The decades-long Western Sahara dispute may soon see definitive resolution as President Donald Trump’s administration signals a shift in strategy toward this longstanding conflict.
A recent analysis from the Instituto Coordenadas de Gobernanza y Economia Aplicada highlights the Trump administration’s push for Algeria and the Polisario Front to engage in negotiations with Morocco, pointing out that the only viable political solution is autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty.
During his first term, President Trump made a landmark diplomatic breakthrough by recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.
With his recent return to office in January, the administration appears focused on establishing a clear roadmap to finally address this intricate territorial issue that has been politically fueled rather than historically justified.
In an April statement, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed the country’s strong support for Morocco’s claim to the territory, emphasizing that Rabat’s Autonomy Proposal is the only realistic path forward to end the protracted conflict.
Washington has also hinted at reviewing and potentially cutting funding for several United Nations missions, including the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).
Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, urged the U.S. to cease funding for MINURSO in a pointed op-ed.
He criticized the mission as ineffective, suggesting that it unnecessarily prolongs tensions, while labeling the Algerian-backed Polisario Front as a Marxist group that exploits hostages in Tindouf camps to obstruct Sahrawi return to Morocco.
Rubin’s remarks underline the notion that the continued financial support for the UN’s mission adds to the legitimacy of the Polisario Front and perpetuates the dispute.
The urgency for Algeria and the Polisario Front to join negotiations based on Morocco’s autonomy proposal is emphasized in the Instituto Coordenadas report.
It suggests that the United States is employing pressure tactics on Algiers, including calls for disarmament of the Polisario and dismantling of the Tindouf camps, to encourage all parties to come together to broker a deal.
The analysis indicates that Algeria could face unprecedented pressure to align with U.S. expectations, leaving it with limited options.
Failure to cooperate might result in serious repercussions, including increased diplomatic isolation, potential legal troubles due to its support of the separatist movement, and possible secondary sanctions on of Algerian entities linked to the Polisario.
The report warns that ceasing support for the Polisario, after decades of commitment, would be seen in Algeria as a significant retreat by a considerable segment of its political establishment.
Another element of U.S. strategy includes the possible designation of the Polisario Front as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO), adding another lever of influence.
An earlier piece from the Hudson Institute presented compelling legal points suggesting that the Polisario satisfies the criteria for such designation under U.S. law.
Omar Hilale, Morocco’s ambassador to the UN, highlighted in an April interview that the United States is keen on resolving the Western Sahara issue and hopes to celebrate its resolution coinciding with the 50th anniversary of the Green March on November 6, a significant date for Morocco.
The current global environment, as Hilale described it, is marked by unprecedented international support for Morocco, with over 110 nations backing Rabat’s stance.
The analysis from Instituto Coordenadas notes that the Trump administration views Morocco as a vital partner in its broader strategy for stabilizing the Sahel region, which faces numerous security challenges.
The urgency to resolve the Western Sahara conflict is linked not only to regional stability but also to influential economic interests.
The ongoing dispute disrupts access to crucial mineral resources such as uranium, gold, and rare earth materials, which are essential for global supply chains.
The report also highlights that the U.S. recognizes Africa’s significant economic potential, forecasting that this continent will see extensive growth in the coming years.
Additionally, the White House seeks to create new frameworks for relations with regional countries that prioritize security, stability, and economic partnerships.
The synthesis of these factors—political deadlines, the ambition to reinforce Morocco’s regional role, competition for resources, and deterring rival powers—explains the U.S. urgency to pen a resolution to the Sahara predicament.
Recent statements from Secretary Rubio have challenged Algeria’s persistent narrative regarding the conflict, solidifying U.S. support for Morocco.
This clear reaffirmation has undermined Algeria’s efforts to revive its decades-long strategy of division between Morocco and the Polisario Front.
As international support for Morocco’s position grows stronger, there are increasing calls to designate the Polisario Front as a terrorist organization.
Various articles have noted past terrorist actions conducted by the Polisario, aimed at creating narratives surrounding their legitimacy.
Republican Congressman Joe Wilson has also expressed intentions to introduce legislation to officially label the Polisario as a terrorist group, criticizing Algeria and Russia’s alleged usage of the separatist faction for strategic gains.
Similar sentiments have been voiced by former UK Secretary of State for Defense Liam Fox, who observed that the Polisario operates as an Iranian proxy organization.
As international dynamics shift in favor of Morocco, UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy for Western Sahara, Staffan de Mistura, suggested utilizing an upcoming strategic window to reinforce negotiations.
De Mistura acknowledged the current favorable climate as a chance to advance a political settlement, emphasizing the importance of fostering regional de-escalation.
The momentum generated looks to create an avenue for catalyzing a credible and renewed political process in the Western Sahara region.
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