscape of U.S. immigration and policy challenges.
Opposition leaders publicly maintain that change must come from within Venezuela while increasingly courting international pressure to support their agenda.
The Trump administration has demonstrated a robust willingness to apply pressure on Maduro’s regime and empower the opposition. Significant military deployments, such as destroyers and amphibious ships throughout the U.S. Southern Command area, signal escalating intentions.
On October 24, the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group was redirected to the Caribbean, extending military capabilities within striking distance of Venezuela.
Simultaneously, U.S. operations targeting suspected drug trafficking vessels will likely continue, having already resulted in at least 13 strikes and numerous casualties in the region.
President Trump has consistently linked these cartels to Maduro’s government, raising speculation about further military escalations, including potential precision strikes on Venezuelan territory.
With the U.S. aerial assets such as F-35s stationed in Puerto Rico, the Pentagon possesses various options for action. In conjunction with overt military movements, covert operations, including CIA activities, may intensify.
The White House has confirmed the CIA’s authority to operate within the country, hinting at potential covert attempts to disrupt Maduro’s leadership. A recent failed plot to recruit Maduro’s chief pilot for a dramatic defection underscores the psychological operations in play amidst growing tension.
Historically, attempts to remove Maduro, including a 2018 drone attack and a failed operation in 2020, have not succeeded but have fueled paranoia within his administration, prompting increased crackdowns on dissent.
Military action against a regime rarely results in a straightforward change of governance; instead, it often leads to intensified crackdowns as leaders respond to perceived threats.
Considering potential outcomes of U.S. military intention, analysts underscore that a rapid collapse of Maduro’s government is implausible.
There exists the potential for a targeted strategy aimed at dismantling the regime’s repressive mechanisms, which could encourage elite defections. However, entrenched internal security practices and years of socioeconomic distress complicate any glue plans for immediate regime change.
The preferred trajectory may instead involve a gradual tightening of pressure—maritime and aerial operations complemented by covert strategies aimed at isolating Maduro.
Nevertheless, this approach poses the risk of entrenching hardliners within the regime while worsening the ongoing humanitarian crisis that has already displaced nearly 8 million people.
Even if the U.S. successfully dismantles Maduro’s regime, the likelihood of establishing a stable administration in Venezuela is uncertain at best.
Three critical factors will likely influence the situation moving forward: the frequency of Russian military aid flights to Caracas, the scope of U.S. military targets, and the potential for opposition mobilization by Venezuelans.
Increased Russian cargo flights suggest greater military assistance, while any U.S. strikes on key installations would signify an escalation beyond mere counternarcotics operations.
Finally, credible demonstrations and protests within Venezuela could also affect Washington’s willingness to escalate military measures.
Despite maintaining a narrative focused on counter-narcotics and counter-terrorism, the evidence increasingly suggests that the U.S.’s engagement may represent a gradual push toward regime change, the outcomes of which remain highly uncertain.
image source from：theconversation
