The NATO summit opening Tuesday in The Hague comes at a critical moment for the transatlantic alliance, amid rising tensions due to an aggressive Russia and a seemingly disengaged United States.
This year’s summit is heavily scrutinized as it unfolds against the backdrop of shifting geopolitical loyalties and engagements.
Sylvie Kauffmann, a columnist for the French newspaper Le Monde, noted the dramatic change in atmosphere from last year’s summit in Washington, D.C., which convened 32 nations celebrating NATO’s 75th anniversary under the motto: “Stronger and safer together, in NATO.”
Kauffmann highlighted that just a year ago, the alliance was rejuvenated by Russian aggression in Ukraine, rallying around its primary partner, the United States.
However, with President Donald Trump now in the White House, Kauffmann observed that the dynamics had completely shifted.
NATO, consisting of 32 member states—including 30 European nations along with the United States and Canada—faces multifaceted pressures during this summit.
Experts like Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, president of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, see the summit as a significant test for the alliance, which has been strained by concurrent crises.
She stated that the ongoing war in Ukraine, tensions in the Indo-Pacific, and escalating conflicts in the Middle East present a unique set of challenges for NATO.
In light of these circumstances, the United States may need to reconsider its engagement on the European continent, which could force European allies to prepare for a more independent security framework.
The urgency of the situation is not lost on NATO’s new Secretary General, former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who is advocating for increased defense spending among member nations.
Rutte emphasized a pressing need for a “quantum leap” in defense capabilities, specifically calling for a staggering 400-percent increase in air and missile defenses to protect against Russian threats.
Since assuming the role last October, Rutte has cautioned member countries to allocate “considerably more than 3%” of their economic value towards defense.
In a recent Chatham House interview, he warned that the risks associated with security in Europe would not dissipate even if the war in Ukraine comes to an end.
Historically, European nations have benefited from the American military umbrella, allowing them to focus on building robust internal welfare systems.
Rutte warned that this reliance must evolve as Europe now faces crucial decisions.
He remarked, “You could still have your health systems, the pension system… but you better learn to speak Russian. I mean, that’s the consequence.”
While the U.S. might be inclined to divert its focus elsewhere, de Hoop Scheffer underscored that the conflict in Ukraine presents an existential threat for Europe, declaring that Europe cannot afford to lose this war.
As the discussions unfold, defense spending is expected to dominate the agenda, particularly as European members of NATO are pushed to commit to a new 5% target.
De Hoop Scheffer noted that despite the ongoing conflict, Ukraine’s military capacities are becoming increasingly intertwined with Europe’s defense strategy.
She pointed out that as the war continues, European countries are coming to see Ukraine’s innovations in military technology—like drone warfare—as crucial for future military industrial collaboration.
Amid these developments, Kauffmann remarked on the uncertainty surrounding the summit, referring to the U.S. as an increasingly elusive and hostile ally.
She also mentioned recent U.S. military actions in the Middle East, particularly airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites ordered by President Trump, further complicating the security landscape as NATO focuses on its agenda.
Given the quickening pace of the summit, the focus will be on making tough decisions within a condensed timeframe, with the 2025 NATO summit promised to be even shorter, culminating in a one-page communiqué.
Some European commentators advocate for reimagining the transatlantic alliance, considering a future where the continent may have to navigate security without American oversight.
Consensus seems to be coalescing around the notion that the NATO of the past 75 years is facing an irreparable transformation.
In light of these challenges, de Hoop Scheffer summarized that the essence of this NATO summit is about European solidarity, urging that, “We must seriously step it up and collectively commit to our own security and defense. We don’t have a choice.”
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