A recent analysis by the Pew Research Center indicates that Americans in their 20s and 30s are planning to have fewer children than they did a decade ago.
According to government data examined by the Center, the average number of children that men and women ages 20 to 39 plan to have has decreased from 2.3 in 2012 to 1.8 in 2023.
This trend marks a significant shift in the outlook for family size, especially considering that numbers remained stable from 2002 to 2012.
The decrease in planned family size comes amid growing national discussions about low birthrates in the United States, a topic that has garnered attention from policymakers and sociologists alike.
The Biden administration has been exploring various proposals aimed at encouraging higher birthrates among American women, highlighting the urgent nature of the issue.
The pronatalism movement, focused on promoting policies that increase the U.S. birthrate, has also received extensive media coverage in recent months.
In the year 2023, the total number of children that adults aged 20 to 39 intend to have fell below the replacement level of 2.1, signaling a potential long-term demographic challenge for the country.
Pew Research Center carried out this analysis as a part of its ongoing examination of family life trends in America.
To derive these figures, the Center utilized data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), collecting microdata files from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The NSFG collects data over multi-year periods, using midpoints to create an accurate representation of trends.
For instance, the midpoint years are defined as follows: 2008 represents data from 2006-2010, 2012 from 2011-2013, and so forth, leading up to 2023 for the period 2022-2023.
The total number of children adults plan to have combines both those already born and any additional children they anticipate.
Women in the survey were asked how many live births they had experienced, while men reported the number of children they had ever fathered.
It’s worth noting that adoption statistics are captured separately in the survey, excluding adopted children from the primary figures.
Men and women in committed relationships were queried on their intentions to have more children with their partners, while single respondents were asked about their plans for additional children.
The imputed variables for births and intended future children were available through the National Study of Family Growth, allowing for more in-depth analysis.
The significant declines in planned family size were concentrated in the last decade and varied by age and gender.
Between 2012 and 2023, the average number of children women intended to have decreased notably:
For women aged 20 to 24, the average fell from 2.3 to 1.5.
For those aged 25 to 29, it reduced from 2.3 to 1.9.
Women aged 30 to 34 saw a drop from 2.5 to 1.9.
Women in the 35 to 39 age range did not experience a significant reduction in planned family size.
Meanwhile, men reflected similar declining trends across all age brackets.
In 2023, the majority of age groups – with an exception for women aged 35 to 39 – reported intending to have fewer than 2.1 children.
Understanding the predictive power of these family planning intentions is crucial, as intentions often diverge from outcomes.
Historically, the plans for family size have remained relatively stable throughout a person’s early adulthood.
However, as individuals near the end of their reproductive years, there tends to be a gap between intention and reality, with actual birth rates usually falling short of initial aspirations.
For instance, women aged 20 to 24 in 2002 anticipated having 2.4 children on average.
When these same women transitioned to being aged 30 to 34 in 2012, their planned average increased slightly to 2.5.
However, by 2023, those women who were now between 40 and 44 had given birth to an average of only 1.9 children.
This highlights a recurring pattern; while short-term family planning may appear optimistic, actual outcomes often reflect more conservative family sizes.
Another significant finding from the study indicates educational disparities in planned family size among women.
In 2023, women with a four-year college education expressed intentions to have fewer children, averaging 1.7 planned children compared to 2.2 among those without a college degree.
Interestingly, there were no notable differences among men in terms of educational background.
While women aged 25 to 39 with and without a degree both reported declines in planned family size between 2002 and 2023, trends diverged for those aged 30 to 34.
The decline in intended family size for women in this specific age group was predominantly seen among those who hold bachelor’s degrees.
Specifically, women aged 30 to 34 with a college degree planned to have 1.5 children in 2023, a decrease from 2.1 in 2002.
Conversely, those without a degree showed negligible change in their family planning intentions.
The analysis did not only reflect changes in average planned family sizes but also in the proportion of adults intending to have children.
The 2023 statistics reveal that around 76% of men and 77% of women in their 20s and 30s have either had a child or plan to have at least one, a decrease from approximately 90% in 2012.
Notably, the decline was most striking among women aged 20 to 24, with only 66% indicating plans for children in 2023, down from 93% in 2012 and 94% in 2002.
Men in the same age bracket demonstrated smaller declines, falling from 89% in 2012 to 75% in 2023.
Similar trends were observed across other age classifications for both genders.
In a survey conducted in 2024, Americans were asked their thoughts on the implications of a declining birthrate and federal policies that might encourage greater family growth.
While nearly half of U.S. adults (47%) expressed concern about the negative impact of fewer children on the country’s future, only 20% viewed it positively.
A significant portion (31%) felt that it neither had a definitive positive nor negative effect.
When prompted about potential federal policies to incentivize childbirth, 60% stated that offering free childcare would be extremely or very effective.
Additionally, around half supported policies like requiring paid family leave (51%) and enhancing tax credits for parents (49%).
Furthermore, 45% believed that providing monthly payments for parents of minor children would be an effective measure to encourage higher birth rates.
In conclusion, the data indicates a noteworthy shift in family planning among young Americans, characterized by a decline in the desired number of children across various age and educational groups.
This trend poses important questions for policymakers and society as a whole regarding the implications of lower birth rates for future generations.
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