Congressional Republicans have successfully passed a domestic policy bill that brings sweeping changes to various entitlement programs, including Medicaid and SNAP, while also increasing funding for immigration enforcement and cutting environmental program funding.
The legislation is now on President Donald Trump’s desk for his signature.
A key provision in the bill aims to make the tax cuts from President Trump’s 2017 tax reform permanent, although independent reports indicate that these tax breaks primarily benefit wealthy Americans.
The Trump administration, however, claims that low- and middle-income families will continue to save approximately $10,000 annually if the cuts are extended.
According to the Yale Budget Lab, this legislation is expected to raise the federal deficit by a staggering $3 trillion over the next decade.
For Oregon, the implications of this bill are particularly significant.
Analysis of an earlier version of the bill highlighted that the state would be disproportionately affected by cuts to Medicaid, likely leading to more individuals losing coverage and becoming uninsured.
The Senate’s bill version also proposes cuts to timber county funding and could reshape higher education funding, including how Oregon students repay their student loans.
The following are five ways this legislation will impact Oregonians:
### Significant Changes to the Oregon Health Plan
One of the bill’s most substantial impacts concerns changes to how states, including Oregon, administer and fund their Medicaid programs, specifically through new eligibility requirements.
Under the proposed changes, adults ages 19 to 64 will need to demonstrate they are employed or volunteering for at least 80 hours a month to either enroll in Medicaid or retain their existing coverage.
Exemptions are made for certain groups, such as parents of children under 14 and individuals with specific disabilities or medical conditions.
Roughly 40% of Oregon Health Plan members will face new eligibility checks that are enforced more frequently, potentially leading to significant coverage losses.
State health authorities estimate that between 150,000 to 200,000 Oregonians may lose Medicaid coverage due to these requirements.
The new rules will also require the state to spend over $100 million on implementing more frequent eligibility checks, necessitating updates in technology and the hiring of new administrative staff.
These work requirements are set to take effect by December 31, 2026, although states can request a two-year delay if they find it challenging to comply by then.
### Restrictions on Medicaid Funding
The legislation introduces new limitations on how states like Oregon can fund their Medicaid programs through local taxes.
As a result, experts predict Oregon could lose an estimated $11.7 billion in federal and state revenue over the next ten years.
Traditionally, states have been allowed to tax Medicaid providers, such as hospitals, to fund their programs, as long as those taxes do not exceed 6% of patient revenue to avoid federal scrutiny.
Under the new bill, however, this cap would gradually decrease to a maximum of 3.5%. The Oregon Health Authority has calculated that Oregon will lose substantial funding, with projected losses of $872 million for the 2027-29 biennium, $1.94 billion from 2029-31, and $8.86 billion between 2031 and 2035, once the reduction in the provider tax is fully implemented.
This loss of funding will make it exceedingly difficult for state legislators to replace the revenue through general funds or other local sources and may necessitate cuts to Medicaid rolls or benefits.
### Planned Parenthood Funding Ban
Another notable aspect of this legislation is its one-year ban on state Medicaid funding to Planned Parenthood and certain healthcare nonprofits that provide abortion services.
While federal funds cannot be used for abortion under current laws, Planned Parenthood relies on Medicaid for a significant portion of other healthcare services provided to low-income individuals.
Approximately 70% of patients at Planned Parenthood Columbia Willamette receive services like pap smears and STI testing through Medicaid.
This funding ban is expected to severely impact the financial stability of Planned Parenthood, with the possibility that some clinics may have to close as a direct result.
### Increased Marketplace Insurance Costs
Despite the numerous provisions included in the bill, it notably does not extend tax credits that help Americans afford health insurance in the marketplace via the Affordable Care Act.
Currently, several subsidies for marketplace plans are set to expire at the end of 2025.
Officials from the Oregon Health Authority stated that if Congress fails to renew these credits, Oregon residents purchasing health insurance could see an average annual cost increase of $960.
This financial burden could lead many individuals to forgo their health coverage altogether.
### Cuts to Food Assistance Programs
The budget bill introduces significant reductions in federal financial aid allocated for SNAP, jeopardizing food assistance for Oregonians.
This development is likely to raise serious concerns about the potential cuts in food assistance programs at the state level in coming years.
