Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, expressed certainty about a potential reduction of U.S. military presence in Europe.
Current estimates indicate that the number of U.S. forces in Europe varies between 70,000 to 90,000 troops.
This marks a significant decline from the 1950s during the Cold War, when over 400,000 U.S. troops were stationed across the continent.
Various analysts and military experts warn that withdrawing or even reducing American troop numbers could undermine deterrence against Russia.
A recent report from the Economic Institute of Germany (IW Cologne) highlighted that it could take Europe up to a dozen years to replace critical U.S. military capabilities.
U.S. European Command chief Gen. Christopher Cavoli, who also serves as NATO’s supreme allied commander in Europe, strongly advised maintaining current troop levels.
Cavoli emphasized the need for a robust ground presence to counter Russia’s advantage of proximity in troop deployment, indicating that cutting U.S. forces would slow responses to potential Russian aggression.
As Cavoli prepares to retire this summer, discussions have emerged in Washington regarding the future of NATO command, which may see a European take the helm for the first time since NATO’s inception in 1949.
While some European nations are gearing up for a possible U.S. withdrawal, not all are aligned in their response.
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Germany hosts the largest contingent of U.S. troops, with over 38,000 stationed there, alongside 14,000 in Poland, 12,000 in Italy, and 10,000 in the U.K.
Reports from NBC News recently suggested the Pentagon is considering a drawdown of up to 10,000 troops from Central Europe, focusing on Poland and Romania, although both countries refuted these claims.
European leaders seek clarity from the U.S. regarding troop levels.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius called for a clear roadmap from Washington regarding potential reductions, a sentiment echoed by Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen.
So far, the Pentagon has yet to respond to these requests.
Hodges noted that U.S. obligations under NATO regional defense plans, established during the recent Vilnius summit in 2023, would necessitate coordination with allies should troop withdrawals occur.
Some European governments remain hopeful for a return to a stronger alliance with the U.S. in light of future elections.
They fear that preemptively planning for a U.S. pullout could transform hope into reality, effectively becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Latvia’s Defense Minister Andris Sprūds remarked at a recent Paris conference, paraphrasing former German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck, that one should not act out of fear of losing something vital.
Historically, U.S. administrations have contemplated reducing their military footprint in Europe to prioritize Asia.
During Barack Obama’s presidency, efforts were initially made in this direction, but the U.S. increased its troop presence again after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Ben Harris, a research associate at the Council on Foreign Relations, warned that Poland and the Baltic states would bear the brunt of U.S. troop reductions, weakening overall European security.
He added that troop withdrawals would likely begin with those deployed since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 as part of NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence program.
U.S. military personnel in Europe operate under varying arrangements.
Permanently assigned forces are stationed long-term, often with families, primarily in Germany, Italy, and the U.K.
Long-term rotational forces, which fall under separate funding and include NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence and Operation Atlantic Resolve, lead the multinational battlegroup in Poland.
Additionally, National Guard State Partnership Programs are conducted under bilateral agreements with various European states.
Harris explained that a reduction in troop numbers does not require congressional approval.
Nonetheless, such a withdrawal raises significant logistical questions, impacting military equipment transport, including essential assets like tanks, helicopters, ships, and nuclear weapons.
The importance of Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defense systems in Romania and Poland cannot be understated as they play a crucial role in safeguarding Europe against aerial threats.
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