A U.S. assessment has revealed that one of the three nuclear enrichment sites in Iran, struck by the United States last month, was mostly destroyed, which will significantly set back work there.
However, the remaining two sites experienced less damage and may be in a condition where nuclear enrichment could resume within the next several months if Iran chooses to do so, according to insights from five current and former U.S. officials familiar with the assessment shared with NBC News.
This evaluation is part of the Trump administration’s ongoing efforts to monitor the status of Iran’s nuclear program post-strikes, and it has recently been briefed to select lawmakers, Defense Department officials, and allied nations.
A more extensive plan to target Iran was also in development by U.S. Central Command, which included additional strikes on three more sites.
This operation would have taken place over several weeks instead of just one night, according to one current and two former U.S. officials.
President Donald Trump received a briefing on this detailed plan but decided against it, citing it contradicted his inclination towards reducing U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts and the potential for increased casualties.
One of the officials with knowledge of the plan stated, “We were willing to go all the way in our options, but the president did not want to.”
In the immediate aftermath of the airstrikes, Trump characterized the operation as “a spectacular military success” and asserted that “Iran’s key enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.”
However, the real impact, as gleaned from ongoing intelligence, appears more complex.
Should the initial assessment concerning damage to Iran’s nuclear capabilities hold true, the U.S. may find itself returning to confrontation with Iran.
Discussions have been occurring within both American and Israeli governments regarding the potential necessity of additional strikes on the two less-damaged facilities if Iran does not resume negotiations with the Trump administration regarding a nuclear deal or shows signs of rebuilding operations at those sites.
Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear ambitions are focused solely on peaceful, civilian applications.
The recent assessment presents a snapshot of the destruction inflicted by U.S. strikes, part of a longer intelligence-gathering endeavor projected to last several months.
As this evaluation process unfolds, findings may evolve, and current insights suggest that damage may be more extensive than previously believed.
This understanding currently reflects the U.S. officials’ thoughts on the strike’s effectiveness.
According to White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly, “As the President has said and experts have verified, Operation Midnight Hammer totally obliterated Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
America and the world are safer, thanks to his decisive action.”
Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell echoed this sentiment, asserting, “The credibility of the Fake News Media is similar to that of the current state of the Iranian nuclear facilities: destroyed, in the dirt, and will take years to recover.
President Trump was clear and the American people understand: Iran’s nuclear facilities in Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz were completely and totally obliterated.
There is no doubt about that.”
He further asserted, “Operation Midnight Hammer was a significant blow to Iran’s nuclear capabilities thanks to the decisive action of President Trump and the bravery of every man and woman in uniform who supported this mission.”
The U.S. strikes targeted three key enrichment sites: Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan.
U.S. officials believe that the operation targeting Fordo, a critical part of Iran’s nuclear aspirations, was largely successful and may have delayed Iranian enrichment capabilities at that site by as much as two years.
Public communications from the administration have prominently featured the strike at Fordo.
In a Pentagon briefing responding to reporting on an initial Defense Intelligence Agency assessment, leaders highlighted the specifics of the operation at Fordo while remaining less focused on impacts at Natanz and Isfahan.
Prior to the airstrikes, U.S. officials recognized that certain structures and enriched uranium at Natanz and Isfahan could be unreachable even with advanced munitions, specifically the 30,000-pound GBU-57 “bunker buster” bombs, which were designed primarily to vanquish deeply buried targets like those at Fordo.
Reports from as early as 2023 indicated that Iran was constructing tunnels at Natanz lower than those that the GBU-57 could penetrate, with similar structures at Isfahan.
Consequently, the U.S. utilized Tomahawk missiles for surface-target engagements at Isfahan, while the GBU-57s were deployed at Natanz.
In a classified briefing held in late June, CIA Director John Ratcliffe informed lawmakers that Iran’s nuclear program had suffered severe damage, with several key facilities being “completely destroyed.”
He indicated that the critical metal conversion facility at Natanz, essential for nuclear enrichment, was rendered to the extent that it would require years to reconstruct.
Furthermore, Ratcliffe remarked that intelligence suggests that the strikes had buried the majority of enriched uranium at Isfahan and Fordo, complicating Iranian efforts to recover it for enrichment.
Currently, U.S. officials have not observed any indications that Iran is attempting to excavate the facilities.
Reports indicate that the Israeli government believes some of Iran’s highly enriched uranium remains intact but buried beneath the Isfahan site.
However, an Israeli official noted that they deem the material effectively unreachable, monitoring the situation closely and prepared to conduct new strikes if Iran attempts to recover the buried uranium.
The Israeli official further stated that Iran’s nuclear program has been delayed by up to two years.
Even though the targeted Iranian nuclear sites were not entirely obliterated, U.S. officials and Republican advocates argue that the operation has still significantly altered the strategic context for Iran.
Currently, the regime in Tehran faces a credible threat of further airstrikes should the U.S. and Israel perceive attempts to revive clandestine nuclear operations.
When questioned last month about the possibility of additional bombings in response to intelligence reports indicating troubling levels of uranium enrichment, Trump affirmed, “Sure. Without question. Absolutely.”
Reports suggest that Iran’s air defenses have been largely decimated, severely limiting its ability to counter potential future strikes on its facilities.
An official stated, “It was made clear that Iran no longer has any more [air defenses], so the idea that they can easily rebuild anything is ludicrous.”
As the Trump administration transitioned to the Biden administration, discussions regarding a more robust military response began.
By fall and into spring, Army Gen. Erik Kurilla, head of U.S. Central Command, developed a comprehensive plan aimed at striking Iran comprehensively.
This approach was envisioned to “truly decimate” Iran’s nuclear capabilities, involving multiple targeted attacks on six different sites.
The rationale behind this strategy was that multiple strikes would be necessary to inflict substantial and lasting damage to end Iran’s nuclear pursuits altogether.
The plan also aimed to damage Iran’s air defense and ballistic missile capabilities, with expectations of significant Iranian casualties.
U.S. officials anticipated that such an escalation would provoke retaliation from Iran targeting American interests, particularly in Iraq and Syria.
One official described this potential operation as a sustained air campaign.
Some officials from the Trump administration regarded this more aggressive strategy against Iran as a viable option.
President Trump was informed of this extensive strategy but ultimately decided against pursuing it, as it would entail a prolonged conflict.
The background of these actions dates back to Trump’s first term when in 2018, he withdrew the U.S. from a nuclear agreement established in 2015 between Iran and world powers.
This accord, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, had imposed stringent limitations on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for alleviating economic sanctions.
After exiting the deal and reinstating sanctions, Iran began violating the terms of the agreement and boosting its uranium enrichment activities.
Before the June airstrikes, U.S. officials, alongside United Nations inspectors, assessed that Iran had amassed sufficient fissile material for approximately nine to ten nuclear bombs.
Following these events, Trump aimed to negotiate a new agreement with Iran to ensure that it would not develop nuclear weapons.
Previous indirect discussions between U.S. and Iranian officials ultimately failed to yield a new deal before Israel’s airstrikes targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities.
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