As a war expert part of a CIA panel, UC San Diego political scientist Barbara Walter has dedicated her career to forecasting civil wars in various countries. Through her research, she discovered that certain predictors she observed abroad could be applicable to the United States as well. In a recent conversation, Walter shared insights from her book, “How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them,” discussing the precarious state of American democracy and the potential for civil unrest.
Walter emphasizes that two primary factors can lead to civil war: anocracy and the political formation of parties based on identity rather than ideology.
Anocracy is characterized as a blend of democratic and authoritarian elements, where elections exist but are overshadowed by powerful leaders with minimal constraints on their authority.
Walter points out that the United States is currently in this troubling anocracy zone, having experienced a noticeable decline in democratic health since 2016. She notes that, while there was a slight improvement following the peaceful transfer of power in December 2020, the return of President Donald Trump to public prominence has coincided with intensified declines in democratic practices.
A key theme in Walter’s analysis is the significance of status and identity politics. She asserts that while individuals may endure economic hardships and social issues, losing their perceived status is intolerable. For instance, within the Republican Party, a significant majority of members are white, mirroring an identity-based political alignment contrary to a more ideologically driven party structure.
On the Democratic side, diversity is reflected in its support base, where a majority of African Americans, Latinos, Asians, Muslims, and Jews align with the party. This illustrates the stark racial and ethnic divides informing American political affiliations.
Walter delves deeper into the psychological drivers of violence in her book, stating, “those who can make people believe absurdities can also make them commit atrocities.” In the contemporary context, she suggests that those who instigate violence often stem from groups that have previously held dominance and are now witnessing a decline in their status.
These groups perpetuate myths that emphasize their historic role as founders of the nation, fostering a narrative that they are entitled to governance and control. Such beliefs can be exploited to justify violent actions, particularly by those who feel threatened by shifting power dynamics.
When asked about the possibility of a civil war breaking out in the United States, Walter conveys caution. While she does not believe an immediate civil war is imminent, she stresses that the persistent conditions of anocracy and identity politics elevate the risk each year the government fails to implement necessary reforms.
Walter describes potential civil unrest not as a traditional civil war involving widespread battles but rather as a more complex form of insurgency or guerrilla warfare. In this scenario, various militias might engage in sporadic violence across the country, operating both independently and sometimes in coordination, avoiding direct confrontation with the military.
The discussion shifts to preventative measures against civil conflict. Walter asserts that enhancing democracy and fostering inclusive political parties are essential. Simple but effective regulatory measures, especially regarding social media’s role in spreading incendiary content, could also substantially mitigate political violence.
Walter emphasizes that regulation should focus on the algorithms that amplify polarizing messages rather than censorship of user-generated content. By addressing how tech giants spread divisive narratives, the potential for societal unrest could be reduced significantly.
Reflecting on people’s disbelief in the possibility of civil war in the United States, Walter attributes this mindset to a deep-seated national pride and a tendency to ignore negative trends in society. Many Americans have enjoyed a historically prosperous and stable era since the end of World War II, fostering a sense of security that leads to a status quo bias—believing today’s circumstances will remain unchanged.
However, Walter warns that the U.S. has a history of civil strife, reminding that America has previously undergone one of the most devastating civil wars in history. As such, she emphasizes that the prospect of internal conflict should not be dismissed outright, even if it seems unfathomable to many.
In conclusion, Barbara Walter leaves readers pondering what keeps her awake at night and what instills hope for the future of American democracy. The nuanced, complex landscape of political identity and status dynamics remains at the forefront of her analysis, emphasizing the importance of acknowledging and addressing these critical issues to secure a stable and unified future.
image source from：voiceofsandiego
