The recent passing of Richard Armitage, former United States Deputy Secretary of State, and Joseph Nye, Harvard University Professor Emeritus, has significant implications for Japan’s diplomatic approach.
Both figures were well-respected as leading ‘Japan hands’ in Washington, and their absence raises questions about the future of US-Japan relations.
In parallel, John Hamre, president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), announced his retirement, signaling a major shift in influential voices regarding international affairs.
As Japanese politicians continue to visit Washington, engaging with figures like Armitage became almost ritualistic.
However, a senior researcher from a US think tank indicates that Japan is still trapped in an outdated mindset.
Tokyo seems to believe that merely engaging with a few Japan-friendly officials in Washington suffices to safeguard its interests, a notion that is no longer valid.
In light of the evolving global security landscape, Japan’s approach to defense is coming under scrutiny.
Reflecting growing urgency in the Japanese government, the Japan Foundation recently invited Oren Cass, founder of the conservative think tank American Compass, to discuss defense priorities.
Cass, a known associate of US Vice President JD Vance, emphasized in a Chuo Koron dialogue that the discussions regarding the percentage of GDP allocated to defense are missing the more critical issue: the credibility of Japan and Germany in their ability to defend themselves against their regional threats.
He posits that substantial increases in defense budgets may be necessary for both nations, notably Japan in the context of China and Germany regarding Russia.
Similar sentiments were echoed by Elbridge Colby, the US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, who, in his written testimony to a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, urged Japan to boost its defense spending to 3% of GDP as soon as feasible.
Colby also expressed the importance for Taiwan to aim for 10% of its GDP in defense expenditures.
During his Japan visit, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth remarked positively on Japan’s decision-making concerning necessary defense capabilities without directly specifying defense spending.
Cass’s remarks resonate with the prevailing views among allies of the Trump administration, indicating a shared concern regarding Japan’s defense posture.
Fred Fleitz, vice president of the America First Policy Institute, also shared in an interview that while Trump maintains a generally satisfied position with Japan’s doubling of its defense budget, he is not pressing for immediate further commitments.
Fleitz mentioned the burgeoning expectations for Japan to adopt a greater role in securing mutual defense responsibilities, suggesting that any potential pressures would likely be communicated discreetly and amicably, contrasting with the publicly voiced demands seen in Europe.
In a recent interview, Matt Pottinger, former Deputy National Security Advisor during Trump’s administration, underscored the importance of Japan proper coordination with the US and Taiwan in preparing for potential contingencies regarding Taiwan’s security.
He hailed Japan’s increased defense spending and the strengthening of its military bases in the Nansei Islands but insisted on further detailed planning among allied nations in crisis scenarios.
Pottinger declared that Japan’s clear demonstration of its capability and resolve to defend itself would reduce the possibility of conflict, emphasizing that active measures are essential for successful deterrence.
As authoritarian regimes aggressively challenge the status quo globally, the urgency for Japan to have a proactive security strategy has intensified.
Experts aligned with the Trump administration emphasize that every nation must be self-defense capable, highlighting their concerns regarding Japan’s historically passive stance in its defense strategy.
Economist Keiichiro Kobayashi urges Japanese leaders to view ongoing negotiations with the United States as an opportunity to redefine Japan’s economic policies rather than simply a dispute over tariffs imposed by Trump.
He encourages Japanese policymakers to articulate an expansive strategic vision and a new framework for global economic governance amidst these negotiations.
Contrarily, officials such as Defense Minister Gen Nakatani continue to maintain the separation of trade and security issues, despite the clear need for an integrated dialogue to address the rapidly changing geopolitical dynamics.
China’s recent provocations, particularly its violations of Japan’s airspace near the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture, illustrate the growing pressures on Japan to respond assertively.
Despite the breaches by a China Coast Guard vessel, which is emblematic of increasing intimidation, Japan’s political leadership responses have been muted, typically confined to formal expressions of regret or protest.
This raises concerns about whether the seriousness of the threats posed by China is comprehended by Japan’s leaders.
In domestic discussions, the dialogue between former LDP Policy Research Council Chair Koichi Hagiuda and former Minister for Economic Security Takayuki Kobayashi has highlighted Japan’s national challenges posed by Trump’s tariffs while viewing them as an impetus for governmental introspection.
Hagiuda emphasized the need to lessen Japan’s reliance on foreign powers, particularly the US, underscoring the importance of food self-sufficiency among other areas.
Kobayashi agreed with a sense of urgency in striving to shape a nation resilient against external pressures and influences.
As Hagiuda advised Kobayashi, positioned as a potential LDP leadership contender, he stressed the necessity for political courage to confront challenges directly.
This realization suggests that Japan can no longer depend on a select few ‘Japan experts’ in Washington for its security strategy; a paradigm shift is overdue to meet contemporary threats.
image source from：https://japan-forward.com/washington-wants-more-from-japan-defense-burden-readiness-and-resolve/
