In a thought-provoking exploration of modern geopolitical challenges, political economist Benjamin Cohen raises alarms over the potential for national fragmentation.
His new book, titled ‘Dream States: A Lurking Nightmare for the World Order’ (Oxford University Press, 2025), assesses the current landscape of secession movements globally and the implications they hold for societal stability.
Cohen opens with a fictional scenario set in 2035, where California, disgruntled with federal policies, declares its independence.
In this speculative narrative, President Vance threatens military action against the state government, a grim reflection of escalating tensions that seem increasingly plausible in today’s divisive political climate.
As the former professor of international political economy at the University of California, Santa Barbara, Cohen is acutely aware of the risks posed by intensifying political dissatisfaction.
“In today’s landscape, the divisions run deeper than mere partisan divides; they are often a stark contrast between urban and rural populations,” he explains.
Cohen expresses concern that these fissures could lead to increased conflict, even suggesting that the odds of a civil war, while not inevitable, are distressingly non-negligible.
In ‘Dream States’, Cohen meticulously investigates the complexities surrounding identity and governance across different regions, highlighting how these factors fuel secessionist sentiments.
He suggests that the tendency to view borders simply as lines on a map overlooks the subtleties of human preference and belonging within those states.
“Many individuals feel disenchanted with their political arrangements and would like to redraw the boundaries,” he argues, asserting that some may even be prepared to take up arms to effect these changes.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine serves as a poignant illustration of these dynamics.
Cohen emphasizes that the struggle for Ukrainian independence from Russia is deeply rooted in historical disputes and a strong national identity.
“This is not a matter that will end with the current conflict,” Cohen cautions.
In contrast, nations like Canada have managed to accommodate distinct communities such as Quebec through granting significant autonomy, which enables them to maintain their identity—an approach Cohen identifies as crucial in mitigating tensions.
Examples from the UK and Spain reveal similar strategies that have, thus far, averted violent outcomes.
However, Cohen warns that such compromises seem increasingly elusive in patches of the world that are currently embroiled in conflict or tension.
Most notably, he flags Taiwan as a flashpoint where fragmentation could escalate into military confrontation.
“Taiwan has remained independent since World War II, but from China’s perspective, it is viewed as an integral part of the nation,” he notes.
Cohen perceives a high likelihood that China may eventually resort to force to assert its claims over Taiwan, as tensions continue to build in the Taiwan Strait.
“They are encircling the island as part of a calculated strategy that could culminate in an embargo, restricting the movement of goods and people.
At some juncture, Taiwan might feel compelled to respond militarily, leading to grave consequences,” he warns.
The current state of international trade also presents critical challenges, as Cohen cites unprecedented disorder reminiscent of the post-World War I era.
This chaotic environment raises questions about the longevity of conventional economic relationships and the stability of global markets.
Yet, Cohen asserts that decisions in these realms are often governed by more than mere economic logic.
A profound sense of identity emerges as a core driver of these movements, often overshadowing rational considerations.
“Identity is a compelling motivator and can cloud judgment, which is why I remain concerned about the possibility of civil unrest emerging from this tension,” he explains.
In his examination of these complex issues, Cohen hopes to spark a broader dialogue about the implications of discontent across various regions.
His insights call on scholars, policymakers, and the public to seriously consider the potential pathways toward more peaceful governance that respects the diverse identities within nations.
Only by addressing the roots of discontent and recognizing the importance of community identity can societies hope to prevent the specter of violence and fragmentation that looms in today’s world.
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