With the potential introduction of a 20.9% tariff on Mexican tomatoes set to take effect on July 14, many restaurant owners in the U.S. are bracing for significant price increases and severe impacts to their businesses.
Teresa Razo, who owns two Argentine-Italian restaurants in Southern California, has voiced her deep concern, stating, “I give it three months, and then we go bankrupt.” Her restaurants rely heavily on tomatoes for essential dishes, such as salads and marinara sauce for pizzas and pastas.
The impending tariffs stem from the U.S. Commerce Department’s decision to withdraw from the nearly three-decade-old Tomato Suspension Agreement, a trade deal that has historically protected U.S. tomato growers from what they allege to be unfairly priced Mexican imports. The department’s decision was justified by claims that the current agreement has failed to shield American growers from “dumping,” the practice whereby goods are sold at artificially low prices to gain market share.
Consumer prices for field-grown tomatoes were approximately $1.70 per pound as of May 2025, and experts project these tariffs could result in a 10% increase in tomato prices, alongside a 5% drop in demand according to a professor of agribusiness at Arizona State University, Timothy Richards.
The U.S. is the leading market for Mexican tomato exports, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture has indicated that the tariffs are likely to decrease tomato imports from Mexico and push prices higher for consumers.
While some U.S. growers are welcoming the tariffs, arguing that it’s time to protect domestic agriculture, the issue is highly contentious. Robert Guenther, executive vice president of the Florida Tomato Exchange, stated that for over three decades, prior agreements have not effectively prevented dumping practices by some Mexican producers.
Conversely, Mexican tomato growers like Walberto Solorio, president of the Baja California Agricultural Council, argue that only minor violations should not warrant the termination of an entire trade agreement. He posits that the challenges are more politically motivated rather than based on market realities.
Businesses and consumers are likely to feel the negative implications of these tariffs. Razo noted that if her restaurant is forced to raise menu prices, it could deter customers from dining out as frequently, stating, “Somebody that would dine out three times a week, maybe now they’ll do it once or twice.”
Some brands like Heinz and DiGiorno have managed to circumvent the impending tariffs by sourcing only domestically grown tomatoes for their products, providing some relief in the looming crisis.
Meanwhile, other small businesses, such as Appollonia’s Pizza in Los Angeles, are contemplating how to absorb the increased costs rather than immediately shifting them onto consumers. Co-owner Justin De Leon expressed his desire to sustain the restaurant’s operations without passing on the extra burden to customers.
As restaurateurs and consumers face uncertainty, many like Razo are forced into a position of waiting and watching. Razo has expressed her reluctance to constantly check news updates concerning the tariffs, underscoring the mental toll the situation has taken on her, and calling it an unnecessary source of instability and fear in the industry. “We don’t need more of that; we already have enough,” she said.
Guenther has asserted confidence in the capability of American farmers to produce sufficient tomatoes year-round, aided by technological innovations and diverse agricultural practices. Nonetheless, Solorio from Baja California counters that the extensive audits and compliance checks of Mexican imports confirm adherence to trade laws, arguing that the accusations against Mexican producers of dumping lack substantiation.
De Leon, who balances his tomato sourcing between Mexican and Californian produce based on seasonal availability, has also found himself grappling with rising cheese prices due to other tariffs affecting essential pizza ingredients.
The growing complexity of the current trade landscape has restaurant owners like Razo and De Leon navigating through uncertain futures as they seek strategies to adapt, while hoping for a swift resolution to the growing tariff-related concerns that threaten their businesses’ viability in a challenging economic climate.
image source from：wsvn
