A recent countywide point-in-time count has shown a decline in the number of people living in tents or cars across San Diego, yet El Cajon stands out with a significant rise in its unsheltered homeless population.
Managing to drop homelessness rates in several areas, including multiple cities in South County and several municipalities to the north, El Cajon reported an increase from 283 individuals last year to over 340 in January.
Local leaders have expressed their frustration over these numbers, with El Cajon Councilmember Steve Goble stating at a public hearing that the city’s situation contrasts starkly with other jurisdictions experiencing declines in homelessness.
Julie Hayden, CEO of the East County Transitional Living Center, which serves as a main shelter in the area, acknowledged that while homelessness remains a severe issue, she had not observed a noticeable increase in individuals living outside. “I don’t see any drastic up or down,” she remarked in an interview.
City officials of El Cajon have put forth various theories to explain the spike in their unsheltered homeless population. City Manager Graham Mitchell pointed out in an email to the Regional Task Force on Homelessness that some areas included in the El Cajon tally might fall outside its municipal boundaries. Mitchell estimated that about 38 individuals counted may reside outside the city limits due to discrepancies between census tracts and city borders.
Acknowledging this point, Gary Warth, a spokesperson for the task force, confirmed that the census tracts used for the count frequently do not align with city boundaries. However, he noted that this has been a long-standing issue and has not exclusively affected El Cajon.
Nearby La Mesa, for example, maintained relatively stable numbers, reporting 53 unsheltered individuals last year versus 52 in January. Despite potential overlapping jurisdictions, La Mesa did not see the same drastic fluctuation as El Cajon.
Additionally, El Cajon leaders expressed concerns over the possibility of double counting, particularly highlighting the 70-plus people recorded along Second Street near Interstate 8. Mitchell, who participated in the count, stated that the figure seemed implausible given the lack of observed individuals during his count.
While the task force remains skeptical about double-counting, claiming that their teams utilize a mapping app to designate each person’s location, they are open to collaborating with El Cajon officials to reassess the data.
Despite its shortcomings, the annual census plays a critical role in monitoring homelessness in the area. It provides just a snapshot, capturing data on one day, and can be influenced by variables like adverse weather that may cause those living outdoors to seek temporary shelter, such as motels.
Still, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development mandates counties to conduct the count in order to qualify for federal funding aimed at aiding homelessness. This year, San Diego County recorded a drop in overall homelessness for the first time in years.
El Cajon’s rise in homelessness stands out particularly as its approach mirrors the practices of other cities experiencing reductions. While largely critiquing California’s Housing First policies that prioritize housing for individuals before addressing other needs, El Cajon’s leaders have also supported aggressive measures to clear encampments. Nevertheless, the city is home to several service organizations, including Home Start and The Salvation Army.
In clear contrast, Escondido in North County witnessed a decrease in its unsheltered homeless population, plummeting from over 400 to 307 individuals.
Rebecca Branstetter, coordinator for the East County Homeless Task Force, acknowledged the challenges ahead. “The takeaway for me is: We’ve got a lot of work to do,” she stated following recent discussions on homelessness.
During the City Council meeting, various council members proposed next steps, including a review of local aid organizations to assess their effectiveness. Some expressed willingness to invest over $1 million into increasing encampment sweeps.
The city manager committed to presenting specific action plans in subsequent meetings.
Moreover, city leaders are contemplating conducting their own counts of El Cajon’s homeless population every three months, enabling them to customize survey inquiries to gather more granular data on aspects such as how long individuals have been in El Cajon.
The outcomes from these efforts may not significantly diverge from the initial task force findings. For context, Chula Vista opted to undertake its own assessments, leading to the Homeless Outreach Team identifying 510 homeless individuals in September. Not long before this local count, the task force had reported 503.
With multiple factors at play, El Cajon’s growing homeless numbers highlight the complexities within regional efforts to combat homelessness and the need for ongoing review and intervention.
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