As the Trump administration announces plans to send additional federal agents to Chicago and considers deploying the National Guard in an effort to curb violent crime, surprising data reveal that the city’s murder rate during the summer has reached a historic low.
According to an analysis by WBEZ, the total number of murders across June, July, and August this year amounted to 123, marking the fewest recorded for those months since 1965, when the Chicago Police Department documented 117 homicides.
This significant decrease is coupled with overall violent crime rates that have seen a reduction of more than two-thirds since their peak in 1991, as outlined in various annual reports from the Chicago Police Department (CPD).
Deondre Rutues, a business psychologist and newly elected member of the Police District Council in the Austin neighborhood, stated, “If the numbers show that crime is down and it’s trending downward, then there’s no need to bring the National Guard here.” He emphasized that the existing measures seem to be working effectively.
Mayor Brandon Johnson’s administration points to several key strategies contributing to the decline in violent crime. These include improved leadership within the police force under Superintendent Larry Snelling and enhanced community violence intervention efforts that leverage the experience of former offenders in mediating disputes and accessing vital social services.
Investments in youth employment programs, affordable housing, and public education are further components of the mayor’s strategy to reduce crime.
The broader context mirrors a national trend, with criminologists suggesting that increased community investment in job creation, infrastructure, and social programming since the pandemic may play a significant role in driving down crime rates.
“Schools are open. Violence interruption is more common than it was before. Youth and recreational services are back,” explained Wesley G. Skogan, a political scientist at Northwestern University.
Despite the declining crime rates, President Donald Trump has maintained a tough stance, threatening for weeks to send National Guard troops to Chicago. Recent developments indicate that the Department of Defense has begun preparations for a potential immigration operation in the area, as outlined in a report by the Chicago Sun-Times.
Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem confirmed that the Trump administration plans to expand immigration operations in Chicago shortly.
A federal judge in California recently referenced Trump’s threats to deploy National Guard troops in Chicago while ruling against his military deployment in Los Angeles, stating that it represents a serious violation of federal law.
Shortly after the judge’s decision, President Trump reiterated his plans, declaring he would send National Guard troops to Chicago, similar to actions he has taken in Washington D.C. and Los Angeles, although he did not specify a timeline for this deployment.
This declaration follows a particularly violent holiday weekend in Chicago, during which at least nine individuals were killed, and 52 others were wounded in various incidents across the city.
The question arises, however, about the timing of Trump’s promises to combat crime in Chicago, especially since the summer months traditionally represent a peak in violent activity. A West Side patrol officer, wishing to remain anonymous, questioned, “Where were they during the hottest days of summer?”
State Representative La Shawn K. Ford (D-Chicago) has called for National Guard support in the past amid violence on the West Side. He acknowledged the effectiveness of such assistance during civil unrest following George Floyd’s death in 2020 and during the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last year.
However, Ford now expresses reservations about deploying the National Guard, advocating for collaboration between federal agents and local police departments instead. He articulated concerns about innocent individuals being apprehended by federal agents in Washington.
Benny Estrada, who directs street outreach for the nonprofit New Life Centers in various Southwest Side neighborhoods, expressed apprehensions that the presence of immigration agents and National Guard troops might hinder community violence intervention efforts. “Some of our high-risk participants could definitely not want to work with us because they might be undocumented,” he cautioned.
Estrada was scheduled to meet with leaders of community violence intervention initiatives to define rights and responsibilities for outreach staffers amid the imminent federal operations. He described the situation as “new territory for us.”
The CPD monitors violent crimes across five defined categories for the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting program. In the analysis, WBEZ focuses on four categories: murder, criminal sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault/battery.
As of 2024, incidents in these four index categories totaled 27,670, reflecting a substantial decrease of 69.4% from the peak of 90,522 in 1991, which experts attribute to severe socio-economic issues such as concentrated poverty, a crack cocaine epidemic, escalating gang violence, and the easy availability of high-powered firearms.
Currently, violent crime rates are down by 21.5% compared to 2024,
according to city statistics. However, there remains a notable discrepancy between objective crime trends and public perception.
A University of Chicago survey revealed that half of the city’s residents report feeling unsafe in their neighborhoods at night. In communities grappling with high levels of violence, many residents express a desire for a stronger federal presence to assert safety and security.
Rutues noted that many people in his community would welcome the National Guard if focused on addressing guns and gangs. He mentioned the troubling access children have to weaponry, particularly “switches,” devices that convert pistols into machine guns, which have fueled recent spikes in violence.
He stated, “The people of the community are not manufacturing these pieces. We’re not bringing them in. And somehow they continue to flood our streets.” Accepting federal assistance to tackle this issue is seen as a potential avenue for positive change.
However, Rutues firmly opposes indiscriminate crackdowns and stated that Trump’s rhetoric often encourages law enforcement to indiscriminately apprehend individuals without addressing the underlying issues.
This complex situation raises questions about the effectiveness and appropriateness of federal intervention in a city witnessing combatting violent crime through different, locally rooted initiatives.
image source from：wbez
