Seattle is experiencing a remarkable shift in its urban landscape, with its human population rising rapidly while the number of cars in the city has stagnated.
Recent Census data reveals that between 2017 and 2023, Seattle welcomed an additional 35,000 households, but only added 3,300 cars during the same period.
Gene Balk, in his ‘FYI Guy’ column in the Seattle Times, highlighted this trend, stating, ‘Census data shows the number of vehicles in the city has been effectively unchanged for years, even as the number of households has grown.’
The data indicates that this stagnation in car ownership has led to a decline in the rate of car ownership by about 10% within just six years.
Notably, the proportion of carless households has risen by 25%, now encompassing 20% of all households in Seattle, according to the Census data.
This trend is being significantly driven by renter households, with Balk noting that around 90% of carless homes in 2023 were rental units.
This dramatic rise in the number of households without cars has been a point of emphasis for Balk since 2019.
While this change was less visible prior to 2017, the city had been adding both population and vehicles until that time.
Balk’s analysis of the latest data offers several intriguing insights:
1. In 2023, there were 127 vehicles for every 100 city households, a drop from roughly 140 vehicles per 100 households in 2017.
2. The number of carless households hit a record 74,100 in 2023, representing 20% of all Seattle households, up from 53,200 or 16% in 2017.
3. From 2017 to 2023, the number of cars in Seattle remained virtually unchanged at slightly over 460,000, with an estimate of around 463,300 in 2023.
4. The household count in the city rose by 35,000 or 11% from 2017 to 2023, reaching 364,600 households in Seattle.
5. Among homeowners, there were approximately 177 vehicles per 100 households in 2023, whereas renters only had around 87 vehicles per 100 households.
As of April 2023, state estimates put Seattle’s population at 779,200 residents, with continued growth expected, reaching approximately 816,600 by April 2025.
It’s worth noting that Seattle surpassed 700,000 residents for the first time in 2017, marking the city as having added about 80,000 residents while only introducing 3,300 cars into its infrastructure.
However, this shift towards reduced car dependency is not fully reflected in the decisions made by Seattle policymakers.
For instance, traffic engineers are still working under the assumption that traffic will continually rise, leading to infrastructure plans that primarily emphasize adding car capacity rather than accommodating alternative transportation methods.
One notable situation is the Ballard Bridge replacement plan, which proposes to enhance a highway interchange, despite the city claiming the aging bridge needs replacing.
Critics argue that overbuilding the bridge for car traffic will hinder the experience for pedestrians, cyclists, and nearby residents, lacking support from realistic traffic models.
As traffic engineering often relies on speculative forecasts, the Ballard Bridge traffic study assumed that traffic would surpass capacity by 20% in 2040 based on a ‘crunch flow’ model projecting a 1.2% yearly increase.
Moreover, the Seattle Department of Transportation (SDOT) has recently expressed hesitance in expanding bus lanes on Denny Way, citing concerns over substantial delays to car traffic — a belief rooted in the assumption of infinite demand for car travel.
Despite a trend towards cutting car ownership rates, the city’s streets remain largely centered on accommodating cars.
Imagine the potential benefits of a more balanced approach if the city were to prioritize alternatives.
In comparison to suburban counterparts, Seattle is showcasing a unique trend in carless household formation that distinguishes it from other cities in Washington state.
For example, Bellevue’s rate of individuals commuting alone by car stands at 53.6%, which is about 40% higher than Seattle’s rate.
Seattle also has a significantly higher transit mode share at 14%, compared to Bellevue’s 7%, with walking commute rates at 8.5% for Seattle versus 4.5% for Bellevue.
Interestingly, Seattle’s cycling rate of 2.7% is nearly seven times that of Bellevue.
Furthermore, only 6.6% of workers in Bellevue reported lacking access to a car, which is less than half of Seattle’s rate.
While Seattle is not perfect, it ranks as one of the best places in the United States to live with a car-free or car-light lifestyle.
This momentum towards reduced car dependency is crucial to build upon.
In contrast, cities like Tacoma and Everett exhibit much more car-centric travel behaviors.
In Tacoma, the rate of individuals driving alone is at 66%, while Everett has an even higher rate at 72%.
Additionally, transit use accounts for less than 4% of commutes in both cities, according to the 2023 American Community Survey.
Seattle’s demonstrated ability to grow without an influx of cars presents a compelling case for increased transit ridership, a need that transit agencies must address to maintain this positive momentum.
This situation is particularly relevant as Sound Transit considers revisions to its timelines and plans due to increasing financial pressures, which may impact two light rail corridors in Seattle providing service to West Seattle and Ballard, along with a second tunnel through downtown.
There are diverging opinions among suburban board members, some advocating for delaying or scaling down Seattle projects to expedite light rail access to Tacoma and Everett.
In response, Seattle officials are arguing that prioritizing cuts to Seattle projects would not support future population and job growth, nor facilitate high ridership across the Link network.
The question remains whether transit demand on the outskirts of the network can meet ridership goals for Link.
Advocates for Tacoma and Everett might argue that their low transit mode share is due to the fact that the regional Link light rail network has not yet reached their areas, which won’t occur until at least the mid-2030s.
While light rail has the potential to boost transit use, both cities currently have access to Sounder commuter rail services and express buses, which already provide quicker routes to Downtown Seattle — the primary hub for jobs and major events — compared to light rail due to numerous stops along the route.
Consequently, light rail alone will not transform Tacoma and Everett into transit markets that can rival Seattle, or allow them to easily increase their number of car-free households.
Urbanists have long argued that Seattle’s growth is the most sustainable and transit-supportive approach, contributing positively to climate goals and enhancing the quality of life for its residents.
The data surrounding the formation of carless households strengthens this assertion, indicating that accommodating a growing population without an increase in car ownership is vital for fostering green urbanism and ensuring high living standards without the burden of traffic congestion and pollution.
Seattle could very well be onto a sustainable path for urban development.
image source from：theurbanist
