War games organized by military and political experts have emerged as crucial tools for strategic analysis, simulating decision-making processes that might unfold between nations. These exercises involve role-playing scenarios where different teams represent various countries and navigate responses to hypothetical events, not for the purposes of winning or losing but to challenge pre-existing beliefs and confront the difficult realities of global politics.
Recent instances of such war games, often held by Washington think tanks or even the U.S. government, have generated significant media attention. For example, one scenario explored whether Iran would retaliate against U.S. interests following an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities, specifically the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. Other war games posited alarming possibilities, such as China positioning its navy at Iran’s Kharg Oil Terminal to safeguard Iran’s oil exports from American retaliation or considering attacks on U.S. facilities in Guam and Singapore prior to a potential invasion of Taiwan. Additionally, discussions raised the question of how much military support NATO could offer Ukraine against Russia before the latter might resort to nuclear options.
One notable advantage of these exercises is their ability to push diplomats and policymakers away from wishful thinking, compelling them to confront uncomfortable truths. The Trump administration’s substantial investment in fostering ties with Turkey highlights this dynamic. This approach, based not on Turkey’s reality as a state that sponsors terror but rather on commercially-driven promises made by President Erdoğan, has led to significant inconsistencies in U.S. foreign policy. Notably, the U.S. cannot simultaneously support Turkey while opposing Hamas; such support inherently links the two, especially as much of Hamas’ operations are now orchestrated in Istanbul, which harbors the group’s leaders and financiers.
Given Turkey’s increasingly hostile stance toward Israel, characterized by Erdoğan’s calls for military action and incitement against the Jewish state, it is essential to recognize the potential for armed conflict between Turkey and Israel. Tensions may ignite in regions like Syria, where Erdoğan’s regime is utilizing Hay’at Tahrir al Sham to effectively create a proxy conflict akin to Iran’s use of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Furthermore, as Erdoğan charts a nuclear path similar to that of Iran, notably through Turkey’s nuclear ambitions masked as a civilian program, the stakes are raised.
The implications of a potential war between a NATO ally and Israel are far-reaching, raising questions about the nature of such a conflict. Would it entail missile strikes, drone warfare, or even naval confrontations in the Eastern Mediterranean? How would both nations employ U.S.-supplied weaponry, and could Turkey attempt a military operation to bifurcate Israel at its narrowest point?
The U.S.’s response in this scenario is crucial. How would neighboring countries of Israel react? For instance, King Abdullah II of Jordan, who faces domestic resentment toward Israel, might struggle to maintain stability in the face of increased public hostility. Moreover, could Turkey resort to employing Syrian jihadists or veterans of the Islamic State, as they did in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
In light of the Trump administration’s renewed interest in facilitating an F-35 Joint Strike Fighter sale to Turkey, it is vital for the Pentagon and Congress to evaluate the consequences of such advanced aircraft being used in a potential conflict against Israel. The geopolitical landscape remains tenuous, with diplomatic efforts often trapped in a bubble of false comfort that ignores the realities on the ground.
The potential for conflict between Israel and Turkey, once thought far-fetched, is now a pressing concern that could materialize within a decade. The urgent question facing Washington is whether it can mitigate these risks, understand the implications of military sales in this context, and clarify its strategic interests in the region.
image source from：https://www.meforum.org/mef-online/the-u-s-must-war-game-an-israel-turkey-conflict
