SAO PAULO (AP) — President Donald Trump’s recent announcement to potentially boost import tariffs by 50% on Brazilian goods has raised concerns about soaring breakfast costs in the United States.
Key staples such as coffee and orange juice could see significant price increases if an agreement is not reached by the looming deadline of August 1.
In addition to breakfast essentials, other products including Brazilian beef and regional airliners are also on the line, as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil vowed to retaliate against Trump’s tariffs.
Trump’s decision comes in a political context, as it explicitly targets the Brazilian Supreme Court trial of former president Jair Bolsonaro, an ally of Trump facing charges related to his efforts to overturn his 2022 election loss.
The U.S. Census Bureau highlighted a $6.8 billion trade surplus for the United States with Brazil last year, indicating a strong economic relationship.
Criticism has poured in from Brazilian exporters, supportive politicians, and industry associations—particularly from the coffee, beef, and orange juice sectors—urging President Lula to negotiate.
In an official statement, Brazil’s agribusiness caucus stressed, “These new tariffs produce direct effects and hit Brazil’s agribusiness, impacting the exchange rate and the competitiveness of Brazilian exports.”
Lula emphasized that the U.S. has enjoyed a trade surplus with Brazil exceeding $410 billion over the past 15 years, with coffee and orange juice among the few Brazilian products highly demanded by American consumers.
The U.S. coffee market heavily relies on imports, primarily from Brazil, which accounts for about 30% of the American coffee supply.
According to official government data, Colombia provides roughly 20%, while Vietnam contributes about 10%.
Current global coffee stocks are at low levels due to climate-related issues that have put pressure on coffee prices, making the proposed tariffs even more concerning for consumers.
Marcos Matos, the executive director of Cecafé—Brazil’s coffee exporters council—noted that the initial 10% tariff enacted by Trump in April was manageable compared to the higher rates faced by competitors like Vietnam.
However, the proposed hike to 50% represents a significant escalation.
Matos expressed, “It will harm us, coffee exporters, in terms of jobs, income, and costs. And it will hurt the American industry and the end consumer, who will end up paying more.”
He added that Brazilian agriculture minister Carlos Fávaro is seeking alternatives for coffee exporters while navigating negotiations with the U.S.
Ibiapaba Netto, a director at the Brazilian association of citrus juice exporters, commented that both Brazil and the U.S. would suffer from the tariffs.
Brazil is the primary source of orange juice for the U.S., exporting approximately 3 billion liters annually, while 60% of U.S. orange juice imports come from Brazil.
Netto remarked, “The American market is a traditional partner, and we always complement each other. These additional tariffs on Brazil do not strengthen orange juice from Florida; they weaken the entire juice industry and raise costs for everyone’s breakfast in the U.S.”
Both Matos and Netto encouraged President Lula to keep diplomatic channels open until the very end of any negotiations before activating Brazil’s reciprocity law.
Initially, there was hope that Brazil could benefit from the tariffs as it avoided the harsh penalties that impacted Canada, Mexico, and China.
However, after the announcement of the 50% tariff increase, Brazil finds itself in a less advantageous position.
Marcos Jank, a professor of global agribusiness at Insper, noted, “With this 50% tariff hike, we now face one of the highest tariffs the U.S. is applying. We moved into a losing position.”
Embraer, a prominent Brazilian airline manufacturer, is also assessing the impact of these potential tariffs.
The company stated it is evaluating how the new measures might specifically affect the Brazilian aviation industry.
Investment analysts estimate that around 60% of Embraer’s revenue is tied to the U.S. market.
The company affirmed, “Any material impacts will be addressed during our second-quarter earnings conference call, scheduled for August 5.”
Simultaneously, Embraer has been actively engaging with relevant authorities to restore the previous zero import tax for the aeronautical sector.
Brazil’s beef industry is facing challenges as well in light of Trump’s announcement.
Roberto Perosa, president of the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries, is in ongoing discussions with U.S. partners regarding negotiations with the Trump administration.
Perosa emphasized that Brazil’s beef industry is not a direct competitor to the U.S. market, stating that Brazilian exports have provided substantial supply during recent livestock shortages, ultimately benefiting American consumers.
“We don’t want to keep being the target of political disputes that harm the Brazilian productive sector,” he stated.
Perosa further mentioned, “The limits of political action cannot come at the expense of our country’s population, or the American population, which will pay the price through higher beef prices.”
While many view Trump’s tariff actions as politically motivated, Brazil is working hard to establish commercial arguments to break the existing ideological standoff.
Luiz Rua, secretary of trade and international relations at Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture, hinted at the potential for tariffs negotiations, noting U.S. interest in accessing Brazil’s ethanol market.
In return, Brazil is advocating for improved access to the U.S. sugar market.
“That’s part of our agricultural negotiations,” Rua remarked.
He continued, “There are other discussions beyond my portfolio that involve industrial matters. All of this is being put on the table.”
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