Strip resorts in Las Vegas are bracing for a soft summer visitation season, though projections indicate a promising rebound as fall approaches and continued growth into the fourth quarter leading into 2026.
These insights were detailed by gaming industry analyst Barry Jonas, managing director of Truist Securities, following his discussions with major casino executives in Las Vegas last Friday.
Jonas attributes the expected summer lull to seasonal trends rather than negative consumer sentiment, emphasizing that the industry does not exhibit fundamental weaknesses.
According to Jonas, operators are anticipating a dip in attendance driven by traditional summer slowdowns, coupled with weak convention business. He notes there are no significant indicators of consumer weakness impacting the overall performance.
In his report, Jonas stated, “Operators see a softer summer driven by weak convention business and summer seasonality with no real callouts around consumer weakness.”
He predicts a relatively improved third quarter with some impact from a shift in Jewish holidays from the fourth quarter, leading to a soft comparison.
Despite the dip, casino revenues remain robust, with hotel bookings and rates showing improvement as the industry heads into the latter part of the year. Looking forward, Jonas highlights a favorable setup for 2026, fostered by a strong events and conventions calendar.
Moreover, the recent renovation of the Las Vegas Convention Center is expected to conclude by the end of the year, just ahead of events such as the ConEx-ConAgg conference, which is anticipated to attract around 100,000 attendees in March 2026.
The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) has projected a record number of events and expected attendees for 2026, suggesting a robust recovery for the hospitality sector.
Local operators, including Boyd Gaming Corp., Red Rock Resorts, and Golden Entertainment, observed steady performances in the market, driven by strong employment and wage growth, elevated home prices, and reduced dependency on equity markets, according to Jonas.
He commented, “We think the public operators remain disciplined and don’t intend to chase the low end of business, given that those customers will often rotate from promo to promo.”
Concerns regarding tariffs have caused some hesitation in the gaming manufacturing sector. Manufacturers reported a moment of caution in sales from operators in April around Liberation Day, influenced by uncertainties surrounding tariffs and overall macroeconomic conditions.
However, larger manufacturers, including Light and Wonder, have experienced a return to normal product sales trends, while smaller players are still exhibiting hesitance. Manufacturers have adapted by adjusting their supply chains on international shipments, with several relocating production to offshore facilities, such as in Mexico.
Jonas also pointed out that the Macao market is showing signs of recovery, hinting at broader industry revitalization.
Examining individual companies, the following highlights were noted:
For Caesars, the second and third quarter trends show softening due to limited group capacity influenced by LVCVA and Venetian renovations. The opening of Hard Rock Las Vegas at the former Mirage site may impact Caesars significantly, but with the Seminole Tribe property projected to launch in late 2027, there is ample time for preparation.
MGM sees a continuation of solid performance despite the recent downturn in Canadian tourism. Management affirmed that the convention business outlook is not fundamentally flawed, as historical data for June and July suggests fluctuations in business volume. Future bookings for 2026 are reportedly on the rise, with a double-digit percentage increase.
Among Boyd Gaming, management disclosed that its properties, excluding the Orleans, have modestly outperformed the market, which overall exhibited a slight decline. The company anticipates capitalizing on its Cadence Crossing site opening in 2026, alongside ongoing regional developments across the nation.
Red Rock’s management noted consistent trends in the locals market but advised caution regarding July’s performance, traditionally a weaker month. The company is evaluating three significant growth opportunities in Las Vegas, which include expansions in Durango, Inspirada—located in a high-net-worth area but less developed—along with a substantial project at Cactus, strategically positioned off a major freeway.
Golden Entertainment has reported some volatility at the Strat, observing stronger weekend performance in contrast to midweek slumps, with expectations for heightened activity in September as the convention calendar improves. However, visibility remains low, given that 30 percent of bookings occur within a week of arrival. Golden anticipates generating around “a couple million dollars” in profit this year alongside increased traffic at the Strat, given the success of its Atomic Golf venture, which generated $20 million in revenue in the first nine months of the previous year.
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