Good evening. I’m John Yang. In Oman today, the United States and Iran appear to have taken the first steps that could lead to a new agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear activities and lift U.S. economic sanctions.
On social media, the Omani foreign minister, who mediated today’s indirect talks, stated that they took place in a friendly atmosphere conducive to bridging viewpoints.
The White House described the meeting as very positive and constructive.
The Iranian foreign minister mentioned that the two sides briefly interacted when their paths crossed at the end of today’s session and confirmed that they will meet again next Saturday.
Karim Sadjadpour is a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, focusing on Iran and U.S. Middle East policy.
Karim observed that the brief encounter seemed indicative of an agreement to meet again.
He remarked that this outcome is about as much as anyone could have hoped for, but he urged realistic expectations moving forward.
Sadjadpour emphasized that this is not a negotiation aimed at U.S.-Iran rapprochement or a normalization akin to Nixon’s visit to China.
Instead, the focus is primarily on whether both sides can agree on limitations regarding Iran’s nuclear program, which he forewarned would be a tall order.
He elaborated that President Trump faces significant challenges in reversing Iran’s nuclear program, particularly since his withdrawal from the 2015 agreement in 2018 led Iran to accelerate its nuclear ambitions.
Karim illustrated this point by likening Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear bomb to running a marathon, stating that Iran is currently at mile 25 in a 26-mile race.
The challenge for President Trump will be substantial, and if he cannot significantly curb Iran’s program, he will face pressure from two key constituencies: congressional Republicans and Israel.
Sadjadpour raised concerns about whether these constituencies would accept a nuclear deal that might be perceived as weaker than the one initiated during the Obama administration, which Trump had unilaterally abrogated.
He stated that these negotiations will not simply revolve around the art of deal-making but will more likely focus on the science of verification.
These are not theatrical discussions, but rather technical in nature.
Sadjadpour also noted an imbalance in expertise among the negotiating teams, asserting that while the U.S. does possess significant leverage over Iran, it lacks the deep understanding and long-term experience that Iranian diplomats have accumulated over the last two decades.
He pointed out that President Trump’s negotiating ally, Steve Witkoff, may have had limited involvement in these discussions for just a couple of months.
Karim pointed out that Iran is among the most sanctioned nations in the world, and its regime is highly unpopular domestically.
Furthermore, he indicated that Iran has faced humiliation in recent months, particularly as Israel has successfully targeted various Iranian proxies and dismantled Iran’s military air defense systems, rendering the nation militarily vulnerable.
On the other hand, Sadjadpour reflected on President Trump’s expressed eagerness to reach an agreement, highlighting the heightened urgency stemming from Iran’s incremental advances towards nuclear weaponization.
He drew a stark contrast between the two countries’ leadership dynamics, asserting that President Trump is known for his theatrical approach to negotiations and his desire to resolve U.S.-Iran relations.
Conversely, on the Iranian side stands Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, arguably the longest-serving dictator globally at the age of 85.
He posited that if Khamenei were to write a book, it would not be titled The Art of the Deal but rather The Art of Resistance, a principle he has defended for over four decades as a stance against the United States.
Karim underscored that Khamenei’s identity intertwines with the Iranian slogan of
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