Turkey’s foreign policy regarding Iran and Israel reflects a complex balancing act, driven by national security interests that lead Ankara to eschew hostility with Tehran while opposing its nuclear ambitions.
In a recent statement issued on June 22, Turkey’s Foreign Ministry showed a notable shift in tone compared to its historical responses to U.S. military actions in the Middle East.
Instead of vocally criticizing the U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities, Ankara expressed “deep concern” while signaling its readiness to play a constructive role in regional stability.
This change in rhetoric may partly stem from the rapport between President Donald Trump and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, yet it raises questions about Ankara’s underlying strategic considerations regarding both Iran and Israel.
Turkey has a complex relationship with both nations, traditionally viewing them not as allies but as equal rivals, especially in the context of regional power dynamics.
Historically, Turkey and Iran have engaged in a long-standing rivalry dating back to the Ottoman and Persian Empires, which led them to seek a balance of power to avoid direct conflict.
Despite periods of hostility—such as their proxy war in Syria—Turkey maintains a cautious approach, recognizing that an imbalance of military power could destabilize its own regional standing.
Turkey perceives the potential of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons as a direct threat to its national security, undermining the three-century history of power equilibrium in the region.
Therefore, Ankara has generally shown support for international measures aimed at curtailing Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
However, a noteworthy development is that Turkey is likely to oppose significant military interventions by Israel against Iran, as these could provoke regional instability and unintended consequences for Turkish security.
Turkey’s historical recognition of Israel in 1949 did not prevent a decline in relations, especially in the Erdogan era, marked by anti-Israel rhetoric and policy shifts.
Turkish-Israeli relations deteriorated sharply after Erdogan openly supported Hamas and condemned Israel’s military actions, culminating in the blockade incident in 2010 that claimed Turkish lives.
In recent years, Israel’s robust military stance has further complicated bilateral ties, with Turkey feeling increasingly challenged by Israel’s military capabilities.
This perspective is compounded by Ankara’s concerns over the implications of a potential Iranian regime collapse under growing international pressure.
Turkey currently hosts nearly four million refugees and fears that military escalation could lead to new waves of displaced persons, reminiscent of the Syrian refugee crisis.
The stability of Iran is crucial for Turkey, which worries about the consequences of a power vacuum that could empower anti-Turkish groups, including the PKK’s Iranian affiliate, PJAK.
Ankara’s strategic calculus prioritizes a diplomatic rather than a military approach to Iran’s nuclear issue, demonstrating its willingness to participate in non-military measures such as sanctions and dialogue.
President Trump’s administration can leverage this willingness as potential support for its own initiatives concerning Iran.
In this context, the alignment between Trump and Erdogan presents an opportunity to navigate the fraught landscape of Iranian nuclear policy without tipping the balance toward regional instability.
Turkey’s preferences are firmly rooted in its historical experiences and security concerns, leading it to advocate for diplomatic solutions over military interventions.
While Turkey may support U.S. efforts to impose further economic sanctions on Iran, it remains resistant to military actions that could destabilize the Iranian state completely.
Achieving a united front against Iranian nuclear ambitions requires careful negotiation and reassurances from Washington regarding the ultimate goals of U.S. policy.
The foundational chemistry between Trump and Erdogan emphasizes a mutual understanding of the stakes involved and aligns their interests in avoiding Iranian collapse while curbing its nuclear aspirations.
As tensions mount, both U.S. and Turkish policymakers must navigate these complex relationships thoughtfully, ensuring that military actions do not precipitate a crisis or erode Turkey’s security further.
In summary, Turkey’s strategic interests necessitate a nuanced approach to Iran and Israel, balancing its historical rivalry with the need for stability in a volatile region.
By fostering diplomatic dialogue and avoiding military escalation, Turkey aims to secure its national interests without exacerbating tensions within the Middle East.
image source from：washingtoninstitute
