As South Korea approaches a snap presidential election next month, concerns are mounting regarding reports that the Trump administration is contemplating withdrawing thousands of U.S. military personnel stationed in the country.
According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, based on unnamed defense officials, about 4,500 troops may be relocated to other areas in the Indo-Pacific, including Guam.
This proposal, still not finalized or presented to President Trump, has stoked long-standing fears about the future of the approximately 28,500 U.S. troops in South Korea.
Such worries began during Trump’s first term, when he expressed that allied nations were not contributing enough to maintain the U.S. military presence.
Although troop withdrawal was not on the agenda during Trump’s summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, reports indicated that Trump had requested the Pentagon to consider downsizing U.S. forces in South Korea prior to their 2018 meeting in Singapore.
Despite these considerations, which did not come to fruition, the aftermath of the Singapore summit saw Trump suspend joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises, a move that was viewed as a significant concession to North Korea.
Trump articulated this decision, saying, “We will be saving a tremendous amount of money. Plus, it is very provocative.”
The summits, however, failed to result in the denuclearization agreement that many had anticipated.
In his 2022 memoir, Mark Esper, who served as Trump’s Secretary of Defense, recalled encounters where Trump persistently pushed for a full withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea, but aides would dissuade him from the idea.
During these discussions, Mike Pompeo, then Secretary of State, suggested making the withdrawal a secondary term priority, to which Trump responded with a smile and a noncommittal agreement.
Given these historical tensions, an increasing number of South Korean politicians and commentators have begun advocating for the development of an independent nuclear arsenal to diminish reliance on U.S. security guarantees.
These issues have been central to the current presidential campaign in South Korea.
Conservative candidate Kim Moon-soo expressed grave concerns about the potential reduction of U.S. forces during a meeting hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Korea, stating, “Our main interest is maintaining the U.S. military’s presence in South Korea without any issues.”
Referring to Trump’s past advocacy for increased financial contributions from Seoul for U.S. troop upkeep, he emphasized the seriousness of a potential drawdown of forces for South Korean security.
Kim also criticized liberal frontrunner Lee Jae-myung for previously expressing skepticism about U.S. military presence, warning that under Lee, troop withdrawals could become a reality.
In response to the reports, Lee’s Democratic Party spokesperson Han Min-soo advised caution against interpreting the unfolding situation as confirmed, categorizing it as speculation.
However, he reaffirmed the Democratic Party’s commitment to strengthening the U.S.-South Korea alliance.
In an official statement, South Korea’s foreign ministry denied any discussions related to troop drawdowns with Washington, asserting that the U.S. military presence is a vital symbol and backbone of the alliance between the two nations.
A ministry spokesperson declared, “South Korea and the U.S. will continue to maintain and strengthen a strong joint defense posture.”
U.S. military officials have consistently expressed reservations regarding reductions in troop size in South Korea.
During a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing last April, U.S. Forces Korea Commander Gen. Xavier Brunson deemed troop withdrawal “problematic,” while U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Commander Adm. Samuel Paparo Jr. cautioned that it would elevate the risk of a North Korean invasion.
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