The South Coast Air Quality Management District is poised to vote on two significant rules aimed at phasing out natural gas-powered household water heaters and heating systems in the Los Angeles basin, a move that has sparked fierce debate among various stakeholders.
Under these proposed regulations, manufacturers would be required to sell an increasing percentage of zero-emission heating appliances, starting with 30% by 2027.
If they continue to sell natural gas appliances, they would incur fees, with the aim of encouraging a shift towards cleaner alternatives.
As per the district, home appliances are some of the largest contributors to smog-causing pollutants still prevalent in the L.A. area.
Officials believe that these new measures could eliminate the second-largest source of pollutants from any regulatory action taken in the past several decades.
The rules would not require consumers to replace their existing appliances immediately.
However, they will have the option to purchase zero-emission heat pumps powered by electricity when their current natural gas units, specifically water heaters and furnaces, need to be replaced.
Each year, approximately 200,000 furnaces and 300,000 water heaters in the region will be due for replacement based on their expected lifespans—25 years for heating systems and 15 years for water heaters.
While the cost of installing a heat pump varies, estimates show that replacing an entire HVAC system may cost about the same or even less than a natural gas system.
On the other hand, substituting a natural gas water heater with a heat pump could cost consumers an additional $2,000, and replacing just a furnace could cost $8,000 more.
Contractors and developers have expressed strong opposition to the phaseout, highlighting concerns that the fees levied on manufacturers would ultimately be passed down to consumers, landlords, and businesses.
“This money is not coming out of thin air,” said Brian Johsz, advocacy manager for the Los Angeles County Business Federation.
He described the regulations as a “solution in search of a problem,” emphasizing that they place an extra financial burden on residents already struggling with rising costs of living.
In contrast, SoCalGas representatives argue that these new rules would limit consumer choices and lead to higher costs for appliances.
They also contend that the regulations may conflict with federal law, as they effectively ban appliances covered under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act.
“Our consumers will be forced to pay hundreds of dollars more to replace gas appliances,” Kevin Barker, a senior manager for SoCalGas’s energy and environmental policy, wrote in a letter to the district.
According to Barker, it is not in the public interest to increase the upfront costs of affordable energy options at a time when consumers are seeking cost-effective solutions.
However, air quality officials argue that consumers could benefit from savings by switching to electric heaters.
Between 2027 and 2061, the projected shift from natural gas to electricity could result in collective annual savings of $191 million to $250 million on utility bills for residents in the four-county region, according to estimates from the district.
The proposed regulations provide manufacturers with two compliance options: they can either sell only zero-emission units by 2027 or pay a fee for each natural gas appliance sold.
Funds collected from these fees will be directed towards incentives that assist low-income residents and landlords in acquiring heat pumps.
Environmental advocacy groups demand swifter action from the air agency, stressing that the Los Angeles region continues to suffer from the worst smog in the nation despite decades of effort to improve air quality.
“There are still a lot of emission reductions that are being left on the table that will either have to be taken up with subsequent rules or are being foregone,” remarked Chris Chavez, deputy policy director with the Clean Air Coalition.
The original plans by the air quality agency were more ambitious, aiming for a full transition to 100% zero-emission water heaters and furnaces by 2031.
However, following pushback from businesses and gas companies regarding affordability, the air district revised its proposal.
According to the current draft, the compliance targets are set at 30% for water heaters and furnaces sold by 2027, increasing to 50% by 2029, 75% by 2033, and reaching 90% by 2036.
Manufacturers would pay fees ranging from $500 to $50 for every natural gas appliance sold in the region.
The air district estimates that by 2061, 90% of all water heaters and furnaces in the area will be zero emissions.
Despite significant reductions from the initial proposal, as currently written, the new regulations are projected to decrease emissions by six tons per day instead of the anticipated ten tons per day under the original rules.
Nihal Shrinath, an attorney for the Sierra Club, criticized the amendments, stating, “We’ve seen the Trump administration waging a war on clean energy, and concurrently, the South Coast district is caving to gas lobbying efforts and weakening a regulation they have been developing for years.”
He emphasized that the air district is currently out of compliance with federal air quality standards, highlighting the urgency of the situation for the nation’s most polluted air basin.
A public hearing and vote on these proposed measures are scheduled for Friday, representing a crucial step in updating emissions regulations that have been in place since 1978 and 1982.
According to the non-partisan research group Rocky Mountain Institute, gas appliances in the Los Angeles region, primarily water heaters and furnaces, contribute more nitrogen oxides and fine particulate matter to the atmosphere than the collective emissions from power plants, refineries, and oil and gas production.
The basin’s ten million heating appliances emit nearly seven tons of nitrogen oxides and 1.5 tons of fine particles daily.
For context, oil refineries, the largest industrial polluters in the area, emit less than this amount.
Vehicles remain the leading source of nitrogen oxides emissions, accounting for 11.5 tons each day.
The new regulations promise significant public health benefits, with potential savings in health expenses estimated at $59 billion from 2027 to 2053.
The air district anticipates that pollution reductions will lead to an average of 280 fewer new asthma cases, 44 fewer emergency room visits for respiratory issues, and a reduction of 6,100 lost school days each year, not accounting for further health benefits attributed to the decrease in fine particulate matter.
Similar regulatory actions have been taken in the Bay Area, which enacted rules in 2023 mandating zero-emission water heaters by 2027 and furnaces by 2029, along with large commercial water heaters by 2031.
However, there have been amendments to these rules to provide more flexibility for manufacturers to comply.
Political dynamics in the region reflect these tensions, with larger cities like Los Angeles and Long Beach supporting the South Coast district’s proposals, while several conservative municipalities, including Huntington Beach, Fullerton, Riverside, and Rancho Palos Verdes, oppose the measures.
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