John McCann and Kevin Faulconer, both prominent Republicans, faced significant challenges during their recent political races in San Diego, with their ties to President Donald Trump coming under intense scrutiny.
Both McCann, the former mayor of Chula Vista, and Faulconer, the former San Diego mayor, were elected in cities where Democrats had a pronounced advantage in voter registration.
They promoted a pro-business agenda and branded themselves as moderates, yet both lost recent races for county supervisor, facing relentless attacks over their associations with Trump.
Lorie Zapf, another Republican but without a mayoral background, encountered a similar fate.
With a more conservative stance compared to McCann and Faulconer, she was among the first notable local candidates to see her political aspirations affected by her support for Trump.
Zapf lost her re-election bid for the San Diego City Council in 2018 after opponents targeted her for backing Trump.
This history raises the question of whether Democratic candidates and their labor supporters might exploit the Trump connection in upcoming local contests for Congress, state Senate, and another supervisor seat.
The answer is not straightforward, as it hinges on numerous factors.
While Trump’s influence was a common thread in the other candidates’ losses, various elements determined the election outcomes.
Political demographics played a crucial role in these races.
For instance, Terra Lawson-Remer, a Democratic supervisor, successfully won re-election against Faulconer in the heavily Democratic District 3.
Similarly, Imperial Beach Mayor Paloma Aguirre triumphed over McCann in a special election in District 1, which, despite its working-class and Latino demographic, leans more conservatively than its strong Democratic registration suggests.
Although Trump performed relatively better in those districts compared to the 2020 election, he still faced considerable defeat.
In contrast, voter registration in Zapf’s district shifted in favor of Democrats during her time on the council, contributing to her electoral challenges.
Faulconer and McCann had particular ties to Trump that rendered them more vulnerable than other local GOP candidates.
Faulconer had once openly stated in 2016 that he could never vote for Trump, but during his campaign for governor, he reversed his stance, claiming he had voted for Trump in 2020.
This flip-flopping was exploited by Lawson-Remer and her supporters, who highlighted a photo of Faulconer with Trump in the Oval Office across various campaign materials.
Meanwhile, McCann faced scrutiny for a letter he wrote to Trump seeking clemency for a convicted fraudster, who subsequently found himself back in legal trouble after his release.
Zapf had fewer direct ties to Trump, but her endorsement of him was enough for her opponents to incorporate his image in targeted mailers against her, alongside critiques of her positions on local issues.
Despite the fact that issues concerning Trump’s policies—such as healthcare funding cuts and immigration enforcement—did not overshadow other local matters during recent elections, they nonetheless remained significant in Aguirre’s campaign messaging.
Republicans attempted to pivot the dialogue to pressing local concerns, like budget deficits, homelessness, soaring housing costs, and gas taxes, which they attributed to Democratic leadership.
However, they increasingly find themselves on the defensive regarding Trump and the Republican majority’s actions in Congress.
Democratic and labor strategists are likely mapping out their strategies for next year’s key races, weighing how much emphasis to place on Trump in their campaigns.
The electoral landscape differs from previous races, with key contests this time being situated in districts that lack the Democratic registration advantages seen in the supervisorial Districts 1 and 3.
In the 40th state Senate District, being vacated by Minority Leader Brian Jones due to term limits, Republican candidates Ed Musgrove, a San Marcos City Councilmember, and former Assembly candidate Kristie Bruce-Lane have emerged, alongside Democrat Marni von Wilpert, the only major Democratic candidate so far.
This district encompasses portions of North County, East County, and part of the city of San Diego, with Democratic and Republican registration nearly equal, while many voters identify as independents.
In the previous election cycle, Kamala Harris secured a narrow victory over Trump in the district, though Biden’s win margin was significantly larger in 2020.
Meanwhile, the decision of Republican Supervisor Jim Desmond to step away from his North County District 5 seat leaves the landscape open for competition.
Desmond won re-election in a landslide in 2022, despite the district trending Democratic, reflecting a shift in voter sentiment with Harris outperforming Trump by over 13,800 votes there.
To date, Vista Mayor John Franklin and San Marcos Mayor Rebecca Jones are among the Republicans eyeing this district, while Kyle Krahel-Frolander is contemplating a run as a Democratic candidate.
Desmond is also challenging Democratic incumbent Mike Levin for a congressional seat straddling the San Diego-Orange County line.
Historically, Levin has adeptly leveraged Trump’s controversial policies to bolster his campaign in this competitive district, where Democrats have a slight registration edge, and voters have repeatedly rejected Trump across three elections.
Though Desmond initially projected a moderate, pro-business image as mayor, he has increasingly aligned himself with right-leaning policies since his tenure as supervisor, particularly in regards to immigration and COVID-19 regulations.
Despite Trump’s enhanced performance in California last year, flipping ten counties that previously voted for Biden, his overall results reflect a continued struggle for the GOP.
He garnered only about 38 percent of the vote, losing to Harris by over 20 points, even as Republicans managed to reclaim three seats in the state legislature.
However, this lackluster performance carried significant implications, as Republicans lost three U.S. House seats in California, leaving the party with a fragile majority heading into 2026—an off-year election cycle typically unfriendly to the party holding the presidency.
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