The campaign to support District 4 Supervisor Joel Engardio, known as “Stop the Recall, Stand with Joel Engardio,” has outpaced the financial backing for the recall effort against him, according to the latest campaign finance filings.
As of July 2, the recall campaign has raised approximately $161,000 in contributions, while the Stand With Joel campaign has garnered around $536,000, a figure that is three times the amount collected by the recall initiative.
However, campaign consultant Jim Ross, who has firsthand experience with recall efforts, suggests that the sheer amount of money may not significantly influence the outcome of this race. Ross previously worked to retain Chesa Boudin in office during a recall election in 2022 but was unsuccessful.
He points out that Engardio is faced with tough odds, having been elected to lead District 4 in 2022 by a mere 469 votes. This slim margin becomes even more critical in a recall election where voter turnout is uncertain. Furthermore, his constituents largely opposed Prop. K, the initiative that has sparked the recall campaign.
To counter the recall, Engardio will need to be present and visible in the community. Ross emphasizes that engaging directly with constituents through door-to-door campaigning will be vital for Engardio, despite financial resources allowing for mailers and advertisements in local Chinese newspapers.
Ross states, “The money in this race is not as important as the people on the ground. He really needs to convince folks that Prop. K is not something he needs to be recalled about.”
Engardio’s campaign has raised a substantial sum, but Ross believes that much of the effort will be focused on persuading voters through personal interaction rather than mass messaging. He asserts that half a million dollars is adequate to effectively communicate an anti-recall sentiment but stresses the importance of strong grassroots support.
As the recall election approaches on September 16, both campaigns continue to expend their resources heavily. Engardio’s constituency consists of about 50,000 registered voters, and with Ross estimating that around 20,000 are likely to participate in the election, voter turnout will be crucial.
The recall effort was initiated after Engardio’s support for Prop. K, which closed the Upper Great Highway and transformed it into Sunset Dunes park. While 55 percent of the city supported the measure, a significant 64 percent of Sunset residents opposed it.
The precincts that previously favored Engardio in his election campaign are now some of the same areas where opposition to Prop. K is strongest, raising questions about his viability in the upcoming recall vote.
“The math in this race has always been a little challenging for him,” Ross commented.
Engardio now has to navigate a complex political landscape where voters he once counted as supporters may turn against him due to Prop. K. However, there is a possibility that some residents who initially opposed him may now see value in Sunset Dunes and its features, potentially altering the dynamics of their support.
Despite this potential upside, Engardio’s habit of emphasizing his backing of Prop. K in the most opposition-leaning neighborhoods might not be the best tactical decision, according to Ross.
In terms of campaign donations, the recall initiative, while smaller in total funds raised, has seen a broader base of contributors. The recall effort has attracted 316 individuals who donated over $100 as of July 1, compared to the 163 donors for Engardio’s campaign. Most contributions to the recall were under $1,000, showing a grassroots support structure.
The Stand With Joel campaign has attracted significant financial support from notable figures, including tech CEOs and various interest groups. The largest single contributor, Yelp CEO Jeremy Stoppelman, donated a total of $175,000 across five separate donations.
Other notable donors include John Wolthuis of Twilio and Chris Larsen of Ripple, each contributing $100,000. Additionally, the San Francisco Police Officers Association PAC and the Teamsters labor union have also provided financial backing to Engardio’s campaign.
However, by the end of June, both campaigns were running low on cash. The recall campaign has spent around $230,000, leaving it with about $22,854 in the bank, while the Stand With Joel campaign has spent nearly $440,000 with a remaining balance of $38,522.
Consulting and staffing accounted for the majority of expenditures in both cases as they prepare for the approaching election.
Despite their fundraising woes, the recall campaign maintains that it represents a grassroots movement, contrasting itself against Engardio’s backing from wealthy donors.
Albert Chow, a key supporter of the recall, emphasized their campaign’s local support, stating, “We don’t have big money donors. We are all local Sunset folks.”
Joe Arellano, spokesperson for the Stand with Joel campaign, countered this narrative, asserting that their financial resources are crucial for engaging voters effectively.
He said the funds are necessary to ensure Joel’s re-election and combat the recall, adding, “We are proud of the support we’ve received from people supporting our public parks, public safety and public education. These are the issues Joel fought for when he ran for office.”
The outcome of the September vote remains uncertain as both campaigns navigate the complexities of public sentiment and financial backing in District 4.
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