In a significant shift not seen in over fifty years, the United States is witnessing a trend where immigrants leaving the country now outnumber those arriving. This change follows the aggressive deportation policies implemented during President Donald Trump’s administration.
According to recent analysis by the Pew Research Center, data from January to June reveals a sharp decline of over a million in the nation’s foreign-born population.
This decline came after millions sought refuge at the U.S. border between 2021 and 2023, following the devastating impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on their home countries. By 2023, California was reported to have 11.3 million immigrants, representing approximately 28.4% of the national total.
In January 2023, the U.S. had the highest number of immigrants on record, totaling 53.3 million. However, as immigration patterns changed in subsequent months, the immigrant population dropped to 51.9 million by June, marking the first decline since the 1960s. Notably, Pew did not provide estimates on the undocumented immigrant population.
President Donald Trump and his supporters have celebrated this outflow, with the President recently declaring on social media, ‘Promises Made. Promises Kept.’
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem lauded the administration’s success in curbing illegal immigration, stating in a USA Today column that the removal of undocumented immigrants is necessary for the welfare of American citizens.
Experts, however, are concerned that a continued decline in immigration may adversely affect the U.S. economy, particularly in light of a decreasing birth rate among native-born citizens. Victor Narro, project director at the UCLA Labor Center, emphasized the importance of immigrant workers for filling essential jobs as demographic shifts advance.
“Looking ahead in the future, we’re going to have to rely on immigrant workers to fulfill a lot of the jobs in this country,” Narro noted. “Like it or not, the demographics are going to be changing in this country. It’s already changing, but it’s going to be more pronounced in the future, especially with the decline in native-born workers.”
The Pew analysis also points to several immigration policy changes that have shaped the current landscape, many of which originated during President Biden’s administration. In June 2024, President Biden introduced a proclamation restricting migrants from seeking asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border when crossings are elevated, aiming to deter unauthorized entries.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump, upon beginning his second term, declared an ‘invasion’ at the southern border, implementing stringent entry restrictions for asylum seekers who arrived outside designated ports.
Following this, immigration enforcement operations intensified in Southern California, leading to federal deployments of Marines and National Guard troops in Los Angeles amid public protests against raids targeting undocumented immigrants.
As of this month, Homeland Security confirmed that approximately 4,481 undocumented immigrants have been arrested in the Los Angeles area since early June.
Despite the stark statistics of decreased immigration, some experts caution that the reported decline may not reflect actual trends due to a chilling effect on survey response rates amid heightened fears of deportation and immigration enforcement.
Narro expressed that these fears might discourage individuals from participating in surveys that contribute to the data collected.
Michael Capuano, research director at the Federation for American Immigration Reform, views the immigration data as a sign of effective border enforcement.
“We see it as a positive start,” Capuano stated. “Obviously enforcement at the border is now working. The population is beginning to decrease. We’d like to see that trend continue because, ultimately, we think the policy of the last four years has been proven to be unsustainable.”
He disagrees with the assertion that the decrease in immigration will lead to workforce disruptions, claiming that no job is off-limits for American workers. Data from Pew indicates that in 2023, there were 33 million immigrants contributing to the U.S. workforce, including around 10 million undocumented individuals. Immigrants represented nearly 19% of the workforce, up from 15% two decades prior.
Toby Higbie, a professor of history and labor studies at UCLA, underscored the critical role immigrants play in American society, refuting the notion that the federal government can simply remove immigrant workers.
“Those who are running the federal government right now imagine that they can remove all immigrants from this society, but it’s just not going to happen,” Higbie argued. “The children of immigrants will fight against it, and our country needs immigrant workers to make the economy work.”
Historical trends also provide context, as the United States previously experienced negative net immigration during the Great Depression in the 1930s, with significant numbers of Mexicans and Mexican Americans leaving the country due to government pressure.
Following this period, the U.S. initiated the bracero program in 1942, allowing millions of Mexican nationals to work in the country to counter labor shortages spurred by World War II.
Higbie anticipates that the decline in immigration will be temporary, citing potential increases in consumer prices resulting from labor shortages.
“You could say that there’s a cycle here where we invite immigrants to work in our economy, and then there’s a political reaction by some in our country, and they kick them out, and then we invite them back,” he stated. “I suspect that the Trump administration, after going through this process of brutally deporting people, will turn around and propose a guest worker program in order to maintain a docile immigrant workforce.”
image source from：latimes
