As history continues to unfold, the geopolitical landscape of Europe has been irrevocably altered. In 2030, the invasion of Estonia by Russia—a former Soviet republic—echoed the tragic events of Ukraine, jeopardizing the security of NATO member states.
Yet, the United States, under the leadership of President Donald Trump and the Republican Party’s isolationist wing, opted to remain aloof, leaving Europe to navigate this crisis on its own.
In this period of uncertainty, French President Emmanuel Macron emerged as a beacon of hope. He championed the cause of creating a single European nation—a United States of Europe that could stand resilient against external threats.
By 2035, an unprecedented shift occurred when seven European countries—France, Italy, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, and Poland—merged to form the European Federation, electing Macron as its first president.
As he completes his second term a decade later, the Federation now encompasses over 20 nations, effectively repelling the Russian aggression and transforming into a global superpower that rivals both America and China.
The notion of a United States of Europe may seem fantastical to some, but with escalating threats from Vladimir Putin and a perceived abandonment by Trump’s America, many argue that Europe must evolve decisively or risk disintegration.
New German Chancellor Friedrich Merz asserts that strengthening Europe must be prioritized to achieve independence from the United States.
A European federation, according to proponents, would foster unity far beyond the current framework of the European Union.
It would establish a cohesive governance system similar to the United States, allowing Europe to ensure its security, safeguard democratic values, and secure its place as a significant global player in the 21st century and beyond.
The European Union, as it currently stands, is often criticized for its cumbersome structure—an amalgamation of complex institutions that dilute political power.
With the split authority between the European Commission, the European Council, the Council of the European Union, and the European Parliament, many citizens find themselves baffled by its inner workings.
As surveys indicate, nearly half of Europeans are confused by this bureaucratic maze.
The sluggish pace at which the EU operates, coupled with the lack of a unified foreign policy, raises questions about its efficacy.
Historically, Henry Kissinger famously remarked, “Who do I call if I have to speak to Europe?” underscoring the fragmentation within the EU.
Supporters of a European federation such as historian Brendan Simms suggest a profound restructuring of the EU based on Anglo-American constitutional principles.
A federal Europe would mirror the governance models of the United Kingdom and the United States, with a central government supported by regional governments.
Simms’s vision includes a president elected by universal suffrage, a bicameral parliamentary system, a unified military, and a foreign intelligence agency, thereby creating a singular voice for Europe on the international stage.
The concept of a federal Europe isn’t entirely new. After World War II, six nations initiated plans for a European Political Community and drafted a constitution that outlined a parliamentary system applicable across member states, with a European army to boot.
However, the initiative faltered as France hesitated, wary of relinquishing sovereignty, leading to the project’s collapse.
In the aftermath of the Cold War, the EU was established in 1993, which hinted at the realization of a united Europe long envisioned by leaders like German Chancellor Helmut Kohl.
Yet, just like before, the idea of a political union was met with resistance from France, relegating the EU once again to an economic entity with limited political influence.
Kohl warned, “The idea of maintaining in the long run an economic and a currency union without political union is mistaken,” a sentiment that has proved prescient.
Despite initial hopes that the EU would rival the United States as a bastion of liberal civilization, various crises—the 2008 financial crash, the eurozone debt crisis, the 2015 migration wave, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine—revealed the urgent necessity of political cohesion.
Although the EU has started taking more substantial steps in recent years, particularly evident in its response to Russia’s incursion into Ukraine, where it has committed $50 billion in aid since 2022 and introduced rigorous plans for defense spending.
These measures signify a long-overdue awakening for Europe, morphing its previous passive stance into one that is proactive in defending its borders and interests.
Much of the impetus for this renewed European confidence can be attributed to Macron’s leadership.
Being a staunch advocate for a united Europe, he stressed that “Only Europe can guarantee genuine sovereignty or our ability to exist in today’s world to defend our values and interests.”
During the pandemic, his push for an €800 billion ($940 billion) recovery fund signified a leap toward economic collaborative efforts among member states, highlighting Europe’s potential in collective borrowing to bolster weaker economies.
This monumental moment, referred to as Europe’s “Hamiltonian moment,” further correlates with Macron’s assertion that unity was not merely a goal, but a necessity.
As tensions involving Russia escalate, it becomes increasingly clear that Europe must work collectively, as intelligence reports indicate further potential Russian aggression in Eastern Europe is imminent.
As President Trump indicates a preference for prioritizing bilateral negotiations with Putin over support for NATO allies, Europe’s need for independent security grows stronger.
Both Macron and Merz appear to recognize this pivotal moment in history—a moment where Europe can forge its path.
The envisioned United States of Europe holds the promise of becoming a formidable force in global geopolitics, buoyed by a population of 450 million and a robust economy valued at $20 trillion.
Moreover, a unified federation would better manage multinational corporations and work towards an economy advocating social democracy, vital for sustaining welfare states and societal benefits cherished by Europeans.
With the enormity of challenges such as climate change and the evolution of artificial intelligence on the horizon, collective action will be paramount—one that only a federation can deliver.
Far from being a utopian dream, advocates assert that a United States of Europe represents an evolutionary milestone responding to contemporary challenges.
Daniela Vancic of the Democracy International think tank emphasizes that there are factions in Brussels discussing the feasibility and necessity of such a federation.
Historically, federations have emerged during times of external threat, as seen in the formation of the United States.
The initial loose confederation transformed into a federal system born out of a need for security against more significant powers.
Successful unions often arise from intense crises rather than gradual evolution, making the present moment critical for Europe.
However, amidst crises, the realization of a European superstate will not spontaneously manifest.
It requires the explicit will and determination of its political leaders.
The current landscape of European politics reveals a stark divide between pro-European parties and nationalist, Euro-skeptic movements.
Thus, proponents of European unity must move beyond merely defending against nationalist sentiments; they must strongly advocate for a new federal structure.
Failing to present this vision could enable nationalists to dominate the political discourse.
The choice before Europeans is no longer merely maintaining the status quo of the EU against nationalism.
Rather, it is about advocating for deeper integration versus succumbing to nationalist ideologies.
That said, hopes for unity are intertwined with public sentiment.
Although perceptions of the EU may be fraught, there is a significant portion of the population open to a more unified Europe.
Eurobarometer polls reveal that 81 percent of Europeans support a common defense policy, and 74 percent endorse the euro, showcasing an underlying desire for cohesion.
Moreover, survey results indicate that citizens exhibit greater trust in the EU compared to their national governments.
These findings offer a glimmer of hope that a federalist approach could resonate with many Europeans, potentially even garnering a majority.
However, without vocal support from their leaders, Europeans may not advocate for such unity.
In this pivotal role, Macron is seen as a key figure, with rumors of his aspiration to become the first president of the United States of Europe.
At 47, Macron is poised with both youthful ambition and the gravity of the task ahead.
As Europe stands at a crossroads, the future may very well hinge on the actions and aspirations of its leaders.
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