New Delhi, India – In a surprising twist of international dynamics, the relations between India and China appear to be on a path towards reconciliation after years of tension.
Five years ago, during President Donald Trump’s visit to India, the atmosphere was marked by celebration and a strengthening of US-India ties, while China condemned the burgeoning partnership.
Trump’s visit, highlighted by a massive rally in Ahmedabad titled “Namaste Trump!”, showcased the personal rapport between him and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as economic ties soared.
However, by June 2020, relations with China had deteriorated sharply following deadly clashes in the Galwan Valley, leading to significant shifts in India’s approach to its northern neighbor.
The aftermath of this deadly encounter, which left 20 Indian soldiers dead, prompted India to impose bans on over 200 Chinese applications including TikTok and ramp up defense cooperation with the United States and the Quad group, comprising the US, Japan, and Australia.
Fast forward to recent months, and India appears to have recalibrated its foreign policy in face of shifting geopolitical circumstances, with Prime Minister Modi now contemplating a more amiable relationship with China.
Wang Yi, China’s Foreign Minister, visited New Delhi recently for discussions with Indian officials including Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, marking a pivotal moment in bilateral relations.
During the meeting, Modi emphasized the importance of mutual respect and sensitivity towards each other’s interests, indicating a significant thaw in the previously frosty relationship.
Both countries expressed intentions to enhance cooperation, with announcements of confidence-building measures such as the resumption of direct flights and easier visa policies.
In June, China allowed Indian pilgrims to visit holy sites in Tibet, and both nations are reportedly exploring an “early harvest” settlement regarding aspects of their long-disputed border, a focal point of historical tensions, including their war in 1962.
Additionally, Modi has accepted an invitation from President Xi Jinping to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, anticipated to take place in Tianjin later this month, making it his first visit to China in over seven years.
Wang highlighted that past setbacks were not beneficial for the populations of both countries and acknowledged the need for stability in border relations following the Galwan Valley clashes, which had fatal consequences on both sides.
Xi Jinping’s recent assertion advocating for Sino-Indian ties in the form of a “Dragon-Elephant tango” illustrates the growing acknowledgment between the two nations.
Sana Hashmi, a fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation, noted that efforts to ease tensions between India and China have been developing over time, particularly since meetings between Modi and Xi resumed.
Notably, Modi and Xi had a pivotal meeting last October in Kazan, where longstanding animosities began to thaw.
However, the backdrop of U.S. tariffs, particularly those against Indian imports, has placed India in a position where it feels compelled to reduce adversaries, including China.
Political analysts indicate that President Trump’s imposition of a 50 percent tariff on Indian goods, along with favorable engagements with India’s traditional rival Pakistan, has prompted India to reconsider its geopolitical alignments.
Despite evidence that the U.S. is aiming to isolate China, it appears to be inadvertently isolating India as well, particularly with new tariffs impacting Indian imports while leaving China relatively unscathed.
Trump’s policies have triggered a significant realignment of relations within Asia, hastening improvements in India-China ties, according to Biswajit Dhar, a trade economist.
This evolving relationship is seen by many as not merely an improvement but a genuine shift that may hold long-term relevance.
Furthermore, experts observe that an amicable relationship between India and China could potentially buffer the negative impacts of U.S. tariffs for both nations, especially as Washington imposes barriers on vital Indian exports.
India’s trade deficit with China reached $99.2 billion in the previous fiscal year, largely fueled by soaring imports of electronic goods.
China, which stands as India’s largest trading partner after the U.S., has signaled intentions to enhance market access for Indian goods, offering hope to mitigate the impact of Trump’s tariffs and address India’s persistent trade imbalance.
The prospect of improved India-China relations is equally strategic for Beijing, seeking to reinforce its influence within the Asia-Pacific region amidst growing U.S. assertiveness.
The two countries are increasingly aware that their historically tense relationship has cost them strategically, with both acknowledging the broader implications of their new proximity.
China recognizes its past actions may have inadvertently pushed India closer to the U.S., while India is acutely aware that its deeper engagement with the U.S. has come at significant strategic costs.
As the landscape shifts, the warming of India-China relations could pave the way for new Asian-led trade blocs, reducing dependence on Washington.
Nonetheless, Hashmi highlights inherent limitations in how closely India and China can collaborate due to India’s strategy of diversifying its supply chains away from over-dependence on any singular source.
Moreover, Hashmi warns that while a thaw may allow for normalization of bilateral ties, lasting transformation may remain elusive as competition and conflict are likely to persist.
In the context of regional alliances, the Quad, which has traditionally framed India as a democratic counterweight to China, faces potential complications from a rapprochement between New Delhi and Beijing.
Since the onset of U.S. engagements in Asia, the Quad has been positioned as a linchpin in countering China’s rise, but the recent warming of India-China relations complicates this strategy.
India has historically prioritized a foreign policy of strategic autonomy, choosing not to align itself firmly with military alliances while engaging various countries on specific issues.
Despite this independence, U.S. administrations have generally operated under the assumption that strengthening ties with India could serve as a counter to Beijing, effectively sidelining longstanding relationships with other nations such as Russia.
However, Trump’s approach seems to challenge this alignment, posing expectations for India to take definitive stances.
Peter Navarro, White House Counsellor for Trade and Manufacturing, has remarked that if India wishes to be recognized as a strategic partner to the U.S., it must embody that commitment more explicitly.
In contrast, Indian officials have shown strong indications that New Delhi intends to maintain its strategic autonomy despite external pressures.
The implications of more amicable India-China relations may hinder U.S. attempts at isolating China within international forums, which could undermine the narratives promoting democratic alliances against Beijing.
A rapprochement might empower India to engage with China on issues like development financing, climate change, and multilateral reforms, which would diversify its global partnerships beyond the line drawn by the U.S.
Experts also note that a friendlier relationship may diminish India’s willingness to adopt overtly anti-China stances within the Quad, steering the coalition towards broader goals rather than serving merely as a counterbalance against China.
Regardless, the Quad is expected to retain its strategic importance, particularly on issues such as supply chain resilience, emerging technologies, and maritime security.
Hashmi pointed out that while the Trump administration initially bolstered the Quad, its current strategies seem to undermine the cohesiveness of the grouping.
Currently, the Asia Pacific appears to have taken a backseat in Trump’s foreign policy priorities, suggesting that even if the situation alters, the regional landscape in terms of cooperation may undergo substantial change.
Convincing India to align closely against China presents a unique challenge for Washington, especially against the backdrop of evolving India-China dynamics.
image source from：aljazeera
