Cameroon is poised for a critical presidential election scheduled for October 2025, a moment that could either catalyze a democratic shift or further entrench a long-standing cycle of disputed and unfair elections.
As it stands, the outcome of this election holds enormous potential consequences, not just for the governance of Cameroon but for its societal stability and economic prospects as well.
President Paul Biya has been in power since 1982, making him one of Africa’s longest-serving leaders.
Now at ninety-two years old, Biya has faced persistent allegations of electoral fraud and repression throughout his decades in office. The troubling history of elections began during the country’s first multiparty elections in 1992, where Biya was accused of rigging the process.
The repercussions were severe, with opposition leader John Fru Ndi subjected to house arrest amid protests.
Fast forward to the 2018 election, where Biya was proclaimed winner with 71 percent of the votes, yet irregularities marred the process, especially low voter turnout in the Anglophone regions, which saw barely 10 percent participation due to ongoing conflicts.
Public protests ensued, leading to mass arrests of opposition supporters.
Despite concerns regarding his age and well-being, Biya is expected to run again, positioning himself as a bastion of stability, even as public sentiment for change intensifies.
Catholic bishops have publicly called for Biya to retire, and even a government-affiliated newspaper suggested it may be time for new leadership.
The ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) and its allies are actively working to maintain their power, rallying various smaller parties around Biya once again, as seen in past electoral campaigns.
Behind the scenes, discussions about succession preparations are intense, with numerous figures proposed as potential successors, igniting fears of a dynastic transition, particularly concerning Biya’s son, Franck.
The uncertain path regarding succession presents a significant risk, raising concerns of factional discord if a transparent transition isn’t managed.
On the opposition front, the upcoming 2025 election is viewed as a rare opportunity to overthrow decades of one-person rule.
Over thirty opposition parties have united under the banner of Maurice Kamto, a former minister who has claimed victory in the 2018 election.
Kamto’s platform focuses on anti-corruption and reform, resonating strongly with the populace’s growing desire for change, yet the regime has taken measures to undermine his candidacy.
In an alarming move, authorities in early 2024 declared two opposition coalitions illegal, driving Kamto’s alliance underground, while increasingly complicated legal barriers against candidacy discourage opposition participation.
Doubts about the electoral process’s integrity are compounded by the CPDM-led government postponing legislative elections to 2026, creating additional challenges for opposition parties to gain parliamentary representation ahead of the presidential elections.
The landscape becomes even more precarious with ongoing harassment directed at dissenters.
Activists and journalists face arbitrary detention, peaceful demonstrations are suppressed, and media outlets that criticize the regime find themselves silenced, casting further doubt on the possibility of free elections in 2025.
Nonetheless, there remain pockets of resistance and hope within Cameroon.
Youth activists and civil society groups have increasingly mobilized, leading significant voter registration initiatives in 2024, demonstrating a grassroots desire for transformation.
The stakes of the election extend far beyond mere leadership; they encompass broader concerns regarding Cameroon’s socio-political stability and economic health.
A flawed electoral process could exacerbate existing tensions and discontent, especially in light of the ongoing Anglophone Crisis that has already claimed thousands of lives and displaced hundreds of thousands.
Separatist groups in the Anglophone regions have historically rejected elections and have resorted to violent measures to enforce boycotts, creating potential disenfranchisement for voters in these areas.
Additionally, rising frustrations among the young population, who are increasingly disillusioned with rampant corruption and the lack of opportunities, heighten the risk of social unrest amid a contested or heavily manipulated electoral outcome.
Ethno-regional tensions could also emerge if feelings of exclusion are ignited by a perceived power grab.
Conversely, a credible election followed by a peaceful transfer of power holds the promise of revitalizing governance.
Such an outcome would empower a new government to address pressing issues, such as finding a political resolution to the ongoing Anglophone conflict and tackling the Boko Haram insurgency in the Far North region.
Cameroon possesses abundant natural resources, including oil, timber, and arable land, yet mismanagement and corruption have constrained its economic potential, leaving over half of the population living in poverty.
Continuing on the current path could result in intensified economic decline and a growing sense of alienation among the populace.
In stark contrast, a fresh commitment to reform from a new administration could pave the way for increased investments and better resource management, sparking economic growth.
International observers are closely monitoring the situation, recognizing that Cameroon’s future trajectory will have wider implications for Central African stability.
France, having historically supported Biya, appears to be treading carefully, avoiding overt endorsements.
Both the United States and the European Union frequently advocate for fair elections and human rights, with the U.S. previously reducing military aid due to human rights abuses in the Anglophone regions.
However, ongoing security cooperation interests complicate the West’s leverage.
In addition, external players are attempting to influence the situation, as Russian-linked media narratives promote anti-Western sentiments that benefit Biya’s regime.
Furthermore, regional governments, most led by long-serving leaders, seem to favor Biya’s continued presidency, prioritizing stability over transformational change.
Ultimately, the future of Cameroon hinges on its own decisions and actions.
A genuinely free and fair election could enhance the nation’s standing on the international stage and unlock new avenues of support, while a subsequent rigged vote risks isolating the regime and igniting internal conflict.
The outcome of Cameroon’s presidential election will be indicative of a broader struggle within Africa, highlighting whether nations will uphold democratic standards or regress into authoritarianism.
Several prescribed actions could significantly bolster democracy in Cameroon leading up to this pivotal election.
Firstly, the United States should leverage diplomacy to urge Cameroonian leaders to commit to free and fair elections.
This could encompass public and private dialogues aimed at ensuring the participation of opposition candidates, allowing for independent election observers, and preventing violence from security forces.
Coordinating these efforts with allies such as France, the EU, and the African Union could amplify the impact.
Secondly, Washington must consider its aid and security ties to Cameroon critically.
Linking U.S. assistance to the regime’s conduct in the elections and respect for human rights can serve as a powerful motivator for positive change.
Conversely, a blatantly fraudulent election process should trigger consequences such as visa bans and aid cuts, striking a delicate balance between holding the regime accountable and maintaining necessary counterterrorism collaboration.
Furthermore, supporting election monitoring and civil engagement can play a crucial role in ensuring the integrity of the electoral process.
The U.S. could provide assistance for both international and local observers, promote voter education initiatives, and support grassroots movements focused on parallel vote tabulation.
These efforts could help boost public confidence in the elections and empower citizens to advocate for their rights peacefully.
Lastly, Washington should prepare for potential scenarios following the elections.
In cases of disputed outcomes or the potential for violence, the U.S. could offer mediation and dialogue facilitation, cooperating with African partners and the United Nations to de-escalate tensions.
Regardless of the election results, it is vital for the United States to encourage the winning candidate to implement inclusive reforms, such as addressing the Anglophone Crisis through national dialogue and initiating measures to combat corruption effectively.
Targeted U.S. support—encompassing diplomatic engagement, technical aid, and peacebuilding programs—can be leveraged to facilitate these initiatives, reinforcing the notion that long-term U.S.-Cameroon partnership will strengthen if the country advances towards stability, inclusivity, and robust governance.
In summary, Cameroon’s 2025 presidential election represents a crucial juncture for both the nation and the African continent, catalyzing potential transformations or reinforcing entrenched power dynamics — all underscored by the international community’s role in shaping the outcome.
image source from：https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/africasource/how-the-united-states-can-support-cameroon-as-it-faces-its-next-democratic-test/
