Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni is set to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday, marking a significant moment as she becomes the first European leader to engage in face-to-face talks with him since his announcement of a 20% tariff on European exports, which he later suspended.
This meeting comes at a critical juncture in the ongoing trade tensions, with Meloni not only representing Italy but also acting as a key figure for the European Union.
In preparation for the visit, Meloni has been in close consultation with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, emphasizing the coordination between her government and the EU.
“We know we are in a difficult moment,” Meloni stated on the eve of her departure from Rome.
She acknowledges the weight of her responsibilities, expressing awareness of what she stands to defend during this delicate negotiation period.
The EU is currently focused on preserving what it identifies as “the most important commercial relationship in the world,” highlighting annual trade figures that reach an astounding 1.6 trillion euros ($1.8 trillion).
The authority on trade negotiations rests with the European Commission, which is advocating for a zero-for-zero tariff deal with the U.S.
However, discussions with the Trump administration indicate a steadfast insistence on a minimum 10% tariff on all foreign imports, with the president having temporarily paused a planned increase to 20% for 90 days, igniting hopes for potential negotiations.
Experts suggest that Meloni’s efforts may not warrant outright concessions but rather a clearer understanding of Trump’s long-term objectives.
Fabian Zuleeg, chief economist at the European Policy Center think tank in Brussels, describes Meloni’s mission as highly precarious, noting the importance of informal exchanges, which Trump prefers, that can essentially serve as negotiations.
Given her position as the leader of a far-right party, Meloni shares ideological alignments with Trump on various critical issues, such as curbing migration, advocating traditional values, and skepticism around multilateral institutions.
Nevertheless, stark contrasts have emerged regarding Meloni’s firm support for Ukraine amidst the shifting dynamics of U.S. policy under Trump that have at times strained the trans-Atlantic alliance.
As the only European leader to attend President Trump’s inauguration, Meloni has shown a balanced approach amidst the volatility of U.S. foreign policy, notably denouncing the tariffs as “wrong” and cautioning that a division of the West would lead to disastrous outcomes for all parties involved.
Meloni’s approach has been characterized by caution, according to Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst at the Teneo consultancy in London, particularly necessary given the fluid nature of Trump’s dealings and statements.
With a notable trade surplus of 40 billion euros with the U.S., Italy’s economic ties are essential, especially as they pertain to U.S. consumption of Italian products, including sparkling wine, Parmigiano Reggiano cheese, Parma ham, and luxury fashion.
These sectors are vital for the Italian economy, largely benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises that form the core of Meloni’s center-right voter base.
Experts believe Meloni’s focus during the meeting will likely center on reinforcing the robust economic and trade ties between Italy and the U.S., extending beyond exports to also encompass services and energy.
For instance, Italy might consider increasing its imports of natural gas from the United States, further diversifying energy sources.
This highly anticipated meeting unfolds against a backdrop of rising global uncertainty triggered by ongoing tariff wars, which have already impacted Italy’s growth forecast for the year, reducing it from 1% to 0.5%.
Additionally, Meloni is expected to discuss Trump’s longstanding demand for NATO allies to boost military expenditures to 2% of gross domestic product.
Currently, Italy’s defense spending is at 1.49%, which is among the lower rates in Europe.
While experts advise against overestimating the likelihood of substantial progress from this meeting, they agree that simply participating in the meeting and returning with insights into Washington’s framework for future relations concerning trade, defense, and Ukraine policy would represent a significant diplomatic success for Meloni.
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