In the face of mounting political pressure, there is a growing expectation that President Donald Trump may deploy the National Guard to New York City within the next three years.
Having already made headlines by sending troops to Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., the president appears to delight in such spectacles.
For Trump, this strategy serves to energize his base while inciting outrage among Democrats, particularly in major urban areas.
Recently, Representative James Comer, a Republican from Kentucky, voiced his support for extending this practice to other cities if it proves effective in Washington, D.C.
Comer stated, “We need to focus on the big cities in America now, and that’s what the president is doing.”
New York City stands out as a symbolic target for the right, particularly for Trump, who is a native of the city and fixates on its local politics.
With the potential rise of Zohran Mamdani as the city’s next mayor, Trump perceives an opportunity to characterize Mamdani—a socialist and African-born Muslim—as a key adversary.
This political dynamic allows Trump to frame his actions as being in defense against what he sees as a leftist threat.
Deploying the National Guard has provided Trump with an avenue to distract from other pressing matters, such as allegations concerning Jeffrey Epstein, ensuring that his supporters remain enthusiastic.
However, the political ramifications of sending troops into cities have proven more complicated than Trump might anticipate.
Karen Bass, the mayor of Los Angeles, faced significant challenges to her leadership earlier in the year, particularly following her response to devastating wildfires.
Amidst rising calls for her recall, Trump chose to intervene by sending federal troops to assist local law enforcement during protests against ICE.
In a decisive moment, Bass confronted the federal agents at MacArthur Park, a hotspot in a densely populated immigrant area.
This public stand against federal intervention effectively bolstered her image, transforming her into a symbol of anti-Trump sentiment in California.
The recall effort against Bass lost momentum, and she appears to be on track for re-election, demonstrating how direct confrontation with Trump can benefit local leaders.
Meanwhile, California’s legal battle against the federal deployment revealed an ongoing struggle over the appropriateness of utilizing military presence for domestic law enforcement, although courts have so far allowed the mobilization to continue.
For Mamdani, the prospect of a National Guard deployment poses numerous challenges.
Given his opposition to Trump, an incursion could inadvertently solidify his role as a leading figure in the local resistance against federal overreach.
In 2020, former Mayor Bill de Blasio managed to fend off similar federal efforts during the nationwide protests spurred by George Floyd’s death.
Moreover, crime rates have shown a decline throughout New York City since those protests, further complicating Trump’s argument for military intervention.
If Trump insists on deploying troops, he may need to construct a narrative around an impending crisis, which could backfire against his political objectives.
In such a scenario, Mamdani could leverage the situation to unite city Democrats around his leadership.
A direct confrontation with federal troops would likely provide Mamdani a pivotal opportunity to establish his leadership credentials, mirroring Bass’s effective stance in Los Angeles.
Having a signature moment by meeting the National Guard could galvanize city support, reinforcing his image while positioning him against Trump’s actions.
While Los Angeles may have seen a reduction in military presence, the situation in Washington D.C. remains unique, as Congress effectively governs the city.
President Trump has asserted control over local law enforcement there, a move he cannot seemingly replicate in New York or Los Angeles.
For Mamdani, establishing a cooperative relationship with the NYPD could be vital; opposing Trump’s military presence would also implicate the police’s role in managing crime.
The narrative that local law enforcement needs federal troops undermines the NYPD and could provoke resentment among officers.
As tensions rise, business elites in New York may be wary of federal troops patrolling the streets, preferring to maintain a semblance of local control.
In this political minefield, Trump must navigate carefully if he hopes to maintain support without inadvertently empowering his opponents.
While he may envision a scenario where he can project strength through military presence, history has shown that such tactics can also bolster the careers of the very Democrats he seeks to undermine.
Consequently, Trump has inadvertently fueled the political fortunes of leaders like Bass, who now stands as a formidable figure against him.
As the approaching election cycle looms, the intertwining fates of Mamdani and the National Guard’s potential incursion into New York City will undoubtedly shape the upcoming political landscape.
image source from：nymag
