The chaotic US military withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 has transformed into a significant issue in the 2024 presidential election, continuing to reverberate through American politics today.
Former President Donald Trump, who initiated the withdrawal during his term, has criticized President Joe Biden’s administration for leaving behind extensive military equipment and, more critically, tens of thousands of Afghans and their families who risk persecution for assisting US forces against the Taliban.
American authorities responsible for facilitating support for these Afghan allies have faced mounting criticism for their slow response.
Despite attempts by Congress to pass legislation that would create a pathway for permanent residency for Afghan refugees resettled in the United States, such proposals have frequently stalled.
At the beginning of 2025, around 110,000 Afghans remained in Afghanistan, while 90,000 others were stuck in third countries, a situation that has persisted for many who already completed rigorous vetting processes for resettlement.
A significant shift occurred when Trump, upon taking office in January 2025, revoked the Afghan resettlement program through an executive order, leaving many eligible Afghans in a precarious legal situation.
Approximately 180,000 Afghans were admitted to the US following the military’s withdrawal; some received special immigration visas (SIVs) that ensured a pathway to permanent residency, while others were granted humanitarian parole and temporary protected status (TPS).
However, on April 11, the US Department of Homeland Security announced its decision to terminate TPS for over 9,000 Afghans, asserting that Afghanistan no longer met the requirements for such status.
This announcement left those targeted with the challenging decision to self-deport before the deadline of May 20.
Officials from the Trump administration claim that some Afghans and refugees exploit the TPS program, which is intended as a short-term solution for those fleeing conflicts and disasters, to remain in the US perpetually.
They assert that conditions in Afghanistan have improved enough to allow safe returns for these individuals, despite advocates arguing that many still face substantial threats of retaliation for their prior assistance to US forces.
Reports from individuals affiliated with the previous US-backed government in Afghanistan indicate that the Taliban continues to label those who collaborated with the Americans as collaborators.
Although the regime’s enforcement can vary dramatically, many Afghans—including interpreters and aides who supported US military efforts—remain in hiding out of fear of persecution.
Additionally, for Afghan women and girls, the situation is dire concerning education, employment, and travel restrictions, and the UN has characterized the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan as severe, with half the population in urgent need of assistance.
From the perspective of the Trump administration, the deportation of Afghans is framed as a national security necessity.
Reports from the Inspector General of the Department of Homeland Security indicate that more than 79,000 Afghan evacuees were admitted to the US between July 2021 and January 2022 through programs such as Operation Allies Refuge (OAR) and Operation Allies Welcome (OAW).
Concerns about the vetting process for Afghan evacuees were raised during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing involving Joe Kent, the Trump-nominated candidate for leading the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC).
Kent alleged that the Biden administration admitted thousands of Afghans without sufficient screening.
He noted that the NCTC had identified over 1,400 individuals with potential ties to Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) and other terrorist organizations.
Meanwhile, Trump’s national security team has sought to establish a connection between illegal immigration and domestic terrorism.
National Security Advisor Michael Waltz claimed that groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda have infiltrated the United States, suggesting a need for stricter border security and the expulsion of individuals whose statuses could be questionable.
His assertions arose after a terrorist incident in New Orleans allegedly linked to a US-born veteran influenced by ISIS.
The US intelligence community’s 2025 Annual Threat Assessment identified ISKP as a notable terrorist threat, warning of its capacity to orchestrate attacks well beyond Afghanistan’s borders.
The report referenced an Afghan national in the US who was arrested for planning a terrorist attack, although details regarding his refugee status were not included.
In a visit to Greenland in March, Vice President JD Vance condemned the Taliban, calling it “one of the worst terrorist organizations in the world.”
Vance also criticized the Biden administration for the loss of billions of dollars worth of US military equipment during Afghanistan’s withdrawal, suggesting this continues to bolster terrorist groups like ISKP.
Intriguingly, while the Trump administration actively criticizes the Taliban, it has not formally designated the Taliban regime as a terrorist group.
The Trump administration’s move to deport Afghans may be indicative of recent limited interactions with the Taliban, such as negotiations over several US hostages.
Similar to the Biden administration’s approach, the Trump administration has engaged with the Taliban regarding intelligence operations against various terrorist groups based in Afghanistan.
Recent comments from Trump officials suggest that the Taliban should recover and return the military equipment left behind during the US withdrawal.
This dynamic raises the possibility that cooperation with the Taliban may be essential for facilitating the repatriation of Afghan refugees, potentially leading the Taliban to seek political recognition or economic aid from the US in exchange for compliance.
The current US refugee policy could also align with recent developments in Pakistan, where the notion of Afghan refugees’ status being temporary is being reinforced.
In a security-driven rationale, Pakistan has ended temporary protections and compelled the departure of approximately 900,000 undocumented Afghans since November 2023.
Among these, over 80,000 Afghans have been forcibly evacuated since April 1, many having lived in Pakistan for decades.
The Taliban has publicly criticized Pakistan’s policies regarding Afghan refugees, not for the act of expulsion, but for their perceived rapid execution.
Whatever the underlying motivations for the deportation of previously protected Afghan refugees, the implications are severe for those who have already endured significant suffering over the last four decades.
Returning to an Afghanistan that is poorly equipped to accommodate them and suspicious of their motives represents a dire predicament for these individuals.
For many, this situation forebodes enhanced repression and hardship.
In the end, the United States risks once again breaking faith with the Afghan people.
Marvin G. Weinbaum, a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute, emphasizes the profound implications of these policy changes on Afghan lives.
Naade Ali, serving as a Research Assistant to Weinbaum, shares insights from extensive experience in political research and human rights advocacy, further underscoring the precarious realities faced by Afghan refugees.
image source from：https://www.mei.edu/publications/thousands-once-protected-afghan-refugees-united-states-face-deportation