The legislation shifts the burden of funding the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), moving from the federal government fully covering costs to many states assuming some of the expenses.
In Oregon, where one in six residents receives SNAP benefits monthly, the financial implications are particularly acute.
Due to a high SNAP error rate of 14.06%, Oregon will require to cover 15% of the state’s SNAP costs under the new scheme.
A last-minute amendment, facilitated by Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, allows high-error rate states like Oregon to postpone the cost-sharing requirement by one year.
According to the Oregon Department of Human Services, the new funding structure will contribute to an additional $425 million in costs each year starting in 2028.
These financial adjustments paired with the other provisions in the bill may force the state to either find ways to cover these rising costs, reduce benefits, or potentially eliminate SNAP altogether.
Oregon DHS officials have warned that “the proposed cuts threaten to take food off the table for Oregonians, place unsustainable financial burdens on the State, and risk the well-being of families and local economies.” They highlighted the risk of leaving tens of thousands of residents without food and creating inequities among states, undermining the core intention of a national food assistance program.
These federal cuts come shortly after Oregon lawmakers failed to pass several significant bills intended to combat hunger during the legislative session, in part due to budget uncertainties stemming from anticipated federal reductions.
### Decreased Funding for Climate Change Initiatives
The bill jeopardizes approximately $200 million in federal support that Oregon was poised to receive to combat climate change as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, a cornerstone of President Biden’s domestic policy agenda.
The Republican-backed legislation seeks to minimize the federal government’s role in addressing climate change, including terminating tax credits for electric vehicle purchases and home energy efficiency upgrades, as well as restricting industry emissions reductions programs.
Tracking greenhouse gas emissions will also become more challenging, as the bill rescinds funding designated for greenhouse gas reporting initiatives.
Furthermore, renewable energy projects that fall under the Inflation Reduction Act may face penalties due to funding restrictions on anything not finished by 2027.
For instance, U.S. Representative Maxine Dexter expressed concerns that entities completing renewable energy projects by 2028 could lose access to crucial subsidies.
As described by Lindsey Scholten, political director at the Oregon League of Conservation Voters, this legislation represents “the most anti-environment and anti-climate bill in history.”
### Impact on Higher Education Financial Assistance
The bill also initiates critical modifications to Pell Grants, which serve as the federal government’s primary financial aid source for low-income college students.
It allocates an additional $10.5 billion to the program while expanding Pell Grant eligibility to individuals in short-term job training programs.
Nonetheless, the legislation simultaneously abolishes the Grad PLUS loan program, which previously allowed students to borrow money to fund their graduate studies, including living expenses.
Last year, over 400 graduate students at Portland State University utilized this loan, accounting for more than 8% of the total enrolled graduate student population there.
Additionally, the bill targets federal protections for student loan borrowers, limiting their ability to pause payments due to unemployment or financial hardship and eliminating a Biden-era initiative aimed at making repayment more manageable and affordable.
### Changes to Public Lands and Timber Management
Lastly, the bill has significant consequences for public lands and timber management in Oregon, allowing for increased logging while reducing timber funds for local communities and limiting support for private forest owners.
This legislation requires the U.S. Forest Service to ramp up logging activities by 75% over the next decade, though it remains uncertain if this goal is feasible, especially considering the Forest Service has fallen short of its timber targets for over a decade.
In addition, Oregon counties dependent on timber revenues for essential services like education and infrastructure will not receive their traditional share of timber receipt revenues under the new legislation.
Representative Val Hoyle criticized the bill for harming rural communities, stating, “They are removing timber receipt sharing, so that timber receipts go back to the Treasury and they are not going to schools.”
Moreover, the bill introduces new fees for solar and wind initiatives carried out on federal lands, coupled with fresh taxes on energy produced from these projects, which could complicate the development of green energy projects.
It also cuts up to $150 million in funding aimed at protecting old-growth and mature forests while directing $400 million from programs designed to aid private forest owners in combating climate change.
Overall, the bipartisan legislation passed by congressional Republicans poses substantial challenges for Oregonians across multiple facets of life, impacting healthcare, education, food security, climate initiatives, and more.
The ramifications of these changes will necessitate careful consideration and advocacy as Congress moves forward.
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