In recent years, San Diego’s educational landscape has shifted dramatically, marked by a significant drop in student enrollment.
As Sarah Hillard, a teacher at Millennial Tech Middle, reflects on her decade of service, she notes a disturbing trend; what once was a rounded enrollment figure of 500 students now hovers around just 400.
“It’s definitely a big, noticeable difference,” Hillard states, highlighting the grim realities faced by schools.
Millennial Tech is situated in the Chollas View neighborhood, an area significantly impacted by the declining numbers of students.
Like many schools in the county, this institution is contending with a 19 percent reduction in enrollment over the last ten years, directly resulting in diminished funding and the loss of essential programs.
Moreover, fewer students necessitate fewer teachers, creating a trickle-down effect on educational quality and offerings.
The physical ramifications are evident as well. Millennial Tech is currently undergoing full-site renovations, including building a new administration center and planning for a STEM facility next year.
Originally, a three-story academic building was slated for construction, but in light of falling enrollment numbers, plans were drastically scaled back.
Hillard recounts the shocking realization: “As our enrollment declined, the building that was going to be three stories became two stories, became one story, became completely gone. We lost an entire building with three floors of classrooms because we haven’t been able to maintain our enrollment.”
While Millennial Tech’s situation feels dire, it is performing better than many schools in the area.
Carmel Valley Middle in San Dieguito has faced an alarming 54 percent drop in enrollment, while Rodriguez Elementary within San Diego Unified has lost 53 percent of its students.
South Bay Union’s Teofilo Mendoza School is down 52 percent, illustrating a concerning trend across the district.
The overall statistics are stark; San Diego County has seen a loss of 27,004 public school students since 2014, marking a 5 percent decline.
This trend is not exclusive to San Diego, as California grapples with a broader statewide issue.
In 2024, there were 429,299 fewer students in California public schools compared to a decade ago, a significant 7 percent reduction.
While some districts have weathered these storms with little change, others have faced such rapid declines that school closures have become a necessary consideration.
The causes behind these stark enrollment fluctuations are complex and often out of the school leaders’ hands.
Factors such as dwindling birth rates and escalating costs of living in the region contribute heavily to falling numbers.
Although enrollment declines locally seem to have slowed since the peak during the pandemic, projections indicate that local schools could lose more than 110,000 students over the next few decades, reshaping public education in San Diego considerably.
“There are just fewer children,” remarks Alvarado, the education projectionist at California’s Department of Finance.
Despite initial enrollment drops being attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic, it has become clear that the decline is a part of a larger, ongoing trend.
Statistics reveal that since peaking in 2018, San Diego county schools lost about 26,000 students between 2019 and 2022.
While families pulled their children from public schools during the pandemic, the rate of enrollment at private institutions has remained stable and didn’t offer much solace.
The rise in homeschooling during the pandemic fails to account for the thousands of missing students from public schools, pressing the importance of finding clear answers.
Hillard and others are left wondering where these students have gone.
“They may no longer exist,” she theorizes, referencing declining birth rates and changes in familial structures.
Alvarado echoes these sentiments, sharing his experiences projecting enrollment changes, noting consistent declines in birth rates.
Indeed, California has experienced significant reductions in its birth rate, recently marking its lowest point since the year 2000.
San Diego County mirrored this trend, reporting a staggering 20 percent reduction in births from 2014 to 2024.
The rise in the cost of living in the San Diego region has only exacerbated these issues.
Within just a five-year period between 2019 and 2024, average rent for a one-bedroom apartment skyrocketed by 41 percent, while home prices more than doubled in the same timeframe.
San Diego consistently ranks among the most expensive places to live, forcing families to look elsewhere for more affordable housing options.
Nicole DeWitt, deputy superintendent for San Diego Unified, has noted the struggles her district faces as a result of the ongoing affordability crisis.
The district has lost approximately 16,000 students—a 12 percent decrease in enrollment—over the past decade.
The pandemic saw families leaving for more economical locations such as Arizona, Nevada, or Idaho, seeking relief from housing pressures.
Child care costs also compound the challenges for families, further squeezing parents who are grappling with the region’s high prices and limited resources.
DeWitt explains, “The cost of living has continued to grow, especially in cities like San Diego, so, there are just fewer children within our boundaries than there were before. That is an outside force that we don’t have any control over.”
