Few things in Chicago are quite as iconic as the beloved “L” lines that criss-cross the city, providing rapid transit access to millions of residents.
Beyond the train lines, Chicago has a fleet of 1,966 buses, bringing car-free transportation to all of the city’s 77 neighborhoods — and beyond.
But soon it could all be gone.
The Regional Transit Authority is the local governing body overseeing public transit in the Chicago region, responsible for not just the Chicago Transit Authority, but the Metra and Pace Suburban Bus networks as well.
The RTA covers most of northeast Illinois, including Cook, DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will counties — totaling eight million out of the state’s 12 million people.
Despite providing transit access for a majority of Illinois’ population, the RTA is in serious financial trouble — a fiscal cliff the agency describes as a “doomsday scenario.”
With the end of COVID-era federal funding — which provided over $3 billion to the RTA through Biden administration relief acts — the RTA now faces a $771 million budget deficit, according to ABC 7 Chicago.
Today those federal funds represent roughly 20% of current operating costs, according to the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning.
If the federal funding, which is being phased out between this and next year, isn’t replaced, the loss will cause major cuts to transit operations and a “vicious cycle” of lower ridership, lower revenue and further cuts, according to CMAP.
The RTA estimates the cuts needed to balance the budget would have catastrophic impacts on the city.
To meet the shortfall, the agency would need to cut 40% of service, according to a March 21 press release.
That means leaving one in five Chicago workers without transit access for their daily commute.
Pace would cut all weekend bus service, Metra would end morning and evening services and 3,000 transit jobs would disappear overnight.
It’s likely 50 CTA stations would be closed, and four out of the city’s eight “L” lines — at minimum — would see drastically reduced service or be shuttered entirely.
This would likely mean shortened Brown and Green Lines, a cut-in-half Blue Line and a total end to the Yellow, Purple, Orange and Pink Lines, according to Streetsblog Chicago.
The trains that still run would have to be cut by around 25%, and 58% of the city’s bus routes would be eliminated.
The transit system is a source of pride and economic growth for Chicago.
But if the system isn’t funded, it’ll shrink smaller than the bus networks in Madison, Wis. or the Kansas City metro, according to the RTA.
Chicago’s already fraught traffic and parking would also take a turn for the even-worse, as transit riders would get shunted onto the city’s roads, according to CBS News Chicago.
But the budget shortfall won’t just inconvenience commuters.
If the RTA doesn’t get a fresh influx of cash by the end of the Illinois General Assembly’s spring session in May, the entire Chicago region will face an economic catastrophe.
If the “doomsday scenario” happens, Illinois and its surrounding states are projected to suffer up to $2.6 billion in economic losses, according to Crain’s Chicago Business.
Although the deficit is only $771 million, the RTA has asked the state for an additional $1.5 billion in annual funding, according to the RTA’s 2024 Operating Budget and Two-Year Financial Plan.
This would raise the agency’s annual budget from $3.9 billion to $5.4 billion and comes alongside a five-year capital investment plan totaling $9.5 billion, which would fund over 250 transit projects across the region, according to the Regional Capital Program.
This would be a significant increase from previous funding levels, but the budget includes money for major projects like the Red Line Extension Project that will still be covered by already allocated federal funds.
Although the RTA is requesting an additional $1.5 billion from Illinois, the benefits are well worth the price tag.
The RTA — through the Metra, Pace and CTA — provides more than 1.2 million rides a day within the Chicago region, with special events and non-commuter trips even outpacing pre-COVID daily transit numbers, according to Mass Transit Magazine.
The additional funding would allow the RTA to improve existing service, reduce wait times and close transit gaps, boosting the city’s economy and reducing traffic, according to WTTW News.
A November 2023 study of transit funding projects found increased funding would lead to a “virtuous cycle” of better efficiency, higher usage and more transit revenue, according to The Urban Institute.
Transit has proved a hot-button issue between Chicago and the state government.
State officials have pushed for greater integration of Pace, Metra and the CTA under the RTA as a condition of providing the funding, citing issues with system cohesion and CTA leadership.
Some legislators have indicated there will be no funding agreement — at all — without system reform, according to WBEZ Chicago.
Reforming the region’s transit system to synchronize operations would likely improve system efficiency in the long run and have received support from RTA Chairman Kirk Dillard, according to The Chicago-Sun Times.
But the problem is much nearer than it may seem, limiting time for reform to take place before Chicago hits the fiscal cliff.
If the funding gap isn’t met by the May 31 end of the General Assembly’s session, the RTA’s 2026 budget — and the impending cuts — are set in stone.
Once it’s gone, restoring transit service could take five or more years to implement, according to Block Club Chicago.
By meeting the RTA’s $1.5 billion request, the state government has the chance to invest in the city — and the state’s — future.
Chicago depends on robust transit — we can’t throw it away.
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