In the wake of a 12-day conflict in June between Israel and Iran, the future of Iran’s leadership has come into sharp focus, particularly concerning Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
At 86 years old, Khamenei’s age and health have raised questions about potential successors, leading to intense speculation within and outside the country.
The last occasion Iran underwent a succession was in 1989, when Khamenei succeeded the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the prominent leader of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
According to Vali Nasr, an expert on Iran at Johns Hopkins University and author of “Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History,” the past four to five years in Iran have revolved around the leadership succession.
“Everything in Iran in the past four or five years has really been about succession,” he asserts.
In recent times, Khamenei has occasionally shared names of potential successors with the Assembly of Experts, a body of about 80 clerics responsible for selecting the next supreme leader.
However, the Assembly has largely functioned as a rubber stamp for Khamenei’s preferences.
After the recent conflict with Israel and the U.S. airstrikes on critical Iranian nuclear facilities, the urgency for a smooth transition of power has intensified.
“I think in the interest of preservation of the state and ensuring its continuity, [Khamenei] created contingency plans to make a transfer of power much more smooth and quick,” Nasr notes.
Speculation surrounding Khamenei’s successor includes hardliners like his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, 55, and Hassan Khomeini, 52, the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, alongside moderate former presidents like Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami.
Afshan Ostovar, an Iran expert at the Naval Postgraduate School, points out the potential drawbacks of naming a successor too soon.
“Khamenei is going to lose status because he’s going to have a successor,” Ostovar states, explaining that his successor will likely face political challenges and hostilities from the opposition.
He emphasizes the necessity for the next leader to be a cleric, as a non-clerical successor might threaten the foundational principles of the Islamic Republic.
“If you didn’t have a cleric succeeding Khamenei, you would no longer have an Islamic revolution. You no longer have an Islamic republic,” he warns.
However, Ali Vaez, who leads the Iran project at the International Crisis Group think tank, presents a different perspective.
He suggests the upcoming leader may not necessarily be a cleric, given the significant setbacks Iran has faced during Khamenei’s tenure, including economic challenges and the loss of key regional allies.
Vaez argues that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a powerful military entity, could see this moment as a chance to reshape Iran’s leadership.
“It is quite possible that Ayatollah Khamenei is the last supreme leader of Iran,” he states.
He contends it is challenging to envision the Islamic Revolutionary Guards continuing to endorse the clerical establishment after suffering losses due to Khamenei’s strategic missteps.
Looking ahead, the characteristics and qualifications needed for Khamenei’s successor remain crucial considerations.
Ostovar asserts that the next leader will need to be perceived as weak in the eyes of Iran’s powerful factions, including clerics and politicians.
“None of the institutions of power within the Islamic Republic already are going to want to just hand over the kingdom to somebody who’s going to become a dictator,” he explains.
Experts note that Khamenei himself was regarded as weak upon his succession, but he adeptly aligned with the IRGC, which has since become a dominant force in Iran’s governance.
Nasr elaborates on the IRGC’s influence, stating, “They control the media. They control vast areas of the economy. They are in decision-making circles in a way.”
With power brokers realizing that changes are necessary, there is a growing sentiment that Iran’s entrenched anti-Western stance may need reevaluation.
“There are powerful voices that are not saying we should tomorrow morning become absolute friends of the West,” Nasr reflects, noting a push for de-escalation with Western nations.
After de-escalation, he believes there can be a pathway towards normalization.
The manner of Khamenei’s death will likely affect the succession process as well.
Nasr posits that a natural death could lead to the selection of a moderate leader, whereas an assassination may prompt a more hardline cleric to assume power, ensuring continuity amid the turmoil.
As Khamenei’s health continues to be a topic of discussion, the political landscape in Iran remains uncertain, with succession looming as a pivotal issue for the Islamic Republic.
image source from：npr
