The recent cease-fire between the United States and the Tehran-supported Houthi militia in Yemen, effective since May 6, has significantly shifted the balance of power within the war-torn nation, simultaneously solidifying the existing status quo of the civil war.
This development comes on the heels of a 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran, which poses a potential to disrupt this status quo once more.
However, the fragmented coalition opposing the Houthis is unlikely to capitalize on this opportunity due to internal disunity and diminished support.
Last month marked a pivotal cessation of the high-intensity US air campaign against the Houthis, known as Operation Rough Rider, a halt that has granted the Houthis crucial time to recover from infrastructure damage and reorganize their forces.
While the cessation may bolster the Houthis, it undermines the internationally recognized Yemeni government, particularly affecting the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which operates under the central government umbrella but harbors separatist aspirations.
The STC has struggled with increasing public discontent in major southern cities like Aden, as economic conditions continue to deteriorate.
Competing factions backed by Saudi Arabia are also challenging the STC’s influence, especially in the strategic Hadramout Governorate.
For the United States, this new landscape presents an unsatisfactory scenario regarding its security and maritime interests.
While the cease-fire has favored the Houthis in the short term, it also fosters divisions among different power centers within Yemen, a fragmentation that weakens any unified opposition to the Iran-backed group.
Following the Israel-Iran conflict, there is a concern that the Houthis may face diminished support from Tehran, which could pressure them to seek new avenues for weapons supplies.
This situation could create a fleeting opportunity for anti-Houthi forces to reclaim territory, albeit complicated by their current fragmentation and the absence of external air support.
The Houthis, who represent a Zaydi Shi’a movement controlling much of northwestern Yemen, have the advantage of focusing on three key areas due to the cease-fire.
First, they can repair vital port and airport infrastructures damaged by previous airstrikes, enabling a resumption of revenue and troop reorganization.
Second, the Houthis can promote a narrative of triumph over the US, similar to their strategy against Saudi Arabia during its prior military intervention, thereby fostering internal recruitment.
United Nations estimates suggest that Houthi fighters surged from approximately 220,000 in 2022 to around 350,000 in 2024, driven by a recruitment campaign leveraging recent regional conflicts.
Third, the cease-fire allows the Houthis to deepen their strategy of diversifying alliances beyond Iran, as attacks on ships in the Red Sea have increased their visibility and appeal to various anti-Western factions.
Despite their enhanced recruitment, the Houthis are now likely to contend with reduced supplies of weapons and fuel from Iran due to the damage inflicted by the Israel-Iran war.
Although they have some ability to assemble indigenous weapons, their reliance on smuggled components complicates their capacity to sustain military operations independently.
On the other hand, the internationally recognized Yemeni government, positioned in Aden and led by the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), stands to incur significant losses in this continuing conflict.
The power balance has increasingly exacerbated internal divisions, as the economic crisis intensifies under the Houthis’ continued blockade of crude oil exports from government-held territories.
This situation has led to substantial revenue losses, significantly hampering the government’s ability to provide public salaries and essential services, sparking widespread worker protests.
The repercussions of this economic downturn have resulted in swirling discontent, underscoring the government’s inefficacy amid ongoing corruption and power struggles among its officials.
In particular, the STC, aligned with Emirati forces, faces erosions in power due to both internal challenges and external pressures.
Although it remains integrated into the formal government after the 2019 Riyadh Agreement, it continues to pursue a separatist agenda while facing a decline in its revenue streams from strategically significant ports in the south.
The STC’s past strategies of enriching their own governance approach through sanctioned revenue channels have backfired as the Houthis’ blockade intensifies.
As a result, widespread protests have erupted in southern cities such as Aden, with significant displays of public discontent arising over electricity shortages exacerbated by the economic crisis.
In an increasingly repressive environment, any attempt to publicly address grievances has led to governmental crackdowns, thus complicating the STC’s position amid declining support.
Simultaneously, Saudi-backed forces are taking advantage of the situation, aiming to expand their influence as the STC’s hold begins to falter.
The cessation of the US-Houthi ground offensive has allowed local groups loyal to Saudi interests to position themselves strategically, countering the anti-Houthi efforts of the Emirati-backed STC.
Riyadh’s renewed focus on cultivating relationships with local tribal leaders and political figures aims to create a network of influence both within Yemen and across its borders, creating a more unified southern front against the STC’s separatist aims.
Amid escalating tensions and upheavals within the STC and the broader government structure, the geopolitical dynamics surrounding Yemen continue to evolve, posing significant threats to unity and stability in the region.
As the Houthis consolidate their power with this perceived victory over the US, the challenges faced by the Yemeni government, the STC, and pro-Saudi factions highlight an increasingly precarious situation.
Although the US-Houthi cease-fire has temporarily cemented existing power balances, it raises questions about future military actions and the potential for a coordinated offensive against Houthi militants.
In conclusion, the landscape of Yemen is marked by a relentless struggle for power amid humanitarian crises, escalating protests, and fears of insecurity fueled by internal rivalries.
Each faction’s strategies, responses, and alignments will influence not just national dynamics, but regional security interests and the broader geopolitical equations involving key players such as the US, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.
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