San Diego is currently witnessing a noteworthy and welcomed triple impact: increased housing availability, improved rental rates, and a decrease in homelessness.
While it is tempting to conclude that the rise in housing availability and the drop in rents directly correlate with the reduction in homelessness, the relationship is more complex.
As with rising homelessness, various multifaceted factors are at play without offering definitive answers. However, the central theme of affordable housing continues to dominate discussions.
City officials have expressed frustration as years of investments totaling millions of dollars have seemingly failed to reverse the growing homeless rates.
The latest annual point-in-time homeless count, released last week, reveals promising news for San Diego. This accomplishment should be celebrated while maintaining cautious optimism, given that future challenges loom large.
These challenges include anticipated cuts in federal housing and homeless programs under a potentially shifting political administration, alongside broader economic uncertainty.
Highlights from the recent count indicate a 6.5 percent reduction in the unsheltered homeless population countywide, coupled with a 7 percent drop in those experiencing homelessness while sheltered.
Particularly notable is the decline in homelessness rates among veterans, young individuals, and families, marking significant progress in these demographics.
Critics argue that the unsheltered count would likely be even lower if the federal government permitted the inclusion of individuals residing in sanctioned safe sleeping locations and vehicle lots, which offer some level of security and basic services comparable to traditional shelters.
Despite an uptick in homelessness recorded in the previous year, the latest statistics suggest a possible turning point in the city’s combat against homelessness.
Tamera Kohler, who leads the Regional Task Force on Homelessness, pointed out several contributing factors to this optimistic trend.
Among these, a stable rental market, enhanced shelter options, increased investment in mental health and substance abuse services, alongside proactive programs to prevent homelessness, have all played vital roles.
In recent months, San Diego County has experienced a wave of new apartment construction that has resulted in flattening or even reducing rental prices in some neighborhoods, according to a report by the Union-Tribune.
Over 4,000 new apartment units are slated to open this year, and the current vacancy rate of 5.1 percent remains healthy enough to alleviate upward pressure on rental prices.
Although still considered expensive in comparison to numerous other regions, central neighborhoods near Balboa Park — identified as less expensive in the Union-Tribune’s coverage — reported an average monthly rent of $1,997, showing a minimal decrease of 0.1 percent from the prior year.
Research from the Pew Charitable Trust and others firmly links the relationship between rising rents and increased homelessness in metropolitan areas across the United States.
Pew noted in a recent study that locales experiencing steady rent growth have concurrently faced increases in homelessness, while areas with slow rent growth have enjoyed reductions in their homeless populations.
Crucially, narrowing the gap between rental prices and income levels is seen as essential in preventing homelessness. A robust local job market may also have positively impacted declining homelessness figures in San Diego.
Nevertheless, despite the apartment construction boom, consistent availability of affordable housing remains a significant challenge for the local market.
Although various jurisdictions mandate that a portion of housing projects reserve units for low-income residents, the overall supply has not met the demand.
This positive trend, however, might not last long. Historically, when rent prices level off or decline, the profitability of apartment developments tends to decrease, leading developers to pull back.
Similar situations have happened in cities like Minneapolis, where upzoning led to increased multi-family housing and lower rents, causing some builders to abandon projects.
Moreover, Nathan Moeder, an analyst with London Moeder Advisors, indicated that rising interest rates and construction costs have also prompted some developers to withdraw from ongoing apartment projects in San Diego.
While there has been a rise in overall housing permits in recent years, shifts in market dynamics could temper that trend in the near future.
Market conditions alone will not suffice. A comprehensive approach including increased subsidies, better financing support, and enhanced incentives will be critical to ensure housing remains affordable.
Experts warn that the metrics from the homeless count may understate the reality, as there is almost certainly an undercount involved.
Despite the observed decrease, many emphasize that the demand for homeless services is increasing, with the number of individuals becoming homeless consistently outpacing those who gain stable housing on a regular basis.
While some proponents of public camping bans credit the decline in homelessness to these policies, questions remain about the whereabouts of those displaced. Shelters remain at full capacity, with many individuals seeking assistance denied due to lack of resources.
Additionally, the count likely overlooks individuals living in unstable housing situations, such as couch surfing or staying in motels.
Compounding these issues are the troubling statistics regarding the unhoused population’s mortality rate in San Diego County. Last year there were 495 recorded deaths among the homeless, but previous years have shown a steady rise, escalating to 2,616 deaths in 2024, according to the San Diego County Medical Examiner.
While it remains impossible to determine if housing could have prevented some of these deaths, one fact stands out clearly: while affordable housing is not the singular solution to homelessness, it undoubtedly plays a crucial role in addressing this social issue.
image source from：https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2025/05/25/kudos-and-caveats-on-drop-in-san-diego-homeless-count/
