Central Texas faced a tragic flooding event over the Fourth of July weekend, resulting in over 80 fatalities, including several younger individuals from Houston who were at Camp Mystic.
The emotional toll of this disaster is felt deeply by family members and the community at large, with many experiencing profound grief and anger.
Matt and I, like countless others, watched the devastating scenes unfold with horror and sadness.
As a parent, the fear of losing a child is indescribable, and it’s hard to imagine the intense emotions residents and families impacted by this flood are experiencing.
In a recent analysis by Matt, the meteorological factors contributing to this catastrophic flooding were discussed.
The remnants of Tropical Storm Barry stalled over Central Texas, unleashing intense rainfall reminiscent of what Houston faced during Hurricane Harvey nearly eight years ago.
While the rain lasted less than it did in Harvey, the flooding was still catastrophic due to the region’s geographic features and rainfall intensity.
Despite concerns over cuts to the National Weather Service by the Trump Administration, it appears these did not significantly hinder the storm warnings issued prior to the flooding.
The relevant weather service offices were adequately staffed, and timely flash flood warnings were issued, despite some areas receiving rainfall that far exceeded expectations.
One of the major challenges faced by residents was the timing of the events; the severe flooding began after midnight on a holiday, in areas that were largely remote and, in some cases, lacked cellular service.
This meant that while warnings were issued, many did not see them or heed the advice in time.
Perfect forecasting is a challenge in extreme weather conditions, and the reality is that predictions cannot always foresee the magnitude of such events.
Some readers expressed disappointment that Space City Weather did not provide a warning on this storm.
It’s essential to clarify that Kerrville and the surrounding areas are outside of our primary forecasting region, which focuses on the Houston metro area and surrounding counties.
If the forecasts had indicated extreme weather early on the Fourth of July, we would have acted immediately to spread the word, regardless of distance.
With rain-free weather over the weekend in Houston, a shift in atmospheric conditions is now anticipated, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected across the region over the coming days.
On Monday, rain chances are forecasted to be around 50 percent or higher, particularly during the late morning and afternoon hours when storms are most likely to develop.
While these storms may vary in intensity, those that do form could deliver over an inch of rain in brief periods.
Temperatures will range from the low to mid-90s during the day and upper 70s at night.
Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to see heightened rainfall probabilities, likely surpassing 60 percent across most of the area, with localized heavy rainfall possible.
Some areas may receive between 1 to 2 inches of rain, though many parts of Houston will likely see less precipitation overall.
Daily chances for rain will likely help keep high temperatures around the lower 90s.
While we do not foresee significant flooding, it’s essential to remain vigilant as the situation develops.
As we look toward the latter part of the week, there’s no clear indication of when high pressure will return to the Houston area, which complicates the upcoming weekend forecast.
It could be as soon as Friday or Saturday, or it may be delayed further into next week, leading to uncertainty in predicting rain chances for the weekend.
Currently, a rough estimate suggests about a 30 percent likelihood of daily rain, but confidence in this number is low and adjustments may be necessary as the weekend approaches.
In the tropics, Tropical Storm Chantal has weakened to a depression along the eastern United States and is expected to dissipate shortly.
Other than this, tropical activity remains calm, aided by another plume of Saharan dust moving from Africa.
Consequently, the likelihood of tropical developments is low for at least the next week.
Currently, there are no emerging concerns that warrant immediate attention in the tropics.
image source from：spacecityweather
