Southern Michigan is currently experiencing a spell of extreme heat, with temperatures expected to remain high throughout the week.
However, the forecast for the upcoming months indicates a moderate likelihood of warmer-than-normal temperatures across the state.
This long-range forecast, which updates the outlook for July, August, and September, suggests that Michiganders should prepare for a summer marked by higher temperatures than those typically expected during this season.
Predicting temperature deviations from the average means that while some may argue that Michigan’s summer can feel hot regardless of average highs, the emphasis here is on significant warmth relative to what is considered normal for the state.
The latest updates from NOAA highlight this trend, showing that the models they rely on are converging towards warmer-than-normal temperatures for most of the United States.
Particularly, areas like the Northeast and South Florida are anticipating much higher than average temperatures.
NOAA issued this forecast on June 19, indicating that the agreement among various forecasting models lends credence to the expectations of above-normal temperatures through summer.
To put this into context, average highs during July and August generally range from 80 degrees in the northern parts of Michigan to about 83 degrees in the south.
As we move into September, a gradual cooling trend typically brings high temps back into the 70s by the end of the month.
Thus, warmer-than-normal forecasts could mean that we are likely to see frequent afternoon highs between 85 and 95 degrees, with 85 to 90 degrees being the most common range and occasional stretches reaching into the 90s.
The concern about rising temperatures is compounded by the anticipation of conditions that could create a hotter environment following the current heat wave in late June.
For those who prefer milder weather, this should act as a warning sign, particularly with regards to the increased humidity expected to accompany the heat.
Fortunately, meteorologists predict that an extreme heat wave isn’t imminent; rather, sporadic days approaching 90 degrees are more likely in early July.
When it comes to precipitation, the forecast lacks a definitive pattern, suggesting that broad and unusual rainy conditions are not anticipated in Michigan anytime soon.
Interestingly, while drier-than-normal conditions are expected to the west of Michigan, the southeast region is projected to experience wetter-than-normal weather.
Nevertheless, localized heavy rainfall is certainly a possibility; the interaction of this hot air mass situated just south of the state can create conditions favorable for intense thunderstorms that could lead to sudden downpours.
An example of this occurred recently when some areas saw over four inches of rain during a series of thunderstorms on Saturday morning.
As we look ahead, there is no indication that Michigan will return to the cool, overcast, and often rainy patterns that characterized May.
Overall, the forecast signals a summer filled with the familiar warmth of Michigan weather over the next three months.
Residents are encouraged to embrace summer activities, whether it be immersing themselves in a lake, relaxing by a pool, or enjoying the beach.
image source from：mlive
