After a week dominated by typical August heat, Central Texas is experiencing a shift in weather patterns as a tropical disturbance makes its presence felt.
This disturbance, which moved onshore Friday across South Texas, is leading to an influx of moisture and slightly cooler temperatures for the first half of the weekend.
This marks the third time this year that the National Hurricane Center has flagged an area in the Gulf of Mexico for possible tropical cyclone development, with this latest disturbance at one point having a 50% chance of evolving into a tropical depression before reaching land.
Such developments indicate that the tropics are beginning to energize as we approach the historically active period of hurricane season, notably peaking around September 10.
In parallel, Hurricane Erin emerged as the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2025 storm season, gaining strength while churning in the open waters of the western Atlantic.
Forecasts suggest that although Erin is headed westward toward North America, it is expected to remain over water while making a curve toward the north on Sunday.
As it approaches, heavy rainfall and strong winds are anticipated for the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, impacting these areas as Erin passes by.
Back in Central Texas, the influx of tropical moisture is expected to lead to scattered showers along the Interstate 35 corridor, particularly between San Antonio and Austin, on Saturday.
While not every area will see rain, those who do may face sudden heavy downpours, potentially amounting to a half-inch.
Isolated storms could result in even greater totals, with some locations receiving up to 2 inches of rain.
The National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center has issued a level 1 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall across the Coastal Plains, the I-35 corridor, and adjacent areas of the Hill Country, indicating at least a 5% chance of flash flooding.
However, it’s worth noting that some regions in the Hill Country may completely miss out on the rainfall.
With the onset of clouds and rainfall, temperatures in the area are expected to be cooler on Saturday, although highs will still reach the mid-90s.
On Sunday, the weather is predicted to dry up, and temperatures could climb back up to the 100-degree mark, with the heat index values potentially feeling like 102 to 105 degrees due to humidity.
As the workweek begins, conditions may remain similar, driven by high atmospheric pressure moving in from the north.
This pattern may lead to another day of triple-digit temperatures.
However, as the high pressure shifts westward by Tuesday, it is anticipated to amplify over the Four Corners region in the southwest United States.
This shift is expected to open the door for various atmospheric disturbances to move into Central Texas, increasing the chances for rain daily through the end of the upcoming week.
For those venturing to the coast this weekend for a final beach day before the school season kicks off in Austin, it is essential to be aware of the rip current risks associated with the tropical disturbance.
These rip currents, which are powerful flows of water moving away from the shore, can pose significant dangers, sweeping even the most competent swimmers far from the beach.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, rip currents commonly occur at beaches with breaking waves and act as “rivers of the sea,” transporting sand, marine life, and other materials away from the shore.
If caught in a rip current, the U.S. Lifesaving Association recommends staying calm and not trying to swim directly against the current.
Instead, swimmers should aim to swim parallel to the shoreline or toward breaking waves, and then make their way at an angle back to the beach.
In the event one cannot reach the shore, drawing attention by yelling for help and waving arms is crucial for safety.
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