Enrollment trends indicate that urban and suburban districts alike are feeling the pressure, with over 70 percent of public schools countywide experiencing reductions in student numbers over the past decade.
Of the 43 districts in San Diego, 36 have reported enrollment declines, each experiencing varying degrees of impact.
Some districts, such as Borrego Springs and Dehesa Elementary, have even reported enrollment increases, often tied to strong performances from charter schools.
Conversely, the broader trend reveals a sharp decrease in student numbers at district-run public schools, which have lost nearly 53,000 students (about 12 percent).
In stark contrast, enrollment for charter schools has surged, marking a 41 percent increase with nearly 26,000 new students attracted during the same decade.
This divergence serves as a vivid representation of changing preferences among families seeking educational options.
Some local districts in coastal areas have suffered significant losses, notably Del Mar with a 20 percent decline and Encinitas at 21 percent.
In working-class areas, districts such as National Elementary and Lemon Grove have experienced declines of 25 and 22 percent, respectively.
Focusing on South Bay Union, a district encompassing eleven elementary and middle schools around Imperial Beach, it has witnessed substantial reductions.
Enrollment in South Bay Union plummeted by nearly 29 percent over the last decade, reaching a staggering 37 percent when excluding charter school data.
Superintendent Jose Espinoza acknowledges that the district faces similar challenges impacting schools across the county, only at an accelerated rate.
In response to dwindling numbers, the district’s board recently approved plans to close one elementary school, with the prospect of closing additional schools looming if declines persist.
“If enrollment continues to decline, and I believe it will, we will close two more schools in the coming years,” Espinoza predicts.
Despite the tough decisions, community pushback against closures has been fierce, with parents making their voices heard at board meetings.
Espinoza candidly remarks on the overwhelming nature of the situation, stating, “Had I known that that was the level of work needed here, I may have thought twice before taking this job.”
To counter declining enrollment, the district has worked diligently to adapt programming to meet community needs in hopes of attracting families back to public schools.
However, issues such as demographic shifts—longtime homeowners aging out and closing off opportunities for younger families—present monumental challenges.
Additionally, health crises such as the Tijuana River’s sewage pollution have raised concerns among families, compounded by fears for children’s safety.
In an effort to combat these issues, the district allocated funds for air purifiers in classrooms, though many believe that addressing these ailments requires more comprehensive solutions.
Superintendent Espinoza reflects, “If I’m a family that’s living within my district and I can afford to relocate, I’m going to do that.
That perspective underlines the uncertain future facing districts as they navigate declining enrollments and dwindling budgets.
The past few years might suggest that the downward trend is less severe, as local enrollment rates slowed and even showed a slight uptick for the first time in five years in 2023.
However, experts caution that this potential recovery may only be a short-term aberration.
California’s rollout of universal transitional kindergarten has created an influx of students, masking the reality that enrollment has steadily declined across most grades.
As this program reached its final phase, the anticipated surge of new young students is no longer forthcoming.
Laura Hill, a policy director at the Public Policy Institute of California, emphasizes the necessity of recognizing the broader trends.
“If you’re able to convince families to be a part of your district that otherwise wouldn’t have because of the wonderful program that they see at the TK level, it will be an improvement at the margins,” she said.
“But it’s not going to be a permanent fix, because you’re just seeing kids a year earlier than you would have.”
Predictions from the Department of Finance foresight underscore the daunting reality, projecting that the decline will accelerate to 10.5 percent over the next decade.
This indicates an additional loss of 50,185 students, compounding the challenges faced by an already strained educational system.
By 2044, the state anticipates a staggering 61,844 more students will be lost, which equates to around a 28 percent drop since 2014.
Such a significant loss would wield profound implications for funding, enrollment, and instructor availability in San Diego schools.
The projections serve as a wake-up call, moving educational leaders to address these challenges head-on.
Some districts, like San Diego Unified, are taking bold initiatives to tackle underlying issues that have previously been deemed out of their control.
More than a thousand affordable housing units are being planned on unused school district properties, indicative of attempts to lure families back to the region.
However, it is clear that transformations of this magnitude require extensive planning, resources, and community support.
Superintendent Espinoza concludes with a moment of clarity, emphasizing the importance of acknowledging the decline.
“The first step is to accept this is happening. Nobody’s making up these numbers. You can go into classrooms and go, ‘Wow. We used to have 700 students in this school. Now we have 300.'”
image source from：voiceofsandiego
