Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has relied heavily on the United States’ unwavering support during the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
Though the Biden administration has occasionally expressed discomfort regarding the humanitarian crises in Gaza, the position of President Donald Trump’s administration was markedly different; it suggested extreme measures, including potential ethnic cleansing of Gaza’s population.
U.S. backing has proven to be instrumental for Israel, providing critical military aid and shielding it from international condemnation.
Rights groups have increasingly called out the potential complicity of the U.S. in what many are recognizing as acts of genocide, urging the end of American support for Israel.
### The International Response
What if the United States ceased its support for Israel overnight?
Israeli political scientist Ori Goldberg believes that many Western nations, which had historically supported Israel, would quickly shift their stance.
He notes, “I get the sense that many of the Western states that originally supported Israel are now feeling particularly helpless and are really just willing Israel’s downfall upon it.
For many, even Germany, the post-war bond that has tied them to Israel has become so frayed it probably won’t hold without the U.S.
In such a scenario, Goldberg predicts that these countries would likely move against Israel quickly, potentially enacting sanctions or invoking UN intervention.
### The Regional Dynamics
HA Hellyer, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, adds that removing U.S. support would dismantle the most significant barrier to a regional settlement.
He argues, “Israel’s imperative for genuinely integrating itself into the region will always be a second- or third-level priority because American support underwrites its ability to act with impunity.
Many experts, including Hellyer, believe that the long-held notion of imminent attacks on Israel by neighboring countries is overstated.
He states, “The Syrian army isn’t currently holding off from counter-attacking Israel because of the U.S. They’re holding off from attacking because they’re not interested in more wars.
### Economic Consequences
Goldberg also comments on the potential financial fallout, noting that while Israel is significantly reliant on U.S. financial support, it wouldn’t collapse entirely.
He explains that Israel’s economy has increasingly depended on its high-tech weapons sector, which is sustained by American aid and extensive R&D support.
Nevertheless, the immediate loss of U.S. backing would still create challenges, leading to significant layoffs in the tech industry and impacting military capacities.
### Political Ramifications in Israel
In terms of Israeli internal politics, Goldberg suggests that immediate political upheaval is unlikely.
The settler community is already deeply committed to their agenda, and Netanyahu, representing broader societal sentiments, would likely remain in power.
Noting how U.S. support has historically provided legitimacy to Israel’s right, Daniel Levy acknowledges that without it, Israeli politicians might find their actions more scrutinized.
He states that the absence of American backing would alter the internal political landscape, as there would be more accountability in how Israel conducts itself, particularly concerning its treatment of Palestinians.
### Military Considerations
Hamze Attar, a defense analyst, assesses how Israel’s military might respond to the loss of U.S. support.
He opines that while Israel could sustain military operations in Gaza for around a year without American aid, its long-term vulnerabilities would increase.
The U.S. provides critical defense systems, such as the Iron Dome, essential for Israel’s national security; without this support, Israel might face increased threats from its adversaries.
Attar elaborates that commercial satellites, integral to Israel’s territorial defense, would no longer be obscured, paving the way for increased reconnaissance by rival forces.
He warns that Israel would need to seek military support from other nations, which may not have the capacity to provide at the scale Israel currently enjoys, further exacerbating its vulnerabilities.
### The Situation in Gaza and the West Bank
The potential consequences for Gaza and the occupied West Bank are equally significant.
Goldberg suggests that Israeli military leaders would likely call for an immediate end to hostilities as soon as they recognized the implications of losing American backing.
Levy concurs, indicating that the financial and military resources required to sustain operations would become unsustainable quickly.
He posits that both the Israeli central bank and military would soon realize the grave limitations on their capabilities, leading to a halt in the conflict.
In conclusion, while the immediate impact of ending U.S. support for Israel would be profound, the long-term consequences could reshape both regional dynamics and Israeli policies profoundly.
As Israel confronts its international standing and local realities, the decisions made in Washington will undoubtedly continue to reverberate through Gaza, Israel, and the broader Middle East.
image source from：aljazeera
