The geopolitical saga that began during Donald Trump’s presidency may be entering a critical phase as the United States silently prepares to ease sanctions on Turkey. This potential shift could reopen the possibility for Ankara’s return to the F-35 fighter jet program, which was stymied by sanctions imposed in 2017 under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). Turkey’s removal from the F-35 program came in 2020 after it purchased Russian S-400 missile systems, igniting a tumultuous relationship between Washington and Ankara.
According to various sources in Washington, the Trump administration has initiated efforts to lay the groundwork for relaxing these restrictions. Geopolitical strategist John Sitilides from Trilogy Advisors LLC has elaborated on the arguments being made by Ankara and its representatives in a bid to persuade the administration to lift or lessen the sanctions.
Sitilides notes that Ankara’s case will largely hinge on its pivotal role in crucial foreign policy and national security issues that concern the Trump administration. From conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine to interests in South Asia and Africa, Turkey’s active military footprint in regions like Somalia and Libya underscores its significance to U.S. objectives.
Ankara’s stance is that removing or relaxing sanctions could transform Turkey into a more cooperative and effective partner in addressing these global challenges. While no formal announcement has been made regarding the sanctions, U.S. officials are reportedly conducting preliminary work to unwind them, signaling that the CAATSA framework might not be permanent. However, even if sanctions are ultimately lifted, Turkey’s journey back to the F-35 program faces significant hurdles.
It is important to highlight that U.S. officials have made it clear that Ankara will not be reinstated into the F-35 production consortium, a position it once occupied prior to being expelled. Turkey could potentially receive only six F-35 aircraft already purchased but currently held in U.S. custody, which would require additional technical work before becoming operational.
Any further sale of F-35s would hinge on a new Foreign Military Sales (FMS) request to Congress, where bipartisan opposition against Turkey remains strong. Concerns raised by lawmakers from both parties revolve around Turkey’s regional posturing and its indecision about finalizing a separate deal for F-16 fighter jets. One congressional aide indicated that it is challenging to advance a new FMS program for F-35s while the F-16 deal is still unresolved.
While Congress plays a crucial role in both sanctions policy and foreign military sales, the President holds significant authority in these matters. Though lawmakers can delay transfers or express opposition to lifting sanctions, they cannot permanently obstruct them without achieving a supermajority to override a presidential veto. President Biden’s administration has shown a tendency to consider bipartisan sentiment and seek consensus prior to moving forward with major FMS transactions. In contrast, Trump’s approach tends to be less restrained, as evidenced by his use of an emergency national security waiver to bypass bipartisan objections to arms sales to Saudi Arabia in 2019.
As these developments unfold, Greece and Israel continue to engage lawmakers in the U.S. to assert their concerns about Turkey’s rearmament. Previously, Israeli officials had avoided political maneuvering to counter Turkey but shifted their stance following the Syrian regime’s collapse, which heightened Turkey’s military modernization stakes.
Greek officials, often collaborating with Israeli diplomats, have warned American legislators and administration representatives that enhancing Turkey’s military capabilities—especially with advanced systems like the F-35—could destabilize the eastern Mediterranean and jeopardize U.S. interests. This concerns Congress more than the executive branch, where officials reportedly hold a more favorable view of a modernized Turkish air force.
Nevertheless, the Biden administration has made efforts to reassure Greece. Although Greece does not enjoy the same legal assurances as Israel, which has a qualitative military edge guaranteed under U.S. law, informal promises have been made to help preserve Greek defense capabilities. Reports suggest that President Biden personally pledged such reassurances to influential Greek-American cleric Father Alexander Karloutsos during a private Oval Office meeting after he received the Presidential Medal of Freedom.
During that meeting, Biden outlined that while Turkey would receive F-16s to maintain its operational air force, Greece would be preserved through its F-35 program. Similar commitments were conveyed by senior officials, such as former Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland during her 2022 visit to Athens, where she engaged with Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his cabinet. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also extended U.S. support via a letter to the Greek prime minister, promising surplus defense equipment through the Excess Defense Articles (EDA) program. However, fulfillment of these promises has faced logistical and financial challenges, causing delays in the delivery of critical systems like two C-130 aircraft that ultimately required prohibitively expensive refurbishments.
The Greek and Greek-American lobby have become increasingly adept at navigating Washington’s political landscape, drawing from lessons learned through the Israeli model of bipartisan congressional engagement. This strategy has become more pronounced in recent years, mirroring the shift experienced by Israeli leadership away from relying solely on the executive branch towards a broader engagement of Congress.
However, in either Trump’s current administration or a potential second term, this refined approach might not be as effective. According to a congressional staffer, the ability of Congress to provide a counterbalance in the current political climate of Trump’s Washington is significantly diminished.
Ultimately, the future of U.S.-Turkey defense relations appears to hinge more on the political dynamics shaped within the White House than on a unified or bipartisan consensus emerging from Capitol Hill.
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