Amid the bustling atmosphere of a Haight-Ashbury bar filled with middle-aged patrons clad in San Francisco 49ers jerseys and stylish bags, a noticeable absence looms: the city’s youth.
Many young people are taking their talents and ambitions elsewhere, primarily to New York City, in search of vibrancy and new opportunities.
The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated a significant shift in the San Francisco Bay Area as individuals and families migrated to more affordable and quieter locales like Las Vegas, Houston, Miami, and Phoenix.
With the mass departure, retail spaces in the area were left vacant, rental rates and home prices either stabilized or declined, and the once-crowded streets became a little less congested.
This exodus predominantly involved mid-career couples and families seeking suburban tranquility, but now younger individuals, including college students and early-career professionals, are part of the migration.
Between April 2020 and June 2022, U.S. Census data indicated a striking 21 percent reduction in the population of San Franciscans aged 25 to 29, translating to a loss of 20,000 people—the steepest decline among all age groups.
During this two-year span, approximately 130,000 residents exited San Francisco, and of those, around 3,350 moved to Manhattan, the most popular destination.
Shelby Liles, who grew up in Potrero Hill, represents the new wave of transplants.
After a year abroad in Florence, Italy, she landed in New York City nearly two years ago to attend New York University, where she studies politics and sociology.
Reflecting on her experiences, Liles noted a marked shift in her perception of Manhattan from her childhood visits: “At first, we didn’t like it. It was cold and overwhelming for how little we were.”
However, as she grew older, the charm of Manhattan became irresistible.
The allure of diverse restaurants, music, theater, and vibrant neighborhoods led her to choose NYC over Berkeley, despite its proximity to home.
“I felt like I would get a lot more personal growth and a better experience in New York rather than being close to home,” Liles stated, revealing her intention to remain in the city post-graduation for work or further education.
According to an analysis by Smart Asset, California has seen the largest exodus of high-income Millennials and Gen Zers, with a net loss of 9,181 households during 2021 and 2022 on tax return data.
While the state attracted 14,139 Millennials, it experienced a net loss of 23,320, illustrating a troubling trend for the Golden State.
As reported by the San Francisco Chronicle, an increased outflow of Millennials and Gen-Zers, particularly from the tech industry, has been observed.
Many have cited better career prospects and an enhanced dating scene as motivating factors for relocating.
Nick Dolce, a 24-year-old consultant, is a case in point.
After growing up in San Francisco and attending Berkeley, he is preparing to make the leap to New York this month, seeking a change and the energy of the city.
“A majority of my friends from growing up are living in New York. I’d say about 80 percent,” Dolce shared, emphasizing a mass migration of his peers pursuing opportunities in the East.
Jasper Liles, Shelby’s brother, also made the trek to New York City after visiting his sister.
Describing the city as a dynamic epicenter of cultures, Liles appreciates the abundant opportunities it offers young professionals early in their careers.
Though he acknowledges that both cities face high living costs, he believes NYC provides a greater variety of job prospects.
He remarked, “When I moved it was still in the last wave of inflation; buying groceries was certainly as difficult [in San Francisco] as it was [in New York].”
Dolce added, “I feel that it’s a very artistic city, whether it’s music or visual arts, plays and theater. I always feel like there’s more going on there when I go to visit; more than what I find in San Francisco.”
Nuri Amari, 25, offers another perspective on the migration trend.
Originally from Canada, Amari relocated to the Mission District in 2022 for a job at Meta but recently transferred to its New York office.
While he appreciated San Francisco’s natural beauty and outdoor activities, he found it lacked the excitement he craved.
“SF can be a bit sleepy sometimes, things close a little earlier,” he remarked, indicating a preference for the lively atmosphere of NYC.
Now residing in the Financial District, he revels in the city’s vibrant restaurant scene and seeks to immerse himself fully in New York life.
Amari mentioned that although living in Manhattan can be expensive, he is committed to experiencing all the city has to offer for at least a year before deciding on his next steps.
Similar sentiment echoes from Ryan Findling, 24, who has journeyed from Michigan to San Francisco and recently settled in Boston.
Findling’s decision was primarily influenced by the need for more structure and social interaction in his work life, as he navigated remote work on East Coast hours.
In Boston, he discovered a more natural fit, surrounded by friends from his college days at Wellesley, finding the social scene to be vibrant and enjoyable.
He expressed a wish to settle there for a few more years, sharing, “The social scene is great. East Coast people are very different from West Coast people.”
While many young professionals are leaving San Francisco, the city is also witnessing an influx of ambitious high school and college dropouts aiming to establish tech startups.
Incubators like Y Combinator are reportedly attracting youthful participants, some not even of legal drinking age, to help launch Artificial Intelligence companies.
According to Apartments.com, the rental landscape contrasts sharply with the national average of $1,555 for a one-bedroom apartment, with New York City rates peaking between $3,888 and $4,990 and San Francisco rates from $2,980 to $4,000.
Despite this, Nick Dolce speaks fondly of his present living arrangement in North Beach, feeling fortunate to have found an appealing space.
Reflecting on his college experience, Shelby Liles recalled the struggle to find decent housing and the high costs of living when she moved into a cramped dorm.
She has since upgraded to a spacious three-bedroom in the East Village, living with friends from her first-year cohort.
“Once I got it in my head that I liked New York, then I never really questioned it,” Liles said with palpable enthusiasm.
She loves the endless activities and opportunities to explore, stating, “There are so many things happening. I love just walking around; going to explore different things.”
In conclusion, the mass movement of young people from San Francisco to New York City and elsewhere highlights a shifting landscape for urban living, as they seek new opportunities, experiences, and a livelier atmosphere that they feel their hometown lacks.
As economic dynamics continue to evolve, the broader implications for both San Francisco and its competitors like New York remain significant, ushering in new challenges and possibilities for these vibrant metropolises.
